McCoy Not Tebow The Heisman Favorite

Colt McCoy, not Tim Tebow, is the favorite to win the 2009 Heisman, according to Chris Huston, who runs the awesome HeismanPundit.com, which -- for my money -- is the leading indicator of Heisman tracking in the country.

It feels like the strongest argument for McCoy is not affirmative, but rather defensive: "Well, he is the only one of the Big Three -- Tebow, Bradford, McCoy -- NOT to have won it."

It's the old "He's due" rationale.

I disagree with voters who use the "Lifetime Achievement" philosophy to pick their Heisman winner, but I also recognize that is a huge factor with many voters. (I also recognize that Tebow -- as "GOAT"-eligible -- might benefit from this, too.)

Meanwhile, let's remember the most notable detail of the 2008 vote: Tebow earned more 1st-place votes than any other player, including Bradford.

In regional breakdowns, it felt like voters in the Midwest and Southwest intentionally left Tebow off their ballots, in order to increase the chances of their guys, Bradford and/or McCoy.

McCoy and Bradford will once again split votes in those regions -- and I suspect that many voters will continue to either shunt Tebow into 3rd or leave him off completely, if they can.

Here is what it comes down to: If Tebow has Florida unbeaten after the SEC title game, wire-to-wire No. 1 heading into the Heisman voting deadline and BCS title-game pairing, he will win the award. If Florida stumbles, Tebow's Heisman chances are gone -- but at that point, I suspect that neither he nor Florida fans will care much about the Heisman.

McCoy must beat Bradford head-to-head, while leading Texas to an unbeaten season and Big 12 championship. At that point, I think most voters will, at the very least, have McCoy over Bradford.

The only debate then is between McCoy and Tebow.

Absolutely a dynamic that will be must-track throughout the season.

Tebow 2/1 Favorite To Win Heisman

Great post by the PB Post's Ben Volin, breaking down the Florida dominance not just among preseason college football magazine editors (consensus No. 1 across Steele, Sporting News, Athlon and Lindy's... have to imagine SI will go contrarian, just for its own sake) but with Las Vegas oddsmakers, too. Great detail here: Tebow is the 2/1 favorite to win the Heisman, with a slight edge over Bradford and McCoy (2.75/1).

Tebow Will NOT Win Heisman in 2008

As promised, the shocking opinion, straight from my Sporting News column this morning:

I do NOT pick Tim Tebow to win the Heisman this season.

In the column, I lay out the reasons (briefly: Tebow Fatigue, Stat Drop-Off, Increased Comp). All together, I just don't see it happening.

HeismanPundit.com (now in partnership with the Orlando Sentinel, in a great move for both) did its preseason straw poll of influential voters -- Tebow won by a slim margin.

Again, I disagree. (I'm sure if we went back, Matt Leinart won the preseason straw poll the season after he won the Heisman. It's even more meaningless than a preseason Top 25.)

That's not to say that I don't think Tebow isn't the best player in college football. Absolutely, I do. But there's a huge difference between that and winning the Heisman.

So, who WILL win the Heisman? I think it will be Ohio State RB Chris "Beanie" Wells. He will be a candidate for 2,000 yards, two dozen TDs and the anchor of an OSU team that will likely end up in the national title game.

(Hmm: What's more shocking -- that I pick against Tebow to win the Heisman in '08? Or that I pick an Ohio State player to win the award?)

The other players I think will end up as finalists in New York will also see their teams spend time up near the top of the polls: Tebow; Chase Daniel, Pat White, Knowshon Moreno -- in that order of finish.

(If Percy Harvin stays healthy, I think he could be Reggie Bush to Tebow's Matt Leinart. But that's a huge "if.")

Regardless, I think Tebow won't repeat. It's fun to consider. He is a one-of-a-kind player -- probably my favorite college football player of all time (not that THAT is a consideration for Heisman-worthiness). He will be in the Heisman mix all season long -- if he can win the Heisman with the Gators going 9-3 in the regular season, what will happen if they go 11-1 or 12-0?

If Tebow didn't win last year, he would be the heavy favorite this year. But he DID win last year -- and that's a big reason why he won't win this year.

"Beanie for Heisman" -- that's a pretty catchy marketing slogan.

The Final Inspiration For This Blog

This pretty much sums up the hysteria.