Tim Tebow vs. Jon Gruden

We all know that Jon Gruden is a HUGE fan of Tim Tebow's. It was Gruden who called Tebow "concrete cyanide." Here is some good video from Gruden's workout with Tebow.

Allow me to float my Tebow-Gruden theory: If a team with a tenuous coaching situation -- say the Jaguars -- drafts Tebow, I think they immediately become players for Gruden in 2011.

NFL Tebow: Latest Draft Scenarios

Based on reading the various tea leaves, here is the first/only ranking of Tebow draft scenarios, from most likely:

(1) Bills trade up to 20-30 (1st Round)
(1b) Bills trade up to 31-32 (1st Round)
(2) Browns at No. 38 overall
(3) Bills trade up from No. 41 to 33-36
(4) Vikings at No. 30 (1st Round)
(5) Raiders at No. 39 overall
(6) Patriots trade up to 33-36
(7) Jaguars trade up to 33-36

I do not think that Tebow will last longer than the Raiders at No. 39, thus no (realistic) scenario where the Bills take him at No. 41. Please note the scenario I don't list (yet): Bills at No.9.

The reason I think the Bills are going to have to move up from No. 41 into the 1st round if they really want to get Tebow is best supported by this recent quote from Bill Belichick, on the dramatic new competitive dynamics of the 2nd round:

I kind of think the second round will now be like the first round. Take those [top] 32 players out of there, whoever they are, now you're starting all over again for that second round. And I can see it being approached more as that first round. In the past, you kind of rolled into that round. Now, to actually stop and have the whole night to sit there and think about it and talk to other teams and develop a new strategy. Everybody does that on the second day; now we have three days. It's a different dynamic.

The Bills -- or any team that really wants Tebow -- can't risk what will undoubtedly be a bidding frenzy around 2nd-round picks. The only choice is to trade up to the back of the 1st round.

(Similarly, I don't think that the Broncos' trade for the 43rd pick -- to go with their own 45th pick -- will be enough to trade into the 1st round to get Tebow, nor will they want to.)

NFL Tebow: King Likes Vikings

In his SI column this week, Peter King picks up on the Vikings meme from last Friday:

Favre succeeded by ... Tebow?The Vikings, who pick 30th in the first round, had a private workout with Florida quarterback/NFL temptorTim TebowSaturday. Though I think it's a long shot that Minnesota would use the 30th pick of the first round to take Tebow, it's interesting that coachBrad Childressand VP of personnelRick Spielman, who have the draft-day juice, were both present for the workout, according to a Florida source.

All along I've felt Tebow needs to go to a spot where he can have a peaceful redshirt year or two, and assumingBrett Favreplays one or two more years (now we're getting ahead of ourselves), Tebow to the Vikes makes some sense, particularly if Childress feels he's the kind of prospect that two of the quarterback coaches he admires most --Andy ReidandMike Holmgren-- think he is.

Watch the Vikings at No. 30. I don't think it's a long shot at all -- and certainly at least as likely (if not more) than the Bills picking Tebow at No. 9.

NFL Tebow: Draft Guessing Games

Ten days from the 1st round of the NFL Draft, and the Gators mainstream media are getting in on the "Where Will Tebow Go" storyline:

The Palm Beach Post's Ben Volin breaks down the seven teams most likely to draft Tebow -- or certainly the seven that have shown the most interest. (Alphabetical order? Boo!)

The Orlando Sentinel's Andrea Adelson starts her own division-by-division series, starting with the AFC East, but hitting all the divisions by the time we get to Draft Week.

And the Gainesville Sun continues its own division-by-division coverage, which has the added benefit of including mock-ups of Tebow's jersey on every NFL team (like the one below).

I am going to post my most up-to-date projection on where Tebow will go, from most likely to least likely, a little later this afternoon.


Hmmm... (Photo via G'ville Sun via NFLShop.com)

NFL Tebow: Broncos Interested?

I don't doubt the story from Peter King at all, but I do question why the Broncos would work out Tim Tebow this weekend.

Denver has the No. 11 overall pick -- they aren't using that on Tebow. They also have the 13th pick of the 2nd round; the only problem there is that Tebow won't be around.

Oh, and there's the not-inconsequential factor that the Broncos just traded for Brady Quinn, who isn't even guaranteed to be the starter (incumbent Kyle Orton).

Now, maybe the Broncos are trying to psyche a team into thinking they might take Tebow at No. 11 and trigger some kind of trade-up -- or maybe they will try to trade to the top of the 2nd.

I don't know. Of all the teams with publicized interest in Tebow, the Broncos seem like the worst circumstantial fit.

Tebow in NYC for NFL Draft Week

As first referenced here yesterday, Tim Tebow being the EA NCAA Football 2011 cover star means he will be in New York City the week of the NFL Draft for the EA launch party on April 20. With Tebow in my town, does that mean the long-awaited Tebow-Teblog meeting could happen?

NFL Tebow: The Vikings Theory

For those reading the pre-draft tea leaves about where Tim Tebow might be drafted -- and by whom -- some very good fodder today:

Brad Childress will be a special guest at Urban Meyer's annual coaching clinic today in Gainesville. While he is there, Childress will watch Tim Tebow work out.

Let's review the circumstantial evidence of a fit:

*The Vikings have the 30th pick of the 1st round of the draft, which would allow them to leapfrog the scrum at the top of the 2nd round. It also jibes with the emerging conventional wisdom that Tebow will get taken before the 1st round is over.

*The Vikings have a need at the position: They do not have an imminent -- this season -- need for a QB, but they do have an eventual need, as early as 2011.

The notion of Brett Favre mentoring Tebow is probably enough to implode the minds of the many who dislike both Favre and Tebow. It is the ultimate Venn Diagram of Schadenfreude.

*Childress is obviously close with Meyer: When he asks Meyer about Tebow and Meyer tells him Tebow is the greatest football player he has ever coached, it will resonate.

*Childress has done well with Florida players: He picked Percy Harvin last year, and don't forget, Harvin was considered a "controversial" pick (right up until he got on the field).

*Tebow won't be around when the Vikings pick again at the end of the 2nd round. And he may very well be gone in the last picks of the 1st round -- certainly the first few picks of the 2nd.

*Non-football considerations: Beyond the winning, I think that the Vikings saw what kind of attention they got for having Brett Favre; that would continue with Tebow on the team.

(Don't get me wrong: I have become convinced that teams won't spend a 1st-round pick -- or even a 2nd-round pick -- on a marketing gimmick. But Tebow presents unique p.r. upside, in addition to his substantial upside as a player prospect.)

It's not like Childress is making a special trip down to Gainesville to see Tebow. But, circumstantially, the evidence is enough to put the Vikings in the Tebow derby.

Tim Tebow: EA NCAA Football 2011 Cover

The news is out: Tim Tebow will be the cover athlete of EA's NCAA Football 2011 game. (Read ESPN.com's report from the cover shoot here.)

This is entirely expected -- probably since Tebow's Heisman season. He is the face of college football -- not just last season or 2008 or 2007... but arguably the all-time face of the sport.

It is still unknown whether Tebow will be in New York City for the first night (or nights) of the NFL Draft, but he will almost assuredly be at EA's annual pre-draft event for its featured athletes, which happens a few nights before the draft is held.

EA becomes the second huge endorsement deal that Tebow has secured: His Nike deal was officially announced today. EA is next. (Your move, Gatorade.)

Oh, a fun little detail from the ESPN piece: The Madden '11 producer said that Tebow will have the top-rated "trucking" ability among any quarterback in the game.

Image from ESPN.com's Jon Robinson. Think that's going to be the cover image?

NFL Tebow: To Raiders at No. 39?

As we look at that pile of potential Tebow drafters near the top of the 2nd round -- Eagles at 37, Browns at 38, Raiders at 39, Bills at 41 -- I had always kind of joked about Tebow going to the Raiders. It feels like the kind of pick Al Davis would really want to make -- and how odd would it be to see Tebow in the silver and black, among those crazy fans?

Well, now it looks like the Raiders might actually have interest in Tebow. But again, I don't think he slips past the Browns at 38. The Raiders would have to be willing to trade up to the end of the 1st to get him. And the Raiders already gave up their 2011 1st-round pick to the Patriots for Richard Seymour. (Great anecdote by Gil Brandt in the story.)

Tebow to Bills No. 9 Overall: "No Way"

Just to close the loop on yesterday's post that the NFP had Tim Tebow going to the Bills at No. 9 overall in their latest mock, a leading Bills beat writer says "No way." And I trust him.

The implication: Bills at No. 9 in the 1st is probably an artificially high ceiling, with the more natural ceiling being either Bob Tebow's "Top 15" or Gil Brandt's inside the "Top 20."

If the Bills really do want Tebow but aren't willing to spend a Top 10 pick on him, they will likely have to move up from their current position at No. 41, where Kiper has them taking Tebow.

Tebow likely won't still be around, going either late in the 1st or within the first few picks of the 2nd round. To get Tebow, the Bills are going to have to trade up.

NFL Tebow: No. 9 Overall to Bills?

National Football Post throws down the gauntlet: Tim Tebow going No. 9 -- overall -- to the Bills.

As I have written, this is Tebow's ceiling. This will be the highest you see him in any mock draft. (It doesn't seem to be informed by reporting, but as a stunt to get attention: NFP FTW.)

Ironically, Mel Kiper got a lot of attention today for upgrading Tebow to Bills taking him with the No. 9 pick... of the 2nd round. Umm...not quite the same.

Here is the situation for Buffalo: How badly do they want Tebow? Because there is a very very good chance that he won't make it to them when they pick again at the 41st overall pick.

They could try to trade down, because Tebow would likely be available in the teens or early-20s, but (a) there's no guarantee, and (b) doubt anyone would trade with them.

If they really want him and think that there is no other way to get him? That's the once-improbable scenario where Tim Tebow is taken in the Top 10 of the 2010 NFL Draft.

UPDATE: Bills beat reporter Allen Wilson has a response to this "NO WAY," and it's based on conversations he has had with players in the front office. I think Wilson is right -- if the Bills want Tebow, they will have to hope he drops to that 9th pick of the 2nd round... or trade up into the back of the 1st round.

NFL Tebow: Brandt Says Top 20

NFL.com draft guru Gil Brandt -- who has had Tim Tebow pegged as a 1st-round pick longer than anyone -- thinks Tebow will go Top 20. (via Omar Kelly of the FLSS)

More from Kelly: "(NFL.com's Mike) Lombardi said he believes Tim Tebow's stock is rising NOW because the NFL team's higher ups have finally begun evaluating him."

NFL Tebow: Kiper Says Bills at 41

Per Andrea Adelson, Mel Kiper says that he thinks Tim Tebow will go to the Bills at No. 41 overall, the 9th pick of the 2nd round.

As I have written here, I think that 41 is his floor -- more likely than not, the Bills will have to move up to get him. They should be nervous about the Browns picking 6th in the round, not to mention a team trading up with the Rams-Lions-Bucs-Chiefs. Not to mention Tebow going in the 1st round.

(Interesting to see Mel bend to the "reality" of mock drafts: Even the best draftnik needs to sublimate their opinion of the player's value for what will actually happen.)

NFL Tebow: Bound for Browns?

Tim Tebow reportedly met with the Cleveland Browns yesterday. Mike Holmgren was at Tebow's Pro Day last month and had complimentary things to say. Holmgren has also jettisoned Cleveland's previous QBs, and seems intent on starting over, grooming his own guy.

I would rate the Browns as a "1st tier" team in the Tebow discussion -- the handful of teams most likely to draft Tebow.

There is no way they use their 1st-round pick (No. 7 overall) to take Tebow, but they pick No. 6 in Round 2 -- a primetime spot for Tebow, three picks ahead of the Bills.

But I suspect that if Holmgren really is targeting Tebow at the 38th overall pick, he will be holding his breath for those first 4 picks of the round to see if the Rams/Lions/Bucs/Chiefs trade out to a team that wants to hop over Cleveland (or Buffalo) to get him... or even if the Eagles snipe Tebow with the 5th pick of the round, one spot before the Browns pick.

Here's an X-factor: If the Bills are really interested, they may get very squeamish about having to sit through the Eagles and, especially, the Browns (and perhaps even the Raiders, who pick 8th in the 2nd round).

Buffalo could be one of those teams that spends the overnight time after the 1st round -- if Tebow is even still on the board -- wrangling with the Rams/Lions/Bucs/Chiefs to move up to their spot to get him.

NFL Tebow: Jersey Gallery

The popular game among folks who cover Tebow closely -- or simply want to appeal to the huge appetite nationally for all things Tebow -- is to weigh his fit on every NFL team.

Kudos to GatorSports.com and editor/blogger Jon McDonald for going the extra distance: Not just an analysis of each team's "Tebow need," but creating Tebow jerseys for every team.

Visually, this is a nice bookend to the college football preview magazine covers from last summer.

Here is a sampling, featuring the Patriots, Eagles and Bills -- all teams mentioned for their potential to draft Tebow inside the first two rounds of the Draft.




Per GatorSports.com, all images created via NFLShop.com.

The images don't reflect that teams may have players wearing No. 15 already. For example, Felton Huggins wears No. 15 on the Bills. I presume the 2nd-year WR would be happy to "donate" his number to Tebow in exchange for some kind of "gratuity."

NFL Tebow: Respect the Tebubble

I just tweeted this from my @danshanoff account:

Attention sports pundits: Saying "I don't think Tebow will last past the 2nd round" is no longer considered bold.

I ended it with a hashtag coining the word "Tebubble."

What is the Tebubble? It is the reality -- amid all the draftnik prognosticating and mock-ification of what will happen in two weeks -- that Tebow's stock is only going up.

By using the word "bubble," I do not mean to suggest that he is overvalued -- just that the stock is only going up from here until 16 days from now, not down.

Consider where we came from: Todd McShay labeling Tebow a 3rd- or 4th-round talent. There was some chit-chat of the Jags taking him at No. 10, and a little bit of 2nd-round talk (certainly around here).

Now, it is ludicrous to think that he would fall through the 2nd round and into the 3rd -- hence my tweet. He is a SOLID 2nd-rounder, at worst.

I said this last week: His FLOOR should be the mid-2nd round -- probably the Bills pick at No. 41. But, chances are, he will go higher than that.

Here is the biggest signal: No one is surprised -- well, except McShay and Kiper -- that Tebow's name is being tossed around as a late-1st-rounder.

Now, that could be GMs blowing smoke, but I suspect there is at least -- AT LEAST -- one team out there that would take Tebow at the back of the 1st round, unwilling to roll the dice that Tebow won't be swiped out from under them at the top of the 2nd, given that a frenzy of GMs will have 12 hours to try to convince the teams at the top of the 2nd to trade out so they can get Tebow at the top of the 2nd.

At the rate his draft stock his climbing, maybe Bob Tebow's "Top 15" prediction from two weeks ago will come true after all.

You are absolutely within your rights to disagree that Tim Tebow is a 1st-round (or even 2nd-round) prospect.

But you have to respect the Tebubble, because -- in the end -- your draft value is as simple as where you get taken.

UPDATE: NFL.com hops on the 1st-round bandwagon. Folks, we're still more than two weeks away and we're already here? Whew: Hang on....

Tim Tebow Signs With Nike

The news just broke, per ESPN's Adam Schefter: Tim Tebow has signed a marketing deal with Nike for shoes and apparel.

This is unsurprising, given Nike's deep relationship with the University of Florida. But Tebow is also the biggest star in college football -- and has emerged as one of the most marketable and talked-about athletes in the country. Tebow has a legion of die-hard followers and he can be the unique athlete who actually moves product with his endorsement.

Nike had to have him -- and got him, for the bargain price of $300,000 per year. Great fit.

But let's not overlook a much more profound point:

This is unprecedented. It is unprecedented for a rookie coming into the NFL who will, more likely than not, be a 2nd-round pick to get a monster endorsement deal from a Nike. It will be the biggest shoe/apparel deal that any NFL rookie in 2010 will sign. Including Sam Bradford.

But that's not where it ends: Not only will Tebow get the Nike deal, but he will get the EA deal (inevitably), as he will get the Gatorade deal. And that's just the obvious ones. Then there's the vitamin. The watch. The credit card. The automobile.

Tebow will defy the contraction among athlete endorsement deals. The question is when -- not if -- he will crack the Top 5 highest-paid endorsers in the NFL.

And all that while it is still in question whether or not he will take a snap as a starting QB in the NFL -- or more than a handful of snaps in his first year or two. If/when Tebow exceeds those limited expectations, even more money will follow.

But don't pay attention to the draftniks -- for a better estimate of Tebow's relevance to NFL fans and the companies that want to reach them, follow the money.

And if you think that an NFL owner of a struggling team isn't paying at least some attention (and giving some weight) to that when weighing in with his GM, coach and scouting staff, you're naive.

NFL Tebow: King on Eagles Interest

Following up last night's post evaluating draft interest in Tim Tebow from the Redskins and, now, the Eagles, here is the analysis from Peter King:

I have heard the Eagles will now focus on Tebow and are likely to join the parade of teams working him out and spending time with him. With seven picks in the first four rounds, Philadelphia has the ammo to go get the developmental quarterback Reid always likes to have on his roster.

As I said last night, Tebow wouldn't exactly be a complete project for Philly: He can come in and immediately run any of the Wildcat packages that were previously installed for Vick.

My "why not?" from last night suddenly looks like a "could very well be." At the very least, it was hardly a stretch to immediately put the Eagles in the Tebow Derby.

(h/t: Andrea Adelson)

NFL Tebow: Impact of McNabb Trade?

Just to show you that we can connect anything to Tim Tebow, let's take a quick look at what the Donovan McNabb trade to the Redskins might mean for Tebow's draft prospects:

In the deal, the Redskins traded their 2nd-round pick -- No. 37 overall -- to the Eagles. This -- combined with trading for a QB -- effectively ends any prospects the Redskins might draft Tebow.

It doesn't preclude them from trading other picks to get back to the top of the 2nd round, but it would seem odd if the Redskins traded picks to get to the top of the 2nd to take a QB, when they just traded the 2nd-rounder for... a QB.

How about the team now picking 37th overall -- the Eagles? Would Philadelphia have any interest in drafting Tim Tebow, perhaps replacing their old No. 5 with a new No. 5?

Kevin Kolb appears to be Philly's QB for the present -- and future. Mike Vick is likely not a long-term solution as a backup.

It doesn't feel like a dire team need to take Tim Tebow with this early 2nd-round pick -- but Tebow could replace Vick as backup QB (running any of the Wildcat packages that the team built for Vick over the past year) and develop into a potential replacement for Kolb in a few years.

To summarize: The Redskins would seem to be out of the hunt for Tebow, and the Eagles could join the group of suitors... but it doesn't seem like a sure thing.

UPDATE: Uber-Eagles fan Dan Levy, my colleague from the Sporting News, weighs in on this: "No chance."

Tim Tebow vs. Jim Kelly

Let's be clear: Jim Kelly has zero say in the Bills' draft strategy -- he might even tell you that the team has no business taking his advice. So when he says the Bills should draft Tim Tebow, it's like you or me saying the Bills should draft Tim Tebow.

Now, does that mean the Bills won't draft Tebow? Hardly. It would be a serious reach for them to take him at No. 9 overall, but I can't see them letting him get past them if he is available at No. 9 of the 2nd round, where the Bills next pick.

In that way, the Bills book-end Tebow's floor and ceiling. (Jim Kelly can feel free to use that analysis.)

NFL Tebow: 2nd Round Scenarios

Consider this post the companion to yesterday's post about the scenarios where Tim Tebow is drafted in the 1st round of the 2010 NFL Draft. Same set-up:

Three weeks from today, Tim Tebow will either be basking as the top-of-the-headlines coverage that he was drafted the night before, in the 1st round...

...or he will be anxiously waiting to see who drafts him in the 2nd round. If Tebow is NOT taken in the 1st round, "Where will Tebow go?" will be THE story of Friday morning before the 2nd round, even eclipsing Sam Bradford going No. 1 overall, 1st-round trades, whatever.

Consider that for a second: The draft status of a 2nd-round pick will be the No. 1 story of the NFL Draft, the morning after the 1st round of the draft is held. Unprecedented.

Regardless, if Tebow isn't drafted in the 1st round, the hours in between the end of the 1st round and the start of the 2nd round will be a frenzy of Tebow-related deal-making.

Now that Tebow has cleared the guaranteed contract that comes with being a 1st-round pick, a slew of teams will jockey to invest a 2nd-round pick on him.

In fact, I can't see Tebow going any later than the first few picks of the 2nd round. There are two main scenarios:

Scenario 1: A team with a natural selection at the top of the 2nd round will take him. The Rams, Lions, Bucks and Chiefs presumably don't want/need him. Then it gets interesting:

5th pick of the 2nd round: Redskins, who will be a hot suitor (if they don't get Bradford in Round 1).

6th pick: Browns, another team that could use a QB for the future -- Mike Holmgren had a lot to say about Tebow at his Pro Day in Gainesville.

7th pick: Raiders. You know Al Davis is hot to draft Tebow, if only because he appreciates Tebow's marketing value as much as any owner.

8th pick: Chargers. Unlikely.

9th pick: Bills. If Tebow is still around -- and, of course, presuming the Bills haven't taken Tebow with the 9th overall pick of the Draft the night before (where he is predicted to go by the latest mock draft of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) -- I assume they will draft him here. He will not drop beyond this point.

The Patriots have picks at No. 12 and No. 15 of the 2nd round. I just don't see Tebow slipping down to them at those points. Which leads to...

Scenario 2: A team trades up to the top of the round to get Tebow. I could see the talent-starved Rams, Lions, Bucks and Chiefs all willing to trade out of their positions in order to stockpile more picks later in the round -- or into the later rounds of the Draft.

This is where the Patriots -- if they really want Tebow -- can package one of their 3 2nd-round picks, along with later-round picks, to move up and get him, while still retaining at least two other 2nd-round picks they can use for a more pressing need.

But there are plenty of other teams that might want to trade up, including the Bills (9th pick of 2nd round), the Panthers (16th) or Cowboys (27th). And don't discount one of those teams picking between No. 5 and No. 7 in the round (Redskins, Browns, Raiders) -- fearing being jumped for Tebow -- trading up those few spots to secure him.

There you have it: I put Tebow's draft "floor" at the No. 9 pick of the 2nd round -- to the Bills. That's as far as he will fall; if he goes any lower, I will be very surprised.

The more likely scenario is that he goes ahead of that, perhaps as early as the 1st pick of the 2nd round, particularly given that teams can spend the entire night after the 1st round scheming and dealing to make their move for Tebow.

There will not be another installment of this series to cover the 3rd round -- three weeks from Saturday -- because Tebow will be long gone by then.

Tebow's status as a "Top 41" pick in the 2010 NFL Draft is "when," (and "to whom") not "if."

If the latest mock draft in the AJC is any indication, Tebow's stock is going up so quickly that by next week, we will have to revise this post to say "There's no way he's slipping out of the 1st round."

-- D.S.

No Fooling: Tebow Wonderlic Story a Fable

Appropriate for April Fool's Day, that story from a week ago about Tim Tebow futilely asking for a pre-Wonderlic prayer has been debunked by someone who was there.

NFL Tebow: Headed For 1st Round?

Three weeks from today, we will know whether Tim Tebow is selected as a 1st-round pick in the 2010 NFL Draft.

And signs point to Tebow sliding up from the top of the 2nd round into the 1st round.

If you consider that the conventional draftnik consensus is that Tebow is a 3rd- or 4th-round talent whose "intangibles" inflate his value to the 2nd round (always caveated with a "maybe"), it is nothing short of remarkable that Tebow is very much in the mix as a 1st-round pick (except to those of us who study the Tebow draft dynamic closely).

Let's look at the two prevailing scenarios that put him in the 1st round:

Scenario 1: He is taken in the top half of the 1st round of the Draft by the Bills (at No. 9) or the Jaguars (at No. 10) or, perhaps, by the Seahawks (at No. 14).

Appropriately enough for a player whose career is defined by superlatives, any of these scenarios would make it the most controversial draft pick in NFL history.

*The Bills are desperate enough for a "face" of the franchise -- not to mention a QB -- that they just might do it. If they want to be talked about, THIS would make them talked about.

*The Jaguars, oddly, have been very quiet -- perhaps too quiet -- about Tebow, perhaps glad that almost all of the public pressure (or presumption) to take him has dissipated.

*The Seahawks are motivated to create their own new direction under Pete Carroll. With a 1st-round pick in the Top 10, they could get a "need" player first, easing the pressure if they take a "want" player like Tebow. (Then again, Seattle just traded for Charlie Whitehurst.)

Scenario 2: He is taken at the end of the 1st round. Again: That Tebow is a 1st-round NFL pick -- at all, regardless of draft slot -- will be the story of the draft.

It is hard to pinpoint a particular team that might take him before the 1st round is over. But let's look at three options:

*Team uses its natural draft position: The Patriots draft 22nd, the Cowboys draft 27th, the defending champ Saints draft 32nd. All are confident enough to make a big splash.

*Team trades back: You could envision the Jaguars trading back from No. 10; picking Tebow in the late-20s feels much less controversial for Jacksonville than at No. 10.

*Team trades up: 1st-round picks cost a lot more in guaranteed contract than 2nd-round picks, but there are plenty of contenders who would rather stockpile late-round picks in exchange for their late-1st-round pick, swapping with a team that wants Tebow.

(Alternatively, the Patriots have 3 2nd-round picks -- plus Oakland's 1st-round pick in 2011 -- and could put together the package to trade up into the back of the 1st round. Then again, that seems very out-of-character for Belichick, who is a pick stock-piler.)

Here is where we net out -- three weeks away:

I originally thought Tebow was a lock to the Jags at No. 10. I eventually revised that, then assumed he would slip all the way through the 1st round -- but then get snapped up right at the top of the 2nd round, after a frenzy of deal-making in between the 1st and 2nd rounds.

But my other presumption has been that Tebow's draft stock is not going down -- only up. If his current floor is the top of the 2nd, the only movement will be into the 1st round.

I would be surprised -- but not shocked -- to see Tebow go to the Bills at No. 9 overall. I would be shocked -- but not surprised -- to see Tebow go to the Jaguars at No. 10 overall.

And I would not be surprised or shocked to see a team take Tebow before the 1st round is over.

The inaugural Thursday night primetime 1st round of the NFL Draft may start with the big story being Sam Bradford being drafted by the Rams (or perhaps forcing a trade to the Redskins).

But by the time the 1st round is over, the biggest story will be about which team has taken Tebow in the 1st round.

(If he isn't taken -- and by the time we get to three weeks from now, I am fairly convinced that the conventional wisdom will be that he IS going to be taken in the 1st round -- the big storyline will be which teams are angling to take him at the top of the 2nd round the next day.)

-- D.S.

UPDATE: The Falcons GM, Tom Dimitroff, told Tom Curran of NESN that Tebow won't make it out of the 1st round. Now, all pre-draft commentary from team executives should be run through a b.s. filter, but a guy who has Matt Ryan probably speaks more genuinely about QBs in the draft than GMs who actually need a QB.

UPDATE 2: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has Tebow going to the Bills with the No. 9 overall pick of the draft.

NFL Tebow vs. Andre Caldwell

Andre Caldwell has an interesting opinion about Tim Tebow's NFL prospects:

He needs time. He needs to sit behind one of those good quarterbacks for about three years because I know he's going to put in the work and the effort to be a great quarterback. He's going to learn. I don't think he's going to be an elite passer ever. But he's a playmaker. He'll get the ball there. He probably can't make the prettiest looking passes. But he's going to use what he has to his advantage--running, scrambling, making passes. He's got a strong arm and I think he can make the throws, but they may not be the prettiest.

To Bubba's credit, the Herald's Joe Goodman calls that "the best explanation of Tebow's abilities that I've heard." Agreed: Chalk one up for nuance!

NFL Tebow: Tour Hits New England

After spending some time in Buffalo, Tim Tebow has taken his pre-draft tour to Boston. According to reports, he is meeting with the Patriots -- including, according to the Boston Herald, dinner with Bill Belichick in the North End of Boston last night.

Given Belichick's (and Bob Kraft's) close relationship with Urban Meyer -- not to mention Belichick's longtime fascination with the implications for the single-wing in the NFL behind a bruising dual-threat QB -- the Pats' attention on Tebow is not surprising.

The Patriots have 3 2nd-round picks -- and there has been wide speculation that they might leverage those picks into selecting Tebow. Two issues:

(1) Tebow could be gone in the 2nd round before their picks come into play, forcing them to trade up to get him.

(2) Tebow may not make it to the 2nd round, period. His stock continues to climb, to the point where you are hearing mainstream outlets speculate on a 1st-round selection.

The big question: Given the Patriots' other pressing needs, would they use their No. 22 overall selection on Tebow? Or would they give up any of their 2nd-round picks to move up into the end of the 1st round to get him?

Don't discount one interesting thing: The Patriots hold the Raiders' 1st-round pick in the 2011 Draft.

If the Patriots really are serious about getting Tebow -- even if it has to happen in the 1st round -- they could use that Raiders 1st in '11 to make a move, either moving the Raiders' pick itself or their own 1st in 2011 (while holding on to the Raiders' pick).

The 1st round of the NFL Draft is in 23 days.