NFL Tebow: The Case For Success

ESPN.com's terrific Bruce Feldman tackled the Tebow debate in his column today (Insider subscription needed), and he brought in an NFL scout to dis, then ESPN colleague Seth Wickersham to make the point I've been trying to make (Seth does it more eloquently): The context of where Tebow lands matters... a lot. Here's Wickersham:

Fact is, nobody knows how Tebow will do in the pros.

There are too many unknown variables. Nobody knows where he'll be picked, or what pressure he'll be under to play immediately. Nobody knows who his coach will be, or the level of his surrounding talent. That stuff matters, more than many I-told-you-so scouts want to admit.

The knocks against Tebow -- that he has a slow release, doesn't read defenses quickly, and played in an offense that doesn't translate to the pros -- are the same things scouts once said about Steve Young and Mark Brunell, the two quarterbacks most analogous to Tebow. Those guys had great college careers and were panned before coming into the pros. They were lucky to be drafted by quarterback gurus (Bill Walsh and Mike Holmgren) who believed in them and invested in their success. Despite what many close-minded scouts will lead you to believe, a quarterback can actually, you know, improve in the pros.

The Tebow of today will not be the Tebow of 2013, if he enters the right situation. I'm not advocating Tebow as a top-10 pick -- or even a first-rounder. He's got potential, and you can't dismiss him so quickly. If Tebow is drafted by an open-minded quarterback guru like Mike Shanahan, Norv Turner, Bill Belichick or Josh McDaniels -- a patient teacher who will make Tebow his pet project -- how can you believe any scout who says he doesn't have a chance to turn out?

See the whole thing here. Very interesting perspectives.

By the way, Only Gators has a comprehensive round-up of all of the various things that the "experts" have been saying about Tebow this week. Definitely worth a look.

NFL Tebow: Going to Cardinals?

Kudos to SI.com's Don Banks, who offers up a mock draft projection for Tim Tebow that I have not seen before: No. 26 overall... to the Arizona Cardinals. Extra points for the novelty!

Senior Bowl Tebow: Draftniks Pounce

As soon as you saw last Friday's opening notes of experts coming out to bolster Tim Tebow's draft stock after weeks of expectations-dampening punishment -- a backlash, if you will -- you knew that the Senior Bowl would present the opportunity for a "backlash to the backlash."

And yesterday's performance by Tebow at the Senior Bowl allowed the draftniks to do just that: Question his fumbles during the center exchange, question his accuracy, question his mechanics.

He is a big enough story -- the most intriguing NFL Draft prospect of the 2010 Draft (and, arguably, ever) -- that I led my Sporting News column today with an argument that I think a lot of you will find familiar, but certainly in the new context of Senior Bowl Day 1 criticism:

Does it matter HOW Tim Tebow performs at the Senior Bowl this week?

Does it matter that in is first Senior Bowl practice, he bobbled the exchange with the center? Does it matter that his throws were inaccurate? Does it matter that gleeful draftniks took the moment to pounce?

No, for a couple of reasons:

*Expectations: Scouts had already battered Tebow's mechanics over the past few weeks to the point where his ability to merely walk without stumbling is a moral victory. Low expectations always help; nowhere to go but up.

*It was Day 1: Did scouts really expect Tebow to come in and seamlessly transition to a new style, with new players around him? No pre-draft rookie QB is instantly ready for the NFL. Give him a week... or three months... or three seasons.

*Tebow defies grading: Commensurate with his status as the Senior Bowl's -- and college football's -- biggest rock star, there is a strong chance that he could have mediocre workouts yet still go in the Draft's Top 10, to the Jaguars.

Undoubtedly, this drives the draftniks crazy, because it is irrational -- and because it makes their opinion about the most intriguing prospect in NFL Draft history irrelevant.

Draftniks have two choices: Bash Tebow and look like fools when he goes in the 1st round, or abandon their analysis and reflect more accurate "reality" in their mock draft. Either way, the only mockery is the draftnik-industrial complex.

It's fair to be torn about Tebow -- fans are close to 50/50 on whether he will be a "good" pro QB -- but that's what makes his NFL prospects so interesting. Unfortunately for them, draftniks aren't paid to be torn.

We will see what will happen today. But there are a couple of things we know: Tebow will perform better, if only because he will have another day of reps under his belt. It's still not clear that he even HAS to perform better. And this will drive the draft "experts" batty.

NFL Tebow: Senior Bowl Mania Begins

Tim Tebow arrived at the Senior Bowl in Mobile yesterday, making his intentions very clear:

"I'm here to be an NFL quarterback."

*And that is why Tebow is the most intriguing prospect of the 2010 NFL Draft -- or, arguably, any NFL Draft.

*It is why Tebow is the biggest storyline not just of the 2010 Senior Bowl -- but of any Senior Bowl.

*It is why Tebow's commitment to play in this game triggered a sell-out of tickets.

*It is why Tebow will command media scrutiny and scouts' attention like no other player ever.

As it turns out, playing in the Senior Bowl was -- as NFL Network's Mike Mayock put it -- a "brilliant" decision. Not only does it show Tebow's fearlessness in the face of scouts' skepticism, but it forces himself into (and at the top of) the draft conversation right now, rather than at the combine.

I dug into this a bit late last week: If Tebow has anything going for himself in this draft process, it is that scouts and draftniks already did the hard work for him: They lowered the expectations so much that if Tebow can walk without stumbling, it is an improvement on scouts' take on his footwork. If Tebow can make a completion or put any zip on the ball, it is an improvement on scouts' scathing analysis of his mechanics.

Tebow has already won the expectations game: He can only go up from here.

And he will. Because he will out-perform scouts' expectations -- he already has (see last week's early momentum in favor of Tebow). And none of the scouts want to be so outside of the mainstream that they look like fools. And so they will improve his "grade."

I read a quote from Todd McShay this weekend that Tebow will be "overdrafted" (taken too high) and end up in the mid-40s, like Pat White a year ago. I find McShay's idea that his grade or evaluation somehow matters to be cute. How will he reconcile it when Tebow is drafted in the Top 10 -- as expected by all sorts of draft "realists" who see him going to the Jaguars.

(You can already see it with the talking point "All it takes is one team." And that team, at a minimum, is the Jaguars. Everyone already knows it. No matter how much another team may like him, not another team in the Top 10 will be willing to spend a Top 10 draft pick on him like the Jaguars will. And so plenty of other teams might be willing to take him in the back half of the first round -- or any pick of the 2nd. He simply won't last that long, whether that is "over-drafting" or not. Your draft value is not what the scouts say it is, but the position you are actually drafted at. By the way, check out the new site Draft15.com, a populist effort by Jags fans to get their team to take Tebow. I don't think they have to worry. I even like the T-shirt they made for it. Or, at least, the front side. I could do without the trite "If you draft him, they will come" slogan on the back. As if drafting Tebow solves the Jaguars' attendance issues -- it doesn't, at least entirely. They may be drafting him for marketing, but -- Senior Bowl ticket sales data point aside -- I don't think he will solve that problem in the comprehensive way some think he will.)

Anyway, Tebow will be THE center of attention in Mobile this week. Practice starts today, and if you have NFL Network, you can actually watch. Otherwise, there are a ton of reporters there, eager to tell you everything that Tebow is doing -- and what the scouts are saying. Expect a ton of "better than I expected" and "already see improvements" and -- especially -- "extremely coachable" and "intangibles are off the charts." I think that seeing his leadership and attitude and willingness to learn up close will change a lot of opinions.

I think that a big misconception that some scouts are promoting is this idea that Tebow has to look and play like an NFL quarterback already. Few college QBs -- certainly at the stage of the Senior Bowl -- are NFL-ready. Why can't he simply show that he has the raw tools to be an NFL QB? Isn't it the NFL coaches' jobs -- once he's on a team -- to take those tools and turn him into an NFL QB? I just don't buy that he has to be polished TODAY.

And even though I discount the scouts and draftniks, I find it intriguing to follow the way the conventional wisdom about Tebow will shift. You saw the first signs of that late last week, and I anticipate that it will grow even stronger this week as more jump on the bandwagon.

Then, of course, we can wonder about when the "backlash to the backlash" will happen.

The kicker is the advice that Tebow said Urban Meyer gave him: "Just be you, and you'll be fine."

I'm going to assume that by "you," Meyer meant Tebow's infectious enthusiasm, drive, leadership and will to dominate (rather than his elongated throwing motion). And Meyer is right: Tebow moves up the draft with a little bit of technical improvement.

But the reason he will go in the Top 10 to the Jags... the reason he is the biggest star ever at the Senior Bowl... the reason he is the most intriguing draft prospect of all time...

...Is because Tim will be Tim.

*****

UPDATE: Tim will be Tim in at least one way -- he will wear jersey No. 15 in the Senior Bowl. (BTW, I love the intentions behind Draft15.com... um, what happens when he wears No. 5 in the NFL? No confirmation on this, but I presume that because he wore No. 5 in high school, Tebow would have taken No. 5 at Florida as a freshman if Andre Caldwell didn't already have it. Of course, the Jags have both No. 15 and No. 5 open on their roster, so Tebow can have his choice.)

NFL Tebow: Leftwich Meets Alstott?

You know I love the "Tim Tebow is like..." comps to current or former NFL players: Steve Young. Donovan McNabb. Eric Crouch. (Ugh.) Frank Wycheck. (Ugh.)

Here's a new one, passed along by the PBP's Ben Volin:

The people at WalterFootball.com compare Tebow as a hybrid between Byron Leftwich and Mike Alstott. Sounds about right.

A combo of Leftwich and Alstott. I love that. It's totally freaky -- not unlike Tebow's pro potential. I hope wherever he lands, the coaches simultaneously develop him as a QB and deploy him in weird ways that push the envelope of strategy.

In their latest mock draft, the folks at WF currently have Tebow going No. 10 to the Jaguars -- kudos to them for reflecting "reality" in their mock, rather than irrelevant grades from scouts.

Sometimes it's about best player available. Sometimes it's about filling a need. Sometimes it's about organizational fit. And sometimes -- very rarely -- it's about marketing.

(Here's a mailbag from WF, defending the pick along those lines.)

Tim Tebow was an anomaly as a college football phenomenon and he will be an anomaly as an NFL draft prospect. He may very well be an anomaly as a player, too.

To wit: When was the last time you heard of a prospect compared to a cross between an immobile QB and an oversized RB? (By the way, isn't that Daunte Culpepper in his early years?)
*****

By the way: Next week around here will be wall-to-wall NFL Draft coverage -- specifically focused on the Senior Bowl, where Tebow will be THE player to watch. In case you still don't think that the college mania translates to the pros, just watch how insane the Tebow coverage will be next week.

NFL Tebow: 49ers in the Mix?

Peter King had his eye on Tim Tebow a few weeks ago, even if his "how can you pass on this guy?" was mitigated by saying he wouldn't let him slip later... than 40th -- hardly an endorsement.

We know the conventional wisdom about who might take Tebow -- Jaguars, Redskins, Bills, Patriots. This week, King wants to add another team to the mix: The 49ers.

I think, if I had to guess right now, I'd say the best shot for Tim Tebow on draft day is San Francisco, at number 13. No proof. No solid evidence. Just this: The Niners gave a tepid endorsement to Alex Smith as their quarterback of 2010 after the season; and Mike Singletary didn't draft him; and Singletary is going to fall in love with Tebow once he meets him after the season; and Tebow is the kind of winner that Singletary has preached he wants since he took the job from Mike Nolan in mid-2008. After Singletary meets Tebow at the Scouting Combine, this is my prediction of his reaction: He'll turn to GM Scot McCloughan and say, "That's my guy. We've got to have him.''

Let me point out a few things to undermine King's theory:

*I find it very difficult to believe that the 49ers would draft (and pay) another QB in the 1st round so soon after Smith -- particularly a Meyer protege. Plus: If the team thinks Smith is its QB of the present and, presumably, future, why would they draft his eventual replacement?

*Urban Meyer has been extremely critical of the way that the NFL has mis-used Smith throughout his career -- and that means the 49ers. To the extent that Meyer will help -- or want to help -- Tebow avoid Smith's issues, he will steer him clear of San Francisco.

*Every team -- not just the 49ers -- will be blown away by Tebow during the interview process. King's logic could apply to the Colts and Saints, for crying out loud. That doesn't mean that any of them will draft him off of that interview, especially if they already have a pricey QB in place.

*The simplest of all explanations: The Jaguars pick a few slots ahead of the 49ers at No. 13, and there's no way the Jags let Tebow slip past them -- to 13th or anywhere else.

NFL Tebow: Would Pats Pass on Tebow?

Where will Tim Tebow go in the 2010 NFL Draft? Last week, we covered the first 20 spots. Four more spots have been determined: (21) Bengals, (22) Patriots, (23) Packers, (24) Eagles.

With Carson Palmer the franchise in Cincinnati, I can't imagine the Bengals taking him. Same with Rodgers in Green Bay. And the Eagles have enough drama at QB without adding Tebow to the mix. But then there's that prominent team sitting at 22: The Patriots.

Of course, the Patriots have long been linked to Tebow:

*Because of Bill Belichick's close relationship with Urban Meyer.

*Because of admiring things Belichick has said about Tebow in the past.

*Because he is the coach who is innovative (and secure) enough to utilize Tebow in creative ways (at least until Tebow is ready to assume a starting QB role, which in New England may be a few more years). Consider how Tebow might have helped on 4th-and-2 against the Colts.

Two things are working against Tebow landing with the Pats at No. 22:

(1) The overwhelming sentiment that the Jaguars will take Tebow at No. 10/11, regardless of any other factors.

(2) That as much as Belichick might like Tebow, he can't use that No. 22 pick on him, when the Patriots have such an obviously pressing need on the D-line.

Now, maybe the Patriots can address that through free agency -- but the cheapest, easiest and probably most effective way to do it is through the draft.

If Tebow slips past the Pats at 22, I could see them circling back quickly -- using some of their draft-pick stockpile in 2010 and 2011 -- to be in a position to draft him again.

But given the way the Patriots' season unfolded, their need is D, not T.

(None of this precludes what I think is a reasonable scenario: That Tebow is drafted by Jacksonville -- or whomever besides New England -- then struggles in a bad fit to the point that the team releases him, at which point he will be picked up by Belichick and unleashed on the league.)

NFL Tebow: Carroll in Seattle Shakes Up Draft Priorities?

There are a handful of NFL teams who had been widely considered to be amenable to drafting Tim Tebow in the 1st round of the 2010 NFL Draft: Jaguars, Bills, Redskins, Patriots, Seahawks.

I think we can scratch Seattle off the list. Despite having two 1st-round picks, they have a new head coach (and decision-maker), Pete Carroll, and Tebow doesn't fit Carroll's model for QBs.

Consider: Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, Matt Cassel, Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley. Technically perfect, accurate, strong-arm QBs who play in a prototype "pro-style" set.

Given that Matt Hasselbeck has a few years left in him and that there will be plenty of Carroll-style QBs available in the draft in coming years -- including Barkley in 2012 -- I don't see Carroll using one of those two 1st round picks on Tebow.

There could be reverberations: Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio has been mentioned as a possible successor to Carroll. Beyond the fact that it would be a terrible move for USC (and give Jags fans some hope), it is unlikely this would impact whether or not the team drafts Tebow -- Tebow has always been a bit of an irrational pick for the team, and a new coach won't change that.

The Bills are still looking for a coach -- this should, in theory, impact whether the team is interested.

In other recent coaching changes, I find it hard to believe that Mike Shanahan's first pick as head of the Redskins will be on Tebow in the Top 5 of the draft.

All signs continue to point to Tebow going to the Jaguars at No. 10 or No. 11.

NFL Tebow: Draft Top 20 Order Set(Can Tim Tebow Go In The Top 20?)

The order of the Top 20 of the 2010 NFL Draft is set (with a few minor coin-toss clarifications yet to be made), and we can start to consider if Tim Tebow may get drafted in the first round -- and, if so, where.

Let's start with this: If the speculation is true that the Jaguars are going to take Tebow no matter what, he could go in the Top 10, no later than No. 11.

*The Rams won't take him first. Period.

*The Lions just drafted Stafford, and the Bucs just drafted Freeman.

*I could see the Redskins being unpredictable (and marketing-savvy) enough to take Tebow -- but that won't happen at No. 4.

*KC just signed Matt Cassel.

*The Seahawks need a QB, but will take a West Coast offense-friendly QB like Bradford or Clausen.

*Even with their mess at QB, no way the Browns will take Tebow.

*Oakland at 8 is fascinating, if only because Al Davis is insane.

*The Bills' Jim Kelly endorsed the team taking Tebow, but even beyond questions about Tebow's fit as a starting QB or questions about a team as directionless as Buffalo, at No. 9, he is unlikely.

*Even if the Bears flip into No. 10, they just spent a fortune to get Jay Cutler -- although I could see a populist surge for the team to take a "Chicago-style" player like Tebow. It won't happen.

And then all eyes on Jacksonville at 11.

1. St. Louis (1-15)
2. Detroit (2-14)
3. Tampa Bay (3-13)
4. Washington (4-12)
5. Kansas City (4-12)
6. Seattle (5-11)
7. Cleveland (5-11)
8. Oakland (5-11)
9. Buffalo (6-10)
10/11. Chicago (7-9)* (Traded to DEN)
10/11. Jacksonville (7-9)*
12. Miami (7-9)
13. San Francisco (8-8)
14. Denver (8-8)(Traded to SEA)
15. New York Giants (8-8)
16/17. Carolina (8-8)* (Traded to SF)
16/17. Tennessee (8-8)*
18. Pittsburgh (9-7)
19/20. Atlanta (9-7)*
19/20. Houston (9-7)*

That analysis above was just a taste. I will dig much deeper into every team's motivation for drafting Tebow as the pre-draft craziness progresses.

The rebuilding teams with little chance of making the playoffs next year or in the future will be leery of taking Tebow -- they will almost assuredly have areas of greater need than what Tebow will solve. The near-playoff teams that are just a few tweaks away will also be looking to fill a specific need, rather than willing to embrace uncertainty and creativity with Tebow. The remaining 12 teams -- all in the playoffs this season -- have their own motivations.

UPDATE: Would you know it? The PBP's intrepid Ben Volin beat me to this. That'll teach me to write a post in the early morning, then hold it until the mid-afternoon. He and I can quibble, but we mostly agree. I think that there's less of a chance that Tebow goes before the Jags at 10/11 than Volin does -- he's much more bullish on Tebow to Buffalo than I am. But see how this is already being framed: Top 10-ish.

It's like there are the denialist draftniks who want to keep claiming that Tebow is a 2nd-rounder, then the realists who recognize that he's going 1st round, possibly Top half, possibly Top 10.

Tebow NFL Watch: Dungy Supports

"As a coach, I always like winners. Tim Tebow doesn't have the classic throwing motion, he doesn't have the accuracy, maybe, right now that some people are looking for, but I think when he gets into a pro system that really stresses throwing the ball accurately, the big thing is he makes the people around him better. And he's won. ... I think he's going to be a great player in the NFL."

-- Tony Dungy, on Tim Tebow's NFL prospects. I will completely unpack this next week, but I like the analysis from my Sporting News colleague Mike Tunison.

Let's repeat the general point -- the one that Urban Meyer makes all the time: System, system, system. It's the same with Vince Young. It's the same with Alex Smith (see last week).

And it's why, to have a successful NFL career, Tebow has to be with an innovator like Bill Belichick, who has no interest in using Tim Tebow as a full-time starting QB -- but every intention on creatively unleashing him on the league.

Tebow Quote of the Day: I-Formation Mania

"It won't be our main offense, but I think you'll see it."

-- Tim Tebow, after Saturday's practice, on the Gators using the NFL-friendly I-formation.

You know how I feel about this:

If Meyer wants to adapt his offense because he has the O-line and RBs to implement it; to give opposing DCs something to think about; and to toy around with it in advance of having a more "pro-style" QB in place next year in John Brantley, that's all good.

But no NFL scout is going to be swayed by a couple of I-formation plays in a game, where Tebow will hand off the ball 99 percent of the time. He will have plenty of time to showcase his ability to play under center during draft prep from January through April.

(Given my penchant for creating dorky short-hand for these various memes, I think I'm going to dub this "I-Formania.")

Adjusting Tebow's Throwing Motion

Have you ever heard of a top team -- the leading contender for the national title -- adapting their star quarterback's style to get him ready for the NFL? That's what Florida is doing.

I'm not averse to it, by any means. In fact, I'm all for it:

(1) I certainly root for Tebow to have a long and productive NFL career as a QB (if only to shut up the haters). And he needs to work on his delivery to do it. QB coach Scott Loeffler is the guy to teach him.

(2) Despite his phenomenal efficiency (Top 5 in D-1 for 2 years in a row), Tebow has never thrown a "good-looking" ball -- it wobbles. If Loeffler can work out the kinks in Tebow's mechanics and make him that much more of an accurate passer, that makes Tebow that much better... THIS YEAR (and not just in his NFL career).

Take note of one underrated quote from Urban Meyer from Schlabach's piece: "At the end of the day, Tim is going to be a very good NFL player. If he goes to the right team and a well-coached team, he's going to be a very productive player for a very long time."

That kind of statement just confirms my strong feeling of Tebow's draft prospects: Tebow will be drafted by Bill Belichick and the Pats. (That Meyer will take over for Belichick in a few seasons when Belichick retires, to coach his protege Tebow, is just an added conspiracy-theory bonus.)

Reprinted from DanShanoff.com, 5/20/09

Mock Draft Watch

It is hard to believe that "Will Tebow be a 1st-rounder?" was even an issue back in April in the lead-up to the 2009 NFL Draft.

All signs point to him going in the 1st round. I don't see him slipping past the Patriots, wherever the Pats are picking.

This mock has him going in the top half, to the Redskins.

Jon Gruden Loves Tebow

"Concrete cyanide": I'm not quite sure what that means, but with Gruden on "Monday Night Football," expect plenty of discussion from Gruden of how good of an NFL player Tebow will be. (I fully expect and encourage Ron Jaworski to do the right thing and pick apart Tebow's mechanics, at least if Tebow has designs on being a full-time starting QB, rather than a Wildcat specialist.)

The NFL's Tebow Experiment

Great piece by SI's Tim Layden on the NFL's "Tim Tebow Experiment." (Layden should know: He is working on a book about the history of the NFL through its greatest playbook innovations.)

Money quotes:

The NFL is fascinated with Tebow because he represents a potential evolutionary step in offensive professional football. (Emphasis here on potential because it's all a guessing game at this point.)

...

Slowly, however, rigid old rules are loosening. There is no movement afoot to install the Air Force flexbone in the NFL, but there is absolutely an interest in using option principles to complicate defensive preparation. "Somebody, someday is going to run the option in the NFL,'' says Gailey, "and when that happens, all bets are off.''

...

As I quoted Belichick in the Dec. 1 issue of Sports Illustrated, "It's going to be very interesting to see what happens when Tebow comes into this league. There aren't many players who can run and throw."

[D.S.: Feeds my "Pats-Will-Draft-Tebow" Theory.]

...

The challenge for NFL thinkers is how best to use Tebow. Can he be a full-time quarterback? (Not likely, unless he is re-made as a pocket passer). How many times can he carry the ball, making himself a threat without getting, as Belichick says, "broken in half?'' (Maybe 10 times a week? Maybe only five?). Can an NFL offense function effectively with two quarterbacks. Say, Tyler Thigpen for 40 snaps and Tim Tebow for 20? What would this do to your salary structure? Is a Super Bowl worth paying two quarterbacks NFL-starter money?

No answers here. Not yet. But know this: The questions are being asked by the people who write the checks. The Tebow Experiment is forestalled for a year, but it will absolutely take place.

Should Tebow Stay a Gator Or Go Pro?

Should Tim Tebow stay at Florida or enter the NFL Draft?

I have laid this out before: Tebow can't do much more as a college player. National title? Check (twice, including once as a starter). Heisman? Check (one win, one 3rd-place finish).

Further, given what you read about what NFL scouts say about him, I'm not sure his draft stock improves with another year of college "seasoning." His NFL flaws will remain his flaws. (UPDATE: Not necessarily true. Florida's new QB coach is Scott Loeffler, who was the QB coach at Michigan and for the Lions -- OK, don't snicker; he knows what the NFL needs in a QB.)

And then there's the money: Sure, he won't make first-round money -- this year or even perhaps in 2010 -- but the endorsement dollars should be among the highest in the NFL. And if Tebow wants to support his father's ministry with his pro earnings, why put it off a year?

That said, there is an appeal to staying:

*If, in fact, he is not seriously considered a long-term NFL starter, why not just stay in college, where he is not only prolific, but beloved -- the poster guy for the sport.

*The endorsement dollars will still be there in a year, and the ministry can probably wait for it; they have waited this long.

*Finally, for all of his accolades and accomplishments, if Tebow returned, he would have the chance to cap an unprecedented career:

Another title? Another Heisman? How about an unbeaten season, which has never happened in Florida history?

How about status as the greatest college football player of all time? How about leading a team that would compete for status as the greatest college football team of all time? (USC '05 alert)!

The idea is hardly unprecedented -- it's not even unique for Florida. When the basketball team won their first title, Joakim Noah and Al Horford would have both been Lottery picks. Corey Brewer would have been a first-round pick.

But they all came back, for the chance to accomplish something special: Back-to-back titles, and status as -- arguably -- the greatest starting five of the modern college hoops era and -- inarguably -- status as one of the greatest teams/dynasties of the modern college hoops era. All that, plus a hell of a lot of goodwill for putting the game and each other ahead of pro dollars.

I'm sure it is tempting for Tebow to stay.

In college football, he is a god (no: not a "lower-cased god," like that creepy "Zombie Jackie Robinson" in the Gatorade "What Is G?" ads). In the NFL, he is a sideshow.

Opportunities for true, Mount Zeus immortality in sport are rare. There are probably only a dozen or so athletes ALL-TIME who qualify -- none in college football. Tebow could be It.

You could argue that he is already almost there -- one of the "all-time greats" in his sport -- even if his career ended now.

There are two telling tales from recent years:

*Vince Young: VY left early, after a transcendent season and championship-game performance, and that hasn't dimmed his place in college football's Pantheon any.

(More similarities: In addition to reaping tons of endorsement dollars that Tebow is likely to similarly create -- more, actually -- VY has run into problems in the NFL on the field, similar to what Tebow might face.)

*Matt Leinart: Leinart stayed all 4 years -- for much of the same reasons Tebow would stay: He loved college life. His USC team had the potential to be one of the best -- if not THE best -- ever. Win another Heisman. And it all ultimately collapsed around him, unfulfilled. I would argue that Leinart's star as a college football super-great dimmed, perhaps just slightly, by staying.

It is a complex decision.

I think that Tebow has nothing left to prove in college -- success came so early, so comprehensively and so exhaustively that his senior year seems superfluous.

And yet I think Tebow IS college football; how could he be one of "those" players who abandons it early? Particularly -- especially -- if there is no great demand for him in the NFL.

I will be torn either way he decides. I will be thrilled if he comes back -- it is almost overkill. (Almost.) I will support him as an all-time college football great if he leaves.

I can only imagine how difficult it is for him. His particularly unique disposition -- and I would say his disposition, of anything, is what puts him over the top as an all-time great -- is uniquely suited for a decision like this. He possesses an uncanny sense of clarity.

And yet in analyzing it here, there are simply no easy or obvious answers.

My prediction: I think he will come back to Florida for his senior year. And it will be mayhem.

(Reprinted from DanShanoff.com, 01/09/09)

Tebow: The Next Donovan McNabb?

Tim Tebow's closest college football -- and perhaps NFL -- analogue is... Donovan McNabb. So says Allen Barra of the Village Voice, with stats to back it up.

Tebow's NFL Potential

Tim Tebow's NFL potential?

Mel Kiper isn't a fan (at least as a QB.)

Matt Hinton asks "Why not?"

MJD says "That's why."

As for me, I think, at worst, he can have an impact with a coach who is willing to go crazy with the Wildcat: Let your "game manager" QB get you to the 15; let Tebow do the rest. At the very least, how about using him innovatively; he doesn't have to take a lot of snaps to have a big impact (see Florida's 2006 national-title season).

At best, I think Tebow can be an NFL starter; don't underestimate the ability of NFL coaches to turn unpolished passers with big size and mobility into NFL starters. As always, it will totally depend on the context he is drafted into -- coach, team around him, etc.

I stand by my prediction that Bill Belichick will draft Tebow, then unleash him. (I wouldn't be surprised if Belichick made it clear through back-channels -- perhaps Beli BFF Urban Meyer -- that the Pats won't let Tebow slide past them in the 1st round.)

BTW: I find Kiper's gold standard of "pure NFL pocket passer" as Matt Stafford to be laughable. Two words: Rex Grossman. I spent all weekend in Atlanta and Stafford came up a lot. Someone tell me how Stafford isn't the next Grossman -- a strong-armed dummy.

Instead of calling Tebow "the next Eric Crouch" (or "next Frank Wycheck" -- where the "W" stands for "WTF?!"), why not call him the next Donovan McNabb?

-- D.S.

UPDATE: WSJ's Allen Barra on Tebow's bonafides -- if not as an NFL player than as arguably the greatest college football player of all time. BTW, for the commenter who said Tebow didn't stack up to Donovan McNabb statistically, you were right: Tebow is actually superior in all the stats you cited -- yards per attempt, passer rating... let's not even count TDs, TD/INT ratio, yards-per-carry, rushing TDs, etc. As good as McNabb was in college, Tebow is -- statistically -- much better.

Tebow-Patriots NFL Draft Theory

Among the many interlocking pieces to my conspiracy theory that Tim Tebow will be drafted by Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots (Meyer-Belichick love, Kraft-Meyer love, my loathing of Boston sports and the reality that my favorite player going to Boston would be end-all-be-all irony in my lifetime of fandom), there is this original source material from Bill Belichick himself that inspired the whole theory, from an offhand mention in a blog post on November 21, 2007.