Tebow Senior Bowl: Let's Move On...

OK, so while Senior Bowl week was jam-packed with storylines and excitement, the game...? Um, not so much. In fact, it might qualify as Tim Tebow's worst game ever.

Obviously, part of it was the hodge-podge context, but it was what it was. The McShays of the world will gleefully point to it; Tebow-backers will (rightfully) mitigate it.

The point of Tebow participating in the Senior Bowl wasn't the Senior Bowl itself -- as I'm sure the sell-out crowd figured out pretty quickly. The point certainly wasn't to impress NFL scouts.

The point was to get a week of NFL coaching and to show that Tebow is willing to do whatever it takes to get better. That has nothing to do with scouts' analysis and nothing to do with the game itself.

What next from here? A few weeks of under-the-radar training in Tennessee or back in Florida, gearing up for the next stage of this: The NFL Combine in late February.

Of course, in the meantime, it's not exactly like Tebow will be off the radar. There is that little Super Bowl commercial that will keep Tebow very much in the conversation.

James 1:2-4: Tebow Senior Bowl Eye-Black

In perhaps the last game Tim Tebow will be able to wear Bible verses on his eye-black, he chose James 1:2-4. It's a pretty relevant message, given the criticism this week:

Consider it pure joy, my brothers, whenever you face trials of many kinds, because you know that the testing of your faith develops perseverance. Perseverance must finish its work so that you may be mature and complete, not lacking anything.

Just in case you ever wondered whether Tebow was willing to pick Biblical passages with very secular double-meanings.

Tebow Senior Bowl Gameday Reads

With a couple of hours until the kickoff of the Senior Bowl -- either Tim Tebow's last-last-last game as a collegian or his first-first-first game as a pro (or something in-between) -- here are a couple of things that have been published over the last 24 hours that are worth a read:

*Time for Tebow to shine (Robbie Andreu, G'ville Sun)

Terrific, personal insight from Tebow's hometown beat writer.

*Drew Brees' NFL success should help Tebow's draft stock (Stewart Mandel, SI.com)

An analyst who actually builds a case for Tebow's success as a QB, rather than a knee-jerk summary judgment that he can't be.

*Tebow's NFL future won't take away from what he's done -- or will be (Dennis Dodd, CBSSports.com)

A little too self-indulgent (pot, meet kettle!), but the point is well-taken.

*Welcome to the real world, where sharks await (Pat Dooley, G'ville Sun)

Did people really think the Tebow Super Bowl ad would go unnoticed?

*The origin of Tebow's long wind-up (Jeremy Fowler, Orlando Sentinel)

Great back-story on Tebow's mechanics -- the crux of the criticism against his NFL potential.

*Some NFL scouts have given up on Tebow. Does that makes sense? (Matt Hinton, Yahoo)

Good analysis of both sides of the debate over Tebow's NFL potential as a full-time QB.

*Tim Tebow, the Movie (Ben Volin, Palm Beach Post)

I'll see it.

Those are about Tebow in the Senior Bowl and/or his NFL stock after this week. (Did I miss any good ones in the last 24 hours? Shoot me an email at the address on the upper-right.)

Then there are the many, MANY things that have been published about the Super Bowl ad. I'm going to have a larger round-up of them next week -- if you thought the attention given to it last week was crazy, just wait until we get closer to the game.

In the meantime, if you really need your fix of Tebow Super Bowl ad opinions, try this piece from Jason Fagone from Slate: The real meaning of Tim Tebow's Super Bowl ad. It definitely has a point of view, but it's not far off from the end of my post from the other day, talking about the SB ad as the ultimate extension of the "John 3:16" revelation the Tebows had in the 2008 national title game about Tebow's potential for influence as a college football superstar.

Senior Bowl Tebow: Todd McShay D+

Todd McShay -- who seems intent on making his could-not-be-worse evaluation of Tim Tebow his career legacy -- weighs in with a final grade for Tebow from Senior Bowl week: D+

"Overall, Senior Bowl week could not have gone worse from an on-the-field standpoint."

Two points in reaction:

(1) Couldn't it have gone worse if Tebow didn't bother to show up at all? Guarantee his learning curve improved from the five days of NFL coaching. And his pre-draft hype got even bigger (which must drive McShay batty).

(2) If it "could not have gone worse," why did McShay give him a "D+" and not a "D" or "D-" or "F." For someone so sure of himself, that feels like a hedge.

It will be most interesting the day that McShay has to reconcile his grade for Tebow with where Tebow will actually go in the draft -- which is all fans really care about: Mock drafts.

McShay thinks that Tebow is a 3rd-round talent (which, itself, is odd given how poorly McShay thinks of him -- 3rd round still makes him a Top 100 prospect), but will he slot him in the 3rd-round in his mock draft? If so, he will be so wrong as to discredit him as a draft expert. Mock drafts aren't about how draftniks grade the prospects, but their best guess where those prospects will be drafted. Two totally different things.

It's funny: I have heard McShay provide two different things -- he says he gives Tebow a "3rd-round grade," yet he also says he could be "over-drafted" as high as a Pat White-ish 44th, in the middle of the 2nd round. McShay seems to completely ignore the very real possibility the Jaguars will pull off among the biggest reaches in NFL Draft history and take Tebow 10th.

In the end, it doesn't matter how McShay grades Tebow. It matters where McShay predicts Tebow will be drafted -- and if all signs point to the Jaguars taking him in the 1st round with the 10th overall pick, will McShay reflect that in his mock or insist on his own version of reality?

And even where McShay predicts Tebow will be drafted is pretty irrelevant -- McShay could fall on his sword and get it totally wrong by putting Tebow where McShay believes he should be drafted... or McShay could cynically ignore his own analysis and put Tebow where he will be drafted.

The irony is: It's a no-win for McShay.

All that matters is where Tebow is actually drafted: The right fit, a good coaching staff, a willingness to invest in developing him while simultaneously unleashing him in unorthodox ways.

And one thing is an absolute, lock-solid, make-me-a-draftnik certainty: The round and pick Tim Tebow is ultimately drafted in won't be nearly as bad of a slot as McShay thinks it should be.

(Update: I think I figured out the appropriate analogy. Todd McShay is to Tim Tebow as Frank Grimes was to Homer Simpson on that classic episode where Homer unwittingly developed a nemesis in Grimes, who drove himself insane -- and worse -- trying to figure out why Homer was so successful despite Grimes' emphatic belief that Homer shouldn't be.)

NFL Tebow: The Case For Success

ESPN.com's terrific Bruce Feldman tackled the Tebow debate in his column today (Insider subscription needed), and he brought in an NFL scout to dis, then ESPN colleague Seth Wickersham to make the point I've been trying to make (Seth does it more eloquently): The context of where Tebow lands matters... a lot. Here's Wickersham:

Fact is, nobody knows how Tebow will do in the pros.

There are too many unknown variables. Nobody knows where he'll be picked, or what pressure he'll be under to play immediately. Nobody knows who his coach will be, or the level of his surrounding talent. That stuff matters, more than many I-told-you-so scouts want to admit.

The knocks against Tebow -- that he has a slow release, doesn't read defenses quickly, and played in an offense that doesn't translate to the pros -- are the same things scouts once said about Steve Young and Mark Brunell, the two quarterbacks most analogous to Tebow. Those guys had great college careers and were panned before coming into the pros. They were lucky to be drafted by quarterback gurus (Bill Walsh and Mike Holmgren) who believed in them and invested in their success. Despite what many close-minded scouts will lead you to believe, a quarterback can actually, you know, improve in the pros.

The Tebow of today will not be the Tebow of 2013, if he enters the right situation. I'm not advocating Tebow as a top-10 pick -- or even a first-rounder. He's got potential, and you can't dismiss him so quickly. If Tebow is drafted by an open-minded quarterback guru like Mike Shanahan, Norv Turner, Bill Belichick or Josh McDaniels -- a patient teacher who will make Tebow his pet project -- how can you believe any scout who says he doesn't have a chance to turn out?

See the whole thing here. Very interesting perspectives.

By the way, Only Gators has a comprehensive round-up of all of the various things that the "experts" have been saying about Tebow this week. Definitely worth a look.

NFL Tebow: Going to Cardinals?

Kudos to SI.com's Don Banks, who offers up a mock draft projection for Tim Tebow that I have not seen before: No. 26 overall... to the Arizona Cardinals. Extra points for the novelty!

Tim Tebow vs. Todd McShay

I spend a lot of time pointing out Todd McShay as the standard-bearer of draftniks who think Tim Tebow has no ability to play QB in the NFL. This is for two reasons: (1) As ESPN's leading draftnik (sorry, Mel Kiper), he has the most dominant platform of anyone in the world related to the NFL Draft. (2) McShay continuously is willing to promote his opinion. Like so:

"He can’t play quarterback in the NFL, I’m convinced of it."

But, Todd: Tell us how you really feel. Can't put it any more clearly than that. As I've said before: It must drive McShay bonkers to get asked about Tebow's potential as an NFL QB when McShay is so clearly convinced Tebow has no potential as an NFL QB.

Because if a team is willing to take Tebow in the 1st round -- or even the 2nd round -- as a QB, that says less about the team doing the drafting than it does about about McShay's authority on the issue. And without authority, draftniks have... well, not much.

It IS a stretch to think that someone whose skills are so devalued by scouts -- at the game's most important position, no less -- could go in the 1st round of the NFL Draft... and, in my opinion, the Top 10. (You might say I'm convinced of it.)

But that's the weird Tebow exceptionalism at work. He is unlike any prospect -- QB or otherwise -- that has ever come through the NFL Draft, certainly at QB.

It's the same thing that has scouts -- virtually every one (even the anonymous ones) except McShay -- caveating all of their bearish analysis with "But I wouldn't bet against him."

Scouts and draftniks simply don't have the track record of accurately projecting NFL QBs to really make end-all-be-all pronouncements (particularly when you factor in how much context has to do with success).

I'm not saying that Tebow will be a starting QB in the NFL for 10 years -- few QBs are, whether they are taken at the top of the 1st round or at the end of the entire draft. Prospects with phenomenal NFL-ready tools have washed out; prospects with NFL-ready tools have slipped to the late rounds.

Prospects with some tools have been coached up (Matt Cassel), and some have been in terrible coaching situations and never reached their potential.

But I go back to that quote from Gene Smith from this morning: Tebow is willing to work and study as hard as any QB ever to get better. Provided he has the right coaching (and that's no guarantee), you can't say he won't have given himself the best shot possible.

But I'm willing to give him a few years to develop -- in the meantime, I hope that the team that drafts him is willing to deploy him innovatively in the short term. He can make a contribution immediately, while maintaining his potential to develop into an NFL quarterback.

I'm convinced of it.

Tebow Super Bowl Ad: On Palin, Influence

When I first brought up Tim Tebow's Super Bowl ad with Focus on the Family a month ago, I probably should have staked out that I thought it would become a big deal.

Actually, I thought it would get rejected by CBS as an "advocacy ad" -- in line with Super Bowl precedent -- and that would be that. The ad would get some life on YouTube and that's it.

But I was entirely wrong: CBS accepted the ad, presumably because they wanted the money, but also presumably because Focus on the Family presented them with a muted message. (Anything more provocative would surely have been rejected.)

And since the news of the accepted ad came out, it has become a lot bigger than my original claims that there's really "no controversy" there. Again: I was wrong.

The ad's subject -- implicitly or explicitly, depending on who you ask -- is abortion. And abortion is the most heated issue of our time. It has triggered a lot of heated discussion.

This week, the issue -- tackled up til now by some sports columnists -- has crossed over from sports into mainstream media: Joy Behar talked about it on The View. And, yesterday, Sarah Palin gave the ad a huge profile by talking about it on her much-watched Facebook page, which undercuts the argument from CBS that the ad's topic is apolitical. Regardless, as you will see from my conclusion at the end of this post, that kind of profile you get when everyone (including Sarah Palin) talks about your issues is at the heart of the decision to do the ad.

And so let's revisit a couple of the key issues:

*Participating in the ad should shock no one who knows or has followed Tebow. It is entirely consistent with his values and actions, as Tebow himself re-affirmed yesterday.

*To the extent that an ad essentially about the abortion debate can be non-controversial, the content of the ad will be as toned-down as it can possibly get. Some apparently have this presumption that the ad will show Tim and Pam Tebow marching with posters of baby fetuses. Without having seen the script, I guarantee you that it will be softly spoken (and entirely sincere) treacle, because CBS couldn't approved it any other way.

*Some see the ad as a gateway for some of Focus on the Family's "non-muted" viewpoints. And by appearing on behalf of Focus on the Family, Tim Tebow endorses those viewpoints. Those people obviously haven't followed Tebow throughout his career -- he might not constantly talk about it, but he is doing the ad because he supports FoF's planks. Many Tebow fans who don't agree with or support Focus on the Family's positions on issues came to terms with that a long time ago. People who don't know Tebow (or know him beyond a cariacature) will likely have a less nuanced view, whichever side they support.

*This will not hurt Tim Tebow's endorsement potential in more secular sectors, like sports drinks or video games or sports equipment. There is a huge market of fans who will like Tebow for his off-field values; there is a huge market of fans who like Tebow despite his off-field activity; and there is a huge market of fans who don't care and will buy Gatorade or Nike sneakers or video games featuring Tebow regardless.

*Mostly, there seems to be an overwhelming group in the middle that doesn't care about Tebow's affiliation with Focus on the Family, one way or the other. What they care about is the politicization of an apolitical national event like the Super Bowl -- no matter how soft-sold the ad might be. They don't want their politics and their sports to mix. Some will love seeing the ad. Some will hate seeing the ad. But how about most people?

Most will watch it, take 5 seconds to have an opinion about how it made them feel -- I'm predicting mostly "what was the fuss all about?" -- and then they will either (a) hush the other people in the living room because the next commercial is on, (b) forget about the ad because the game is back on, or (c) hustle out to go to the bathroom or to the snacks table.

CBS has the right to run any ad they want. People have the right to feel how they want about it and about Tebow himself.

And Tebow has the right to make any ad he wants. I'm not even sure he and his marketing team or family made any sort of economic calculus about how this ad might hurt (or help) his larger marketing appeal. In fact, I doubt they even considered it.

*****

I go back to something we heard over and over when Tebow made his decision to come back to Florida for his senior year. It wasn't about winning a championship (although that was part of it). It wasn't about getting better-prepared for the NFL (although that was part of it).

No: The anecdote you heard over and over was about how blown away Tebow and his family were by the Google dominance of "John 3:16" when Tebow wore it on his eyeblack in the 2008 national title game. The revelation -- so to speak -- was that Tebow, coming back as the biggest rock star in college football history, had a massive platform to influence people... far more massive than he would have as an early-entry NFL rookie QB.

The Focus on the Family spot is not an ad during "How I Met Your Mother." This is an ad during the Super Bowl -- the most-watched TV show of the year, and regularly among the most-watched TV shows of all time.

This is -- by many, many multiples -- the biggest single platform Tebow has ever had to share his values and influence people.

Tebow: "It’s a good time and place. There are a lot of people watching. It’s a great opportunity to show something very happy and a special story and my mom fighting for me. There are a lot of great things in that."

(Tebow also seemed generally -- and genuinely -- surprised at the controversy. Again, this shouldn't surprise anyone, and it is part of what makes Tebow simultaneously someone of tremendous clarity -- even simplicity -- yet complexity.)

Given what we know about how important that influence is to Tebow and his family -- and Focus on the Family's recognition that between CBS's desperation for Super Bowl ad money and the softly sold story of the Tebows that would pass corporate muster, they could get their own brand on the biggest stage possible -- Tebow's participation in this ad should come as no surprise.

NFL Tebow: Wildcat or a "Real" QB?

Money passage from Robbie Andreu's comprehensive analysis of the state of Tim Tebow's draft prospects:

Jacksonville Jaguars general manager Gene Smith said Tebow is no different than any other quarterback making the transition from college to the NFL. He needs to be developed, and that probably includes work on his mechanics and other aspects of playing the position.

Smith said Tebow's work ethic, intangibles and passion for the game will play a significant role in his development.

"You talk about Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, coming out of college they were so passionate about competing at the very highest level," Smith said. "No one worked harder than those two. It's not like they had just God-given ability and just stepped out on the field and performed. The honed their skills.

"That's one thing Tim has. He has the mindset of Peyton Manning and Drew Brees from a preparation standpoint. He'll put in the time. How good he becomes, I don't know. I don't have a crystal ball. I do know he's a tremendous competitor who has played quarterback in a great program and he's won national championships. He's certainly showed the ability to lead, and that's the No. 1 thing you have to have in a quarterback."

It's not (just) about Gene Smith laying groundwork for taking Tebow with the 10th overall pick on behalf of the Jaguars. Tons of good stuff in here.

Break From Tebow Super Bowl Ad Frenzy

Let's just take a second from the heat over the Super Bowl ad:

(Photo by Chip English, AP)

Brand Tebow: Too "Goody" For Consumers?

Whether you agree or not, Gawker's Hamilton Nolan offers up a provocative perspective on Tim Tebow's marketability, precisely because he's too good.

The point is, Timmy, that just because people say they admire your missionary work and your Bible-verse quotes and your constant invocation of Jesus' name doesn't mean they actually do. Your appeal outside the South is already woefully limited. Add in the fact that you're happily wading into the public debate on the more acceptably debatable portions of Christian doctrine, and you're just giving everyone a good excuse to write you off. I admire your guileless good will, Tim Tebow. But nobody likes a goody-goody. This, after all, is America.

Read the whole thing here.

I would go back to my usual "exceptionalism" argument: We simply haven't seen an athlete like this before, so I understand why it's hard to see an analogue in sports marketing history.

Do fans want their heroes to be epically flawed (or not so "goody-goody?") It's possible, although isn't that more from circumstance of their available options than by choice?

I continue to think that Tebow will rack up endorsement deals: Sports drinks, shoes, video games -- and, yes, products geared for evangelical consumers.

Ultimately, there will have to be some sort of validation on the field. I remain convinced that can happen (not necessarily as a full-time QB to start), although I recognize I'm in the minority.

But even though there are plenty of haters, you have to look no further than the stands in Mobile -- and the reporters' notebooks, too -- to recognize his popularity and marketability.

HamNo is right about one thing: Tebow has graduated from the provincial world of college football media to the pros, including Gawker. The Super Bowl ad has only multiplied that.

Senior Bowl Tebow: Officially a Mania

Draftniks might still be battling to see who can most scrutinize Tebow's mechanics, but one thing is clear: Tebow's rock-star status has translated to the pros. (To say the least.)

Commensurate with his position as the biggest star in college football history, he is the biggest star at the Senior Bowl -- this year's version or any other. The fans are there for him.

As Fowler notes, Tebow has a superstar's posse in Mobile, too, including a documentarian -- the son of Florida's biggest booster (and Bob Tebow's college roommate).

It is more obvious now than ever that he will enter the NFL as one of its biggest rock stars, regardless of where he is drafted or, frankly, how he is used.

And that doesn't even account for the frenzy over Tebow's Super Bowl ad, which is sizing up as the biggest non-game story of the Big Game. That takes Tebow to an even bigger level.

If the NFL is the country's biggest sport and the Draft is the biggest NFL event between the Super Bowl and 2010 Kickoff Weekend, Tebow will remain among sports' biggest stories.

Senior Bowl Tebow: Progress, Day 3, SB Ad

Pretty interesting day yesterday for Tim Tebow, leading into today's practice at the Senior Bowl:

*On the field, he had a better day on Tuesday than Monday -- unsurprising, because this process is going to be all about the learning curve. And from all accounts, Tebow keeps moving up:

On Tuesday, he did not have issues taking snaps and set up well in his drop. When he rolled out to his left or right, he set himself before throwing and was typically on target. However, it took him too long to set and throw on the move. It was obvious he worked on shortening his delivery, but he fell back into old habits as the practice went on, winding up and allowing cornerbacks to jump out routes.

Tebow displayed nice touch on deep balls and the zip down the seam that he has always had. When he held onto the ball too long or faced pressure, however, Tebow made bad decisions, throwing two near-interceptions that bounced off the chest of South Carolina linebacker Eric Norwood and the hands of Miami middle linebacker Darryl Sharpton.

*Is Tebow a fit for the Wildcat? Jeremy Fowler has a reported analysis, but it begs the question whether a team (besides Jacksonville) would use a 1st-round pick on a part-time QB (although the presumption is that they would simultaneously try to develop him into a starter). Also, they will have to out-pick the Jaguars for him, meaning it would have to be a team in the Top 9 (like the Bills) or trade up (unlikely, given the cost of trading up into the Top 10).

*There was the whole "View" thing, where Joy Behar decided to have a lamentably unnuanced opinion about Tebow doing the Focus on the Family ad. Dr. Saturday has a good take.

*In fact, the ad IS becoming a bigger issue, between yesterday's news that women's groups are going to protest it to today's column from USA Today's sports media reporter FINALLY writing about it. (The top CBS sports exec reflected the ad's divisiveness by totally ducking it when speaking to the media.)

*Chris Mortenson had this to tweet: "If anyone thinks Tebow is going to compromise his beliefs for marketers, they're badly mistaken." (Nothing that would surprise anyone who has followed Tebow.)

*Jack Del Rio weighed in. (Covered here.)

*Check out this interview Tebow did with the NFL Network group. It was a given that he would be able to ace interviews with teams and the media -- this is a pretty good representative sample.

Senior Bowl Tebow: Del Rio a Fan?

"I thought the uniform fit well. The helmet was outstanding."

That's Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio, making his first appearance at the Senior Bowl -- and getting asked, obviously, about Tim Tebow.

I'm not sure how to read Del Rio on this. On the one hand, he is a friend of Urban Meyer's -- which will make Meyer feel more comfortable about the Jaguars drafting Tebow.

On the other hand, you get the sense that it won't be Del Rio's decision -- in the least -- about whether the team will draft Tebow. If they do, it will come down from owner Wayne Weaver.

(Why? Because, based on skills and immediate fit, there is little reason for the Jaguars to use the No. 10 or No. 11 overall pick of the draft on Tebow. But, as I've said: That hardly matters.)

And so Del Rio has to put on a happy face -- even a pleasantly coy face -- about Tebow, whether he likes it or not.

But it's not like everyone doesn't know Jacksonville's interest. It's not like a team is going to vault ahead of the Jaguars to steal him from them.

And so for every stone-jawed compliment Del Rio pays Tebow, you wonder whether he really means it.

Senior Bowl Tebow: Sick, But Better

The big news from Day 2 of the Senior Bowl workouts was that Tim Tebow is battling strep throat and had a 103-degree fever last night. Still went out there today and had a good -- not great -- day: Hit a couple long passes, avoided a couple of near-INTs and bobbled one snap. Other than that, the discussion mainly centered on him being talked about on The View.

NFL Tebow: Peter King's Draft Pool

A little fun until the afternoon practice starts...

As part of his MMQB column yesterday, Peter King mentioned a Tebow draft pool with some writers he was having dinner with. Here's how it went -- my commentary in italics.

Mike Silver, Yahoo! Sports: Jacksonville
The smartest, safest bet. Where I'd put my money.

Sam Farmer, L.A. Times: St. Louis
Presumably not with the No. 1 overall pick. Top of the 2nd? Won't last that long.

Albert Breer, Boston Globe: Buffalo
At No. 9, just ahead of the Jags? Maybe. But can Tebow play in cold weather and high winds?

Peter King, Sports Illustrated: San Francisco
Not going to happen. We've gone over this already.

Jeff Duncan, New Orleans Times-Picayune: Miami
Not after taking Pat White in the early 2nd last year and Henne as the solid starter.

Alex Marvez, Foxsports.com: Cleveland
With the No. 7 overall pick? No chance. And won't last until Cleveland in Round 2. He's not a Holmgren-type QB, either.

Jeff Darlington, Miami Herald: Tampa Bay
Right: The year after they drafted Josh Freeman? No. 3 overall? Never. Top of the 2nd? Won't be there.

Jason Cole, Yahoo! Sports: New England
You all know this was my pet theory. But the Pats can't afford to ignore their defensive issues, can they? If Tebow is available at No. 22 -- and he might be, if the Jags inexplicably pass at No. 10 -- then Bill Belichick has a big decision to make that violates everything we know about him.

Plus this:

Asked Rick Gosselin, the hugely respected draft/NFL man for the Dallas Morning News who does the best mock draft in our business, for his over/under on the overall pick for Tebow. "Twenty-eight,'' he said.

I will take that under and wonder how good "best" could possibly be if he doesn't recognize the high likelihood of Tebow going to the Jaguars. Gosselin seems to still think the NFL will react rationally about Tebow, as they have about all the other picks in its history.

Senior Bowl Tebow: Draftniks Pounce

As soon as you saw last Friday's opening notes of experts coming out to bolster Tim Tebow's draft stock after weeks of expectations-dampening punishment -- a backlash, if you will -- you knew that the Senior Bowl would present the opportunity for a "backlash to the backlash."

And yesterday's performance by Tebow at the Senior Bowl allowed the draftniks to do just that: Question his fumbles during the center exchange, question his accuracy, question his mechanics.

He is a big enough story -- the most intriguing NFL Draft prospect of the 2010 Draft (and, arguably, ever) -- that I led my Sporting News column today with an argument that I think a lot of you will find familiar, but certainly in the new context of Senior Bowl Day 1 criticism:

Does it matter HOW Tim Tebow performs at the Senior Bowl this week?

Does it matter that in is first Senior Bowl practice, he bobbled the exchange with the center? Does it matter that his throws were inaccurate? Does it matter that gleeful draftniks took the moment to pounce?

No, for a couple of reasons:

*Expectations: Scouts had already battered Tebow's mechanics over the past few weeks to the point where his ability to merely walk without stumbling is a moral victory. Low expectations always help; nowhere to go but up.

*It was Day 1: Did scouts really expect Tebow to come in and seamlessly transition to a new style, with new players around him? No pre-draft rookie QB is instantly ready for the NFL. Give him a week... or three months... or three seasons.

*Tebow defies grading: Commensurate with his status as the Senior Bowl's -- and college football's -- biggest rock star, there is a strong chance that he could have mediocre workouts yet still go in the Draft's Top 10, to the Jaguars.

Undoubtedly, this drives the draftniks crazy, because it is irrational -- and because it makes their opinion about the most intriguing prospect in NFL Draft history irrelevant.

Draftniks have two choices: Bash Tebow and look like fools when he goes in the 1st round, or abandon their analysis and reflect more accurate "reality" in their mock draft. Either way, the only mockery is the draftnik-industrial complex.

It's fair to be torn about Tebow -- fans are close to 50/50 on whether he will be a "good" pro QB -- but that's what makes his NFL prospects so interesting. Unfortunately for them, draftniks aren't paid to be torn.

We will see what will happen today. But there are a couple of things we know: Tebow will perform better, if only because he will have another day of reps under his belt. It's still not clear that he even HAS to perform better. And this will drive the draft "experts" batty.

Senior Bowl Tebow: Peter King Approves

From today's "Monday Morning Quarterback" column, Peter King talks about Tebow -- including a conversation he had with Tebow directly:

We in the media business are going to spend the next three months writing the Tebow story into the ground, but there are good reasons for it. He's had unparalleled college success, he's a too-good-to-be-true kid by all accounts, and he's a polarizing football prospect because there's great debate whether his mechanics and arm will allow him to be an every-down NFL quarterback.

***

Tebow will wow everyone he meets one-on-one in Mobile and at the Scouting Combine next month with his poise, presence and humility. That you know, obviously. When I asked about one of the biggest faults NFL scouts find with him -- his elongated throwing motion -- he said it's something scouts also said about Brett Favre and Philip Rivers when they were prospects, and it hasn't seemed to hurt them. Then he said: "I've been training every day since the Sugar Bowl. Every day. And that's one of the things I've been working diligently on. I think the scouts and coaches will see it's something I've improved on.''

Tebow wants to open himself up totally, beginning this week. He wants to show every team in the league everything he can do physically and mentally, and he wants to begin to prove he's not a one-trick pony -- a triple-option quarterback who loves to bowl over linebackers and make weird jump passes and other counter-NFL-culture plays.

"I want to show, number one, that I'm a competitor and I'm not afraid for teams to see everything about me. My goal is to find just one team, one out of 32, to believe in me as a quarterback. I'm not just the guy who can play in the spread offense, or throw a jump pass or run the triple option. I'm a football junkie. I study it all the time. I've studied every type of offense -- pro style, West Coast. Just because I haven't played every kind of offense, why can't I? Why can't I run the West Coast? My coaches at Florida didn't just teach us a system. They taught us football. So I want the NFL people to put me through everything. Grind on me, test me. I feel I've worked my whole life to prepare for this.''

Tebow will excel when NFL teams (mostly at the combine in Indianapolis, but some in Mobile) get him up on the board and start talking specific plays with him. He'll need to prove he can be an accurate downfield passer and that he isn't totally reliant on running to be a good quarterback. I asked what he'd do if a team wanted him to be a versatile player instead of an every-down quarterback.

"It's a possibility,'' he said, "but I'm trying to get someone to believe in me as a quarterback.''

I expect he'll do that.

Remember that King has been promoting Tebow the past few weeks -- but still only has him rated as a player to go in the early 2nd round. What I really want to see is King work his sources to confirm the theory that the Jags are taking Tebow at No. 10 and that's that.

Senior Bowl Tebow: The Weigh-In

Tim Tebow weighed in at the Senior Bowl: 6-foot-2 (and a half), 236 pounds. (Unsurprising that UF media guide rounded up. About the same weight.)



Be sure to read the post below for a full context to the Senior Bowl week.

NFL Tebow: Senior Bowl Mania Begins

Tim Tebow arrived at the Senior Bowl in Mobile yesterday, making his intentions very clear:

"I'm here to be an NFL quarterback."

*And that is why Tebow is the most intriguing prospect of the 2010 NFL Draft -- or, arguably, any NFL Draft.

*It is why Tebow is the biggest storyline not just of the 2010 Senior Bowl -- but of any Senior Bowl.

*It is why Tebow's commitment to play in this game triggered a sell-out of tickets.

*It is why Tebow will command media scrutiny and scouts' attention like no other player ever.

As it turns out, playing in the Senior Bowl was -- as NFL Network's Mike Mayock put it -- a "brilliant" decision. Not only does it show Tebow's fearlessness in the face of scouts' skepticism, but it forces himself into (and at the top of) the draft conversation right now, rather than at the combine.

I dug into this a bit late last week: If Tebow has anything going for himself in this draft process, it is that scouts and draftniks already did the hard work for him: They lowered the expectations so much that if Tebow can walk without stumbling, it is an improvement on scouts' take on his footwork. If Tebow can make a completion or put any zip on the ball, it is an improvement on scouts' scathing analysis of his mechanics.

Tebow has already won the expectations game: He can only go up from here.

And he will. Because he will out-perform scouts' expectations -- he already has (see last week's early momentum in favor of Tebow). And none of the scouts want to be so outside of the mainstream that they look like fools. And so they will improve his "grade."

I read a quote from Todd McShay this weekend that Tebow will be "overdrafted" (taken too high) and end up in the mid-40s, like Pat White a year ago. I find McShay's idea that his grade or evaluation somehow matters to be cute. How will he reconcile it when Tebow is drafted in the Top 10 -- as expected by all sorts of draft "realists" who see him going to the Jaguars.

(You can already see it with the talking point "All it takes is one team." And that team, at a minimum, is the Jaguars. Everyone already knows it. No matter how much another team may like him, not another team in the Top 10 will be willing to spend a Top 10 draft pick on him like the Jaguars will. And so plenty of other teams might be willing to take him in the back half of the first round -- or any pick of the 2nd. He simply won't last that long, whether that is "over-drafting" or not. Your draft value is not what the scouts say it is, but the position you are actually drafted at. By the way, check out the new site Draft15.com, a populist effort by Jags fans to get their team to take Tebow. I don't think they have to worry. I even like the T-shirt they made for it. Or, at least, the front side. I could do without the trite "If you draft him, they will come" slogan on the back. As if drafting Tebow solves the Jaguars' attendance issues -- it doesn't, at least entirely. They may be drafting him for marketing, but -- Senior Bowl ticket sales data point aside -- I don't think he will solve that problem in the comprehensive way some think he will.)

Anyway, Tebow will be THE center of attention in Mobile this week. Practice starts today, and if you have NFL Network, you can actually watch. Otherwise, there are a ton of reporters there, eager to tell you everything that Tebow is doing -- and what the scouts are saying. Expect a ton of "better than I expected" and "already see improvements" and -- especially -- "extremely coachable" and "intangibles are off the charts." I think that seeing his leadership and attitude and willingness to learn up close will change a lot of opinions.

I think that a big misconception that some scouts are promoting is this idea that Tebow has to look and play like an NFL quarterback already. Few college QBs -- certainly at the stage of the Senior Bowl -- are NFL-ready. Why can't he simply show that he has the raw tools to be an NFL QB? Isn't it the NFL coaches' jobs -- once he's on a team -- to take those tools and turn him into an NFL QB? I just don't buy that he has to be polished TODAY.

And even though I discount the scouts and draftniks, I find it intriguing to follow the way the conventional wisdom about Tebow will shift. You saw the first signs of that late last week, and I anticipate that it will grow even stronger this week as more jump on the bandwagon.

Then, of course, we can wonder about when the "backlash to the backlash" will happen.

The kicker is the advice that Tebow said Urban Meyer gave him: "Just be you, and you'll be fine."

I'm going to assume that by "you," Meyer meant Tebow's infectious enthusiasm, drive, leadership and will to dominate (rather than his elongated throwing motion). And Meyer is right: Tebow moves up the draft with a little bit of technical improvement.

But the reason he will go in the Top 10 to the Jags... the reason he is the biggest star ever at the Senior Bowl... the reason he is the most intriguing draft prospect of all time...

...Is because Tim will be Tim.

*****

UPDATE: Tim will be Tim in at least one way -- he will wear jersey No. 15 in the Senior Bowl. (BTW, I love the intentions behind Draft15.com... um, what happens when he wears No. 5 in the NFL? No confirmation on this, but I presume that because he wore No. 5 in high school, Tebow would have taken No. 5 at Florida as a freshman if Andre Caldwell didn't already have it. Of course, the Jags have both No. 15 and No. 5 open on their roster, so Tebow can have his choice.)

NFL Tebow: Next Vince Young?

Tim Tebow and Vince Young had similar profiles coming out of college: They put up prolific stats, they played in friendly "systems," and they were both massive winners. That's why when you see rankings of the top college football player of the past decade, it usually went TT-VY as 1-2.

Interestingly, when Young went into the NFL, the only question was how high he should go. Some thought the Texans should take him No. 1 overall. He eventually went to the Titans at No. 3 overall, and plenty of people thought he was a steal -- confirmed when he won Rookie of the Year.

But Young's mechanics were questionable. His football IQ was bashed from all sides when his alleged Wonderlic score (appallingly low) was leaked. And yet there was little question that he was a 1st-round talent and a "game-changing" NFL QB.

As it turns out, Young had trouble after that rookie season -- last season, he was even benched, buried deep behind Kerry Collins, who led the Titans to an incredibly successful season. It was only this season -- after Titans' winlessness made it a "nothing left to lose" proposition -- did VY get the job back. He turned it into a Pro Bowl-worthy run of starts.

Interestingly, it's not like he redefined the QB position this season. In fact, with Jeff Fisher, Young was a game manager, if anything. Get the ball to all-world playmaker Chris Johnson and otherwise try not to lose the game with dumb turnovers. (Young did have that sick last-minute 90-yard game-winning TD drive against the Cardinals, a career highlight.)

So the question is: Why don't scouts see Tim Tebow's potential in the same way they see Young's? Is it just a question of mechanics? Isn't that the easiest thing to fix?

Anyway: NFL.com's Gil Brandt -- perhaps my favorite person at the league, from the year I worked there -- has been bullish on Tebow from the start, projecting him as a 1st-round pick when others were grading him out as a 3rd-rounder. (It happens to be that Brandt also decides what players come to NYC for the Draft, and I would be stunned if Tebow wasn't in that group, no matter where he is projected to get drafted) -- gets asked about Tebow all the time, and he compared him to Young:

"Tim’s situation is just like Vince Young. Just like they have Tim, people doubted (Vince). And we now have a lot of negative Vince Young people becoming positive Vince Young people because of his success."

Just one more data point, heading into next week's Senior Bowl mayhem.

Draft Tebow: Buzz Continues to Build

First this morning, there was the report in the Tennessean about the rave reviews Tim Tebow is getting in his private workout facility in Franklin, Tennessee.

Now, add a report from ESPN.com's Len Pasquarelli, giving air time to a perspective directly at odds with his colleagues Mel Kiper and Todd McShay.

Pasquarelli provides an unambiguous platform for Ken Herock, who runs a pre-draft clinic for players to prepare for combine interviews. Herock also has long experience as an NFL scout. Listen:

"He's by far the best [prospect] with whom I've ever worked. He walks into a room and he just energizes it. Whatever 'it' is, he's definitely got 'it.' & Even for a guy like me, who's done this for so long, you almost get goosebumps."

There you go. Now, Tebow is Herock's client, so it's fair to say that Herock was going to be positive. But this is beyond positive. More:

"His release might be a little low at this point, but a lot of people talked about Philip Rivers' delivery too before he was drafted, and look at what he's done. I've heard all the supposed [negatives]. But I watched [Tebow] on the field and his velocity is good enough, and so is his accuracy. As far as his learning, you don't have to tell him anything twice. And he's a student of the game. I recommended that he watch some tapes of Steve Young, and he said, 'Oh, I've already done that.' He wants to be good. He wants to succeed. And he will succeed."

From the pre-Senior Bowl buzz that is already building, it is obvious that the strategic decision by Tebow to participate will pay off huge. If the last few weeks -- if not last few months -- was dominated by "Who knows?" at best and "Meh" at worst (McShay/Kiper), we are about to see not just "exceeds (low) expectations," but flat-out "yes, he can play; yes, he's worth a 1st."

That will be the meme coming out of next week in Mobile. That will be the talking point. As I wrote earlier today, that is the benefit of the low expectations to start.

As I have also said repeatedly over the months of draft discussion, it is going to be fascinating to see all the doubters/haters walk back their criticism to fall in line with conventional wisdom, rather than keeping themselves out there against it.

They will almost certainly use the Senior Bowl to start that process.

The draftniks are not dumb -- they know they can't be too far outside the mainstream. There is interesting contrarianism, and then there is looking foolish. Draftniks -- like all pundits -- have a supreme weakness: Fear of looking like a fool.

And thus conventional wisdom is generated....

(h/t: OnlyGators)

Tim Tebow's Private Tennessee Workouts

Tim Tebow has one of the most important events of his professional life next week -- his public debut for NFL scouts and coaches (not to mention the draftnik-industrial complex) in Mobile, Alabama, at the Senior Bowl.

In preparation, Tebow has been working out at D1 Sports Training, a facility in Franklin, TN. He has not had any media availability, but a new report today has a couple of very interesting details.

Kudos to Jim Wyatt of the Tennessean for doing some sleuthing and getting a couple of peripheral reports from Tebow's workouts.

The money quote, from Kurt Hester, who runs the training at D1:

I told him when he came in, this place is not for everybody. We are that blue-collar facility, we work. And he has not skipped a beat. He is not a prima donna. He does not complain.

He has a stronger arm than I thought he would. You hear different things, but he has a ton of velocity on the ball.

When they see him in person, how he moves and throws, his work ethic at the Senior Bowl, and his passion for the game, I think that is what is going to move him up on the draft.

This guy has fire. He has that Brett Favre fire about him. He has that switch where if you challenge him in any way, you can see it in his eyes, he is ready to compete.'

Wyatt reports that Tebow has been working out with former Georgia and NFL QB Zeke Bratkowski, and former NFL head coach and QB guru Sam Wyche has helped, too.

See that part of Hester's quote I bold-faced above. The absurdly low expectations that have been set out by many NFL scouts and draftniks works in Tebow's favor in one very important way:

He has nowhere to go but up.

When Tebow shows up in Mobile and shows he can make the throws, the scouts will invariably improve their ratings -- again, it's not like they can get much more bearish.

And then you will see the buzz about drafting Tebow explode -- and this is before the interview segment.

I have been saying this for six months: Teams WANT a reason to draft Tebow. They just want to see a glimmer that they can develop him into a full-time NFL QB (or at least see how they can use him creatively).

Some, like the Jags, might take him regardless of scouts' grades. But if even a few scouts come around on him -- as early as next week in Mobile -- he will shoot up draft boards on the merit of his skills... and not just as some anomaly to Jacksonville.

NFL Tebow: Leftwich Meets Alstott?

You know I love the "Tim Tebow is like..." comps to current or former NFL players: Steve Young. Donovan McNabb. Eric Crouch. (Ugh.) Frank Wycheck. (Ugh.)

Here's a new one, passed along by the PBP's Ben Volin:

The people at WalterFootball.com compare Tebow as a hybrid between Byron Leftwich and Mike Alstott. Sounds about right.

A combo of Leftwich and Alstott. I love that. It's totally freaky -- not unlike Tebow's pro potential. I hope wherever he lands, the coaches simultaneously develop him as a QB and deploy him in weird ways that push the envelope of strategy.

In their latest mock draft, the folks at WF currently have Tebow going No. 10 to the Jaguars -- kudos to them for reflecting "reality" in their mock, rather than irrelevant grades from scouts.

Sometimes it's about best player available. Sometimes it's about filling a need. Sometimes it's about organizational fit. And sometimes -- very rarely -- it's about marketing.

(Here's a mailbag from WF, defending the pick along those lines.)

Tim Tebow was an anomaly as a college football phenomenon and he will be an anomaly as an NFL draft prospect. He may very well be an anomaly as a player, too.

To wit: When was the last time you heard of a prospect compared to a cross between an immobile QB and an oversized RB? (By the way, isn't that Daunte Culpepper in his early years?)
*****

By the way: Next week around here will be wall-to-wall NFL Draft coverage -- specifically focused on the Senior Bowl, where Tebow will be THE player to watch. In case you still don't think that the college mania translates to the pros, just watch how insane the Tebow coverage will be next week.

Brand Tebow: Most Marketable Player Ever?

"He is the most marketable guy we've ever seen coming out of college."

-- CNBC's Darren Rovell, on the Dan Patrick Show this morning talking about Tim Tebow's marketing potential.

Rovell is right. No college athlete has ever combined the name recognition, installed popularity and built-in sponsorship partnerships like Tebow has. That his role or value in the NFL is still being debated makes it all the more remarkable.

So which traditional sports marketer will be first: EA? Nike? Gatorade?