NFL Tebow: Would Pats Pass on Tebow?

Where will Tim Tebow go in the 2010 NFL Draft? Last week, we covered the first 20 spots. Four more spots have been determined: (21) Bengals, (22) Patriots, (23) Packers, (24) Eagles.

With Carson Palmer the franchise in Cincinnati, I can't imagine the Bengals taking him. Same with Rodgers in Green Bay. And the Eagles have enough drama at QB without adding Tebow to the mix. But then there's that prominent team sitting at 22: The Patriots.

Of course, the Patriots have long been linked to Tebow:

*Because of Bill Belichick's close relationship with Urban Meyer.

*Because of admiring things Belichick has said about Tebow in the past.

*Because he is the coach who is innovative (and secure) enough to utilize Tebow in creative ways (at least until Tebow is ready to assume a starting QB role, which in New England may be a few more years). Consider how Tebow might have helped on 4th-and-2 against the Colts.

Two things are working against Tebow landing with the Pats at No. 22:

(1) The overwhelming sentiment that the Jaguars will take Tebow at No. 10/11, regardless of any other factors.

(2) That as much as Belichick might like Tebow, he can't use that No. 22 pick on him, when the Patriots have such an obviously pressing need on the D-line.

Now, maybe the Patriots can address that through free agency -- but the cheapest, easiest and probably most effective way to do it is through the draft.

If Tebow slips past the Pats at 22, I could see them circling back quickly -- using some of their draft-pick stockpile in 2010 and 2011 -- to be in a position to draft him again.

But given the way the Patriots' season unfolded, their need is D, not T.

(None of this precludes what I think is a reasonable scenario: That Tebow is drafted by Jacksonville -- or whomever besides New England -- then struggles in a bad fit to the point that the team releases him, at which point he will be picked up by Belichick and unleashed on the league.)

Would Urban Leave Florida After 2009?

UPDATE (7/13): "I'm not going to Notre Dame. Ever." -- Urban Meyer (h/t: Pat Dooley)

Original Post (7/7):

Would Urban Meyer leave Florida after the 2009 season? That's what Paul Finebaum is spouting -- and rival coaches are using it on the recruiting trail (don't buy it, Matt Elam!)

Circumstantially, it is not entirely a wack-job theory:

*Urban should be coming off his 2nd straight national title, his 3rd in 4 years. Anything left to prove? Hardly.

(Alternative: With the ridiculous recruiting classes the past few years, the team should only get better -- he came to Florida to win championships. His work hasn't even begun to return substantial dividends yet: The whole "2 titles in 3 years" thing is a bonus.)

*His favorite player of all time -- Tim Tebow -- will be leaving the program for the NFL.

(Alternative: And so he would want to go to, say, Notre Dame and coach... a QB he didn't recruit? John Brantley is no Tim Tebow -- frankly, he's a better pure passer and will bring an interesting intellectual challenge for Meyer, Adazzio and Co. to creating an offense around him.)

*The Notre Dame job -- Meyer's so-called "dream job" -- will likely be open next year, after Charlie Weis underachieves...yet again.

(Alternative: Meyer will be coaching well into January. Notre Dame's job may be open as early as mid-November. Meyer wouldn't leave early, and Notre Dame may not be interested in waiting 6 weeks for a new coach -- even Meyer. And no coach would want to enter a situation that late, either.)

So let's get real: Meyer isn't leaving Florida after the 2009 season. He isn't going to Notre Dame after the 2009 season -- perhaps not for a decade after that, either.

If I was a rival coach trying to push a theory, I would go with this:

It is well-established that Urban Meyer loves Bill Belichick. They are, within the coaching fraternity, best friends. Meyer visits the Pats; Belichick visits Gainesville. Meyer models Florida after the way Belichick runs the Patriots.

Patriots owner Bob Kraft loves Urban Meyer, too. Bill Belichick has long been on the record as admiring Tim Tebow, both as a competitor and as a player around whom innovative schemes can be built. Just the kind of challenge Belichick likes.

You see where I'm going here.

The Patriots will draft Tim Tebow, putting him in the enviable position of learning from Tom Brady, while taking a handful of "Wildcat"-style snaps in goal-line and short-yardage situations. At some point, Belichick will retire. At that point, Kraft and Belichick will call Urban Meyer and give him the chance to coach for the best NFL organization, arguably the best NFL owner and reunited with his favorite player.

I'm not saying Meyer will leave Florida to take it. But if he was ever going to take an NFL job, he would take it with the team he admires more than any in the game. It represents a much more compelling opportunity than simply winning more college titles at another university.

So will Meyer leave Florida in 2009 with his star protege? No.

Will he leave eventually? Yes. I give him as many years as it is until Bill Belichick retires from the Patriots.

Then Meyer heads to the NFL, secure in his college football legacy after a half-dozen national titles.

(If it doesn't work out in the NFL -- and maybe it won't -- Meyer would be able to pick his college opportunity: Yes, including Notre Dame. But between his next 5-6 years at Florida and his 3-4 years in the NFL before he decides he doesn't like it, that puts him in South Bend in 2020.)

Tebow-Patriots NFL Draft Theory

Among the many interlocking pieces to my conspiracy theory that Tim Tebow will be drafted by Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots (Meyer-Belichick love, Kraft-Meyer love, my loathing of Boston sports and the reality that my favorite player going to Boston would be end-all-be-all irony in my lifetime of fandom), there is this original source material from Bill Belichick himself that inspired the whole theory, from an offhand mention in a blog post on November 21, 2007.