NFL Tebow: Bound for Browns?

Tim Tebow reportedly met with the Cleveland Browns yesterday. Mike Holmgren was at Tebow's Pro Day last month and had complimentary things to say. Holmgren has also jettisoned Cleveland's previous QBs, and seems intent on starting over, grooming his own guy.

I would rate the Browns as a "1st tier" team in the Tebow discussion -- the handful of teams most likely to draft Tebow.

There is no way they use their 1st-round pick (No. 7 overall) to take Tebow, but they pick No. 6 in Round 2 -- a primetime spot for Tebow, three picks ahead of the Bills.

But I suspect that if Holmgren really is targeting Tebow at the 38th overall pick, he will be holding his breath for those first 4 picks of the round to see if the Rams/Lions/Bucs/Chiefs trade out to a team that wants to hop over Cleveland (or Buffalo) to get him... or even if the Eagles snipe Tebow with the 5th pick of the round, one spot before the Browns pick.

Here's an X-factor: If the Bills are really interested, they may get very squeamish about having to sit through the Eagles and, especially, the Browns (and perhaps even the Raiders, who pick 8th in the 2nd round).

Buffalo could be one of those teams that spends the overnight time after the 1st round -- if Tebow is even still on the board -- wrangling with the Rams/Lions/Bucs/Chiefs to move up to their spot to get him.

NFL Tebow: Jersey Gallery

The popular game among folks who cover Tebow closely -- or simply want to appeal to the huge appetite nationally for all things Tebow -- is to weigh his fit on every NFL team.

Kudos to GatorSports.com and editor/blogger Jon McDonald for going the extra distance: Not just an analysis of each team's "Tebow need," but creating Tebow jerseys for every team.

Visually, this is a nice bookend to the college football preview magazine covers from last summer.

Here is a sampling, featuring the Patriots, Eagles and Bills -- all teams mentioned for their potential to draft Tebow inside the first two rounds of the Draft.




Per GatorSports.com, all images created via NFLShop.com.

The images don't reflect that teams may have players wearing No. 15 already. For example, Felton Huggins wears No. 15 on the Bills. I presume the 2nd-year WR would be happy to "donate" his number to Tebow in exchange for some kind of "gratuity."

NFL Tebow: Respect the Tebubble

I just tweeted this from my @danshanoff account:

Attention sports pundits: Saying "I don't think Tebow will last past the 2nd round" is no longer considered bold.

I ended it with a hashtag coining the word "Tebubble."

What is the Tebubble? It is the reality -- amid all the draftnik prognosticating and mock-ification of what will happen in two weeks -- that Tebow's stock is only going up.

By using the word "bubble," I do not mean to suggest that he is overvalued -- just that the stock is only going up from here until 16 days from now, not down.

Consider where we came from: Todd McShay labeling Tebow a 3rd- or 4th-round talent. There was some chit-chat of the Jags taking him at No. 10, and a little bit of 2nd-round talk (certainly around here).

Now, it is ludicrous to think that he would fall through the 2nd round and into the 3rd -- hence my tweet. He is a SOLID 2nd-rounder, at worst.

I said this last week: His FLOOR should be the mid-2nd round -- probably the Bills pick at No. 41. But, chances are, he will go higher than that.

Here is the biggest signal: No one is surprised -- well, except McShay and Kiper -- that Tebow's name is being tossed around as a late-1st-rounder.

Now, that could be GMs blowing smoke, but I suspect there is at least -- AT LEAST -- one team out there that would take Tebow at the back of the 1st round, unwilling to roll the dice that Tebow won't be swiped out from under them at the top of the 2nd, given that a frenzy of GMs will have 12 hours to try to convince the teams at the top of the 2nd to trade out so they can get Tebow at the top of the 2nd.

At the rate his draft stock his climbing, maybe Bob Tebow's "Top 15" prediction from two weeks ago will come true after all.

You are absolutely within your rights to disagree that Tim Tebow is a 1st-round (or even 2nd-round) prospect.

But you have to respect the Tebubble, because -- in the end -- your draft value is as simple as where you get taken.

UPDATE: NFL.com hops on the 1st-round bandwagon. Folks, we're still more than two weeks away and we're already here? Whew: Hang on....

Tim Tebow Signs With Nike

The news just broke, per ESPN's Adam Schefter: Tim Tebow has signed a marketing deal with Nike for shoes and apparel.

This is unsurprising, given Nike's deep relationship with the University of Florida. But Tebow is also the biggest star in college football -- and has emerged as one of the most marketable and talked-about athletes in the country. Tebow has a legion of die-hard followers and he can be the unique athlete who actually moves product with his endorsement.

Nike had to have him -- and got him, for the bargain price of $300,000 per year. Great fit.

But let's not overlook a much more profound point:

This is unprecedented. It is unprecedented for a rookie coming into the NFL who will, more likely than not, be a 2nd-round pick to get a monster endorsement deal from a Nike. It will be the biggest shoe/apparel deal that any NFL rookie in 2010 will sign. Including Sam Bradford.

But that's not where it ends: Not only will Tebow get the Nike deal, but he will get the EA deal (inevitably), as he will get the Gatorade deal. And that's just the obvious ones. Then there's the vitamin. The watch. The credit card. The automobile.

Tebow will defy the contraction among athlete endorsement deals. The question is when -- not if -- he will crack the Top 5 highest-paid endorsers in the NFL.

And all that while it is still in question whether or not he will take a snap as a starting QB in the NFL -- or more than a handful of snaps in his first year or two. If/when Tebow exceeds those limited expectations, even more money will follow.

But don't pay attention to the draftniks -- for a better estimate of Tebow's relevance to NFL fans and the companies that want to reach them, follow the money.

And if you think that an NFL owner of a struggling team isn't paying at least some attention (and giving some weight) to that when weighing in with his GM, coach and scouting staff, you're naive.

NFL Tebow: King on Eagles Interest

Following up last night's post evaluating draft interest in Tim Tebow from the Redskins and, now, the Eagles, here is the analysis from Peter King:

I have heard the Eagles will now focus on Tebow and are likely to join the parade of teams working him out and spending time with him. With seven picks in the first four rounds, Philadelphia has the ammo to go get the developmental quarterback Reid always likes to have on his roster.

As I said last night, Tebow wouldn't exactly be a complete project for Philly: He can come in and immediately run any of the Wildcat packages that were previously installed for Vick.

My "why not?" from last night suddenly looks like a "could very well be." At the very least, it was hardly a stretch to immediately put the Eagles in the Tebow Derby.

(h/t: Andrea Adelson)

NFL Tebow: Impact of McNabb Trade?

Just to show you that we can connect anything to Tim Tebow, let's take a quick look at what the Donovan McNabb trade to the Redskins might mean for Tebow's draft prospects:

In the deal, the Redskins traded their 2nd-round pick -- No. 37 overall -- to the Eagles. This -- combined with trading for a QB -- effectively ends any prospects the Redskins might draft Tebow.

It doesn't preclude them from trading other picks to get back to the top of the 2nd round, but it would seem odd if the Redskins traded picks to get to the top of the 2nd to take a QB, when they just traded the 2nd-rounder for... a QB.

How about the team now picking 37th overall -- the Eagles? Would Philadelphia have any interest in drafting Tim Tebow, perhaps replacing their old No. 5 with a new No. 5?

Kevin Kolb appears to be Philly's QB for the present -- and future. Mike Vick is likely not a long-term solution as a backup.

It doesn't feel like a dire team need to take Tim Tebow with this early 2nd-round pick -- but Tebow could replace Vick as backup QB (running any of the Wildcat packages that the team built for Vick over the past year) and develop into a potential replacement for Kolb in a few years.

To summarize: The Redskins would seem to be out of the hunt for Tebow, and the Eagles could join the group of suitors... but it doesn't seem like a sure thing.

UPDATE: Uber-Eagles fan Dan Levy, my colleague from the Sporting News, weighs in on this: "No chance."

Tim Tebow vs. Jim Kelly

Let's be clear: Jim Kelly has zero say in the Bills' draft strategy -- he might even tell you that the team has no business taking his advice. So when he says the Bills should draft Tim Tebow, it's like you or me saying the Bills should draft Tim Tebow.

Now, does that mean the Bills won't draft Tebow? Hardly. It would be a serious reach for them to take him at No. 9 overall, but I can't see them letting him get past them if he is available at No. 9 of the 2nd round, where the Bills next pick.

In that way, the Bills book-end Tebow's floor and ceiling. (Jim Kelly can feel free to use that analysis.)

NFL Tebow: 2nd Round Scenarios

Consider this post the companion to yesterday's post about the scenarios where Tim Tebow is drafted in the 1st round of the 2010 NFL Draft. Same set-up:

Three weeks from today, Tim Tebow will either be basking as the top-of-the-headlines coverage that he was drafted the night before, in the 1st round...

...or he will be anxiously waiting to see who drafts him in the 2nd round. If Tebow is NOT taken in the 1st round, "Where will Tebow go?" will be THE story of Friday morning before the 2nd round, even eclipsing Sam Bradford going No. 1 overall, 1st-round trades, whatever.

Consider that for a second: The draft status of a 2nd-round pick will be the No. 1 story of the NFL Draft, the morning after the 1st round of the draft is held. Unprecedented.

Regardless, if Tebow isn't drafted in the 1st round, the hours in between the end of the 1st round and the start of the 2nd round will be a frenzy of Tebow-related deal-making.

Now that Tebow has cleared the guaranteed contract that comes with being a 1st-round pick, a slew of teams will jockey to invest a 2nd-round pick on him.

In fact, I can't see Tebow going any later than the first few picks of the 2nd round. There are two main scenarios:

Scenario 1: A team with a natural selection at the top of the 2nd round will take him. The Rams, Lions, Bucks and Chiefs presumably don't want/need him. Then it gets interesting:

5th pick of the 2nd round: Redskins, who will be a hot suitor (if they don't get Bradford in Round 1).

6th pick: Browns, another team that could use a QB for the future -- Mike Holmgren had a lot to say about Tebow at his Pro Day in Gainesville.

7th pick: Raiders. You know Al Davis is hot to draft Tebow, if only because he appreciates Tebow's marketing value as much as any owner.

8th pick: Chargers. Unlikely.

9th pick: Bills. If Tebow is still around -- and, of course, presuming the Bills haven't taken Tebow with the 9th overall pick of the Draft the night before (where he is predicted to go by the latest mock draft of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) -- I assume they will draft him here. He will not drop beyond this point.

The Patriots have picks at No. 12 and No. 15 of the 2nd round. I just don't see Tebow slipping down to them at those points. Which leads to...

Scenario 2: A team trades up to the top of the round to get Tebow. I could see the talent-starved Rams, Lions, Bucks and Chiefs all willing to trade out of their positions in order to stockpile more picks later in the round -- or into the later rounds of the Draft.

This is where the Patriots -- if they really want Tebow -- can package one of their 3 2nd-round picks, along with later-round picks, to move up and get him, while still retaining at least two other 2nd-round picks they can use for a more pressing need.

But there are plenty of other teams that might want to trade up, including the Bills (9th pick of 2nd round), the Panthers (16th) or Cowboys (27th). And don't discount one of those teams picking between No. 5 and No. 7 in the round (Redskins, Browns, Raiders) -- fearing being jumped for Tebow -- trading up those few spots to secure him.

There you have it: I put Tebow's draft "floor" at the No. 9 pick of the 2nd round -- to the Bills. That's as far as he will fall; if he goes any lower, I will be very surprised.

The more likely scenario is that he goes ahead of that, perhaps as early as the 1st pick of the 2nd round, particularly given that teams can spend the entire night after the 1st round scheming and dealing to make their move for Tebow.

There will not be another installment of this series to cover the 3rd round -- three weeks from Saturday -- because Tebow will be long gone by then.

Tebow's status as a "Top 41" pick in the 2010 NFL Draft is "when," (and "to whom") not "if."

If the latest mock draft in the AJC is any indication, Tebow's stock is going up so quickly that by next week, we will have to revise this post to say "There's no way he's slipping out of the 1st round."

-- D.S.

No Fooling: Tebow Wonderlic Story a Fable

Appropriate for April Fool's Day, that story from a week ago about Tim Tebow futilely asking for a pre-Wonderlic prayer has been debunked by someone who was there.

NFL Tebow: Headed For 1st Round?

Three weeks from today, we will know whether Tim Tebow is selected as a 1st-round pick in the 2010 NFL Draft.

And signs point to Tebow sliding up from the top of the 2nd round into the 1st round.

If you consider that the conventional draftnik consensus is that Tebow is a 3rd- or 4th-round talent whose "intangibles" inflate his value to the 2nd round (always caveated with a "maybe"), it is nothing short of remarkable that Tebow is very much in the mix as a 1st-round pick (except to those of us who study the Tebow draft dynamic closely).

Let's look at the two prevailing scenarios that put him in the 1st round:

Scenario 1: He is taken in the top half of the 1st round of the Draft by the Bills (at No. 9) or the Jaguars (at No. 10) or, perhaps, by the Seahawks (at No. 14).

Appropriately enough for a player whose career is defined by superlatives, any of these scenarios would make it the most controversial draft pick in NFL history.

*The Bills are desperate enough for a "face" of the franchise -- not to mention a QB -- that they just might do it. If they want to be talked about, THIS would make them talked about.

*The Jaguars, oddly, have been very quiet -- perhaps too quiet -- about Tebow, perhaps glad that almost all of the public pressure (or presumption) to take him has dissipated.

*The Seahawks are motivated to create their own new direction under Pete Carroll. With a 1st-round pick in the Top 10, they could get a "need" player first, easing the pressure if they take a "want" player like Tebow. (Then again, Seattle just traded for Charlie Whitehurst.)

Scenario 2: He is taken at the end of the 1st round. Again: That Tebow is a 1st-round NFL pick -- at all, regardless of draft slot -- will be the story of the draft.

It is hard to pinpoint a particular team that might take him before the 1st round is over. But let's look at three options:

*Team uses its natural draft position: The Patriots draft 22nd, the Cowboys draft 27th, the defending champ Saints draft 32nd. All are confident enough to make a big splash.

*Team trades back: You could envision the Jaguars trading back from No. 10; picking Tebow in the late-20s feels much less controversial for Jacksonville than at No. 10.

*Team trades up: 1st-round picks cost a lot more in guaranteed contract than 2nd-round picks, but there are plenty of contenders who would rather stockpile late-round picks in exchange for their late-1st-round pick, swapping with a team that wants Tebow.

(Alternatively, the Patriots have 3 2nd-round picks -- plus Oakland's 1st-round pick in 2011 -- and could put together the package to trade up into the back of the 1st round. Then again, that seems very out-of-character for Belichick, who is a pick stock-piler.)

Here is where we net out -- three weeks away:

I originally thought Tebow was a lock to the Jags at No. 10. I eventually revised that, then assumed he would slip all the way through the 1st round -- but then get snapped up right at the top of the 2nd round, after a frenzy of deal-making in between the 1st and 2nd rounds.

But my other presumption has been that Tebow's draft stock is not going down -- only up. If his current floor is the top of the 2nd, the only movement will be into the 1st round.

I would be surprised -- but not shocked -- to see Tebow go to the Bills at No. 9 overall. I would be shocked -- but not surprised -- to see Tebow go to the Jaguars at No. 10 overall.

And I would not be surprised or shocked to see a team take Tebow before the 1st round is over.

The inaugural Thursday night primetime 1st round of the NFL Draft may start with the big story being Sam Bradford being drafted by the Rams (or perhaps forcing a trade to the Redskins).

But by the time the 1st round is over, the biggest story will be about which team has taken Tebow in the 1st round.

(If he isn't taken -- and by the time we get to three weeks from now, I am fairly convinced that the conventional wisdom will be that he IS going to be taken in the 1st round -- the big storyline will be which teams are angling to take him at the top of the 2nd round the next day.)

-- D.S.

UPDATE: The Falcons GM, Tom Dimitroff, told Tom Curran of NESN that Tebow won't make it out of the 1st round. Now, all pre-draft commentary from team executives should be run through a b.s. filter, but a guy who has Matt Ryan probably speaks more genuinely about QBs in the draft than GMs who actually need a QB.

UPDATE 2: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has Tebow going to the Bills with the No. 9 overall pick of the draft.

NFL Tebow vs. Andre Caldwell

Andre Caldwell has an interesting opinion about Tim Tebow's NFL prospects:

He needs time. He needs to sit behind one of those good quarterbacks for about three years because I know he's going to put in the work and the effort to be a great quarterback. He's going to learn. I don't think he's going to be an elite passer ever. But he's a playmaker. He'll get the ball there. He probably can't make the prettiest looking passes. But he's going to use what he has to his advantage--running, scrambling, making passes. He's got a strong arm and I think he can make the throws, but they may not be the prettiest.

To Bubba's credit, the Herald's Joe Goodman calls that "the best explanation of Tebow's abilities that I've heard." Agreed: Chalk one up for nuance!

NFL Tebow: Tour Hits New England

After spending some time in Buffalo, Tim Tebow has taken his pre-draft tour to Boston. According to reports, he is meeting with the Patriots -- including, according to the Boston Herald, dinner with Bill Belichick in the North End of Boston last night.

Given Belichick's (and Bob Kraft's) close relationship with Urban Meyer -- not to mention Belichick's longtime fascination with the implications for the single-wing in the NFL behind a bruising dual-threat QB -- the Pats' attention on Tebow is not surprising.

The Patriots have 3 2nd-round picks -- and there has been wide speculation that they might leverage those picks into selecting Tebow. Two issues:

(1) Tebow could be gone in the 2nd round before their picks come into play, forcing them to trade up to get him.

(2) Tebow may not make it to the 2nd round, period. His stock continues to climb, to the point where you are hearing mainstream outlets speculate on a 1st-round selection.

The big question: Given the Patriots' other pressing needs, would they use their No. 22 overall selection on Tebow? Or would they give up any of their 2nd-round picks to move up into the end of the 1st round to get him?

Don't discount one interesting thing: The Patriots hold the Raiders' 1st-round pick in the 2011 Draft.

If the Patriots really are serious about getting Tebow -- even if it has to happen in the 1st round -- they could use that Raiders 1st in '11 to make a move, either moving the Raiders' pick itself or their own 1st in 2011 (while holding on to the Raiders' pick).

The 1st round of the NFL Draft is in 23 days.

NFL Tebow: Bills Audition Today

Tim Tebow is working out privately for the Buffalo Bills today, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. This, after eating dinner with Bills legendary QB (and Tebow-backer) Jim Kelly last night.

The Bills are arguably the most intriguing team that has been connected to Tebow.

Start with this: They hold the 9th overall pick of the Draft, along with the 9th pick of the 2nd round.

Could/would the Bills possibly take Tebow with the 9th overall pick? Because here's the reality: I don't think Tebow will be around for the 9th pick of the 2nd round, when the Bills come up again.

The Bills need a long-term solution at QB. More than that, they need a face of the franchise -- and Tebow instantly gives them that. They have a new coach, a QB-development specialist.

Here's the downside: Is there a tougher weather environment to play in than Buffalo, where 8 games a year are (a) in the cold and (b) in swirling winds?

Logically, that doesn't make a lot of sense for Tebow, who has only known (mostly) sunshine and high temperatures, with very low wind variability.

Also, even if you're bullish on Tebow, you agree that he needs at least a season -- if not two -- to hone his skills. Can the Bills afford to wait that long for his development?

(I would argue: Yes, completely. They aren't going to challenge for a Super Bowl title -- probably even the playoffs -- for years, no matter who the QB is. So why not bring Tebow along slowly?)

Back to the draft question: Even if the Bills figured out that Tebow can tame the unique Buffalo stadium conditions, would they actually use that No. 9 overall pick on him?

Well, that would certainly make the Bills the story of the 2010 Draft. And if they are looking for buzz -- positive and, potentially, negative -- and are looking for a face for the franchise...

Why not?

NFL Tebow: Intrigued By "Challenge?"

Interesting thesis by Florio over at PFT about how a team might reach for Tim Tebow at the back of Round 1 or the beginning of Round 2 of the NFL Draft because they want to be the one to turn him from project into a capable player -- even a star.

I continue to find it interesting that people think it's some kind of reach that Tebow will go at the back of Round 1 or the start of Round 2. That's exactly where I've said he'll go, for months.

What folks seem to discount -- continually (and I'm not talking about PFT specifically, but every draftnik or "info guy" or expert) -- is what an exceptional case this is with Tebow.

Tebow's situation is unprecedented in the history of the NFL or NFL Draft: Not just the most successful but the most popular player in college football history, a player whose college stats indicate future NFL success, a player who has more interest in him than any draft prospect ever.

As we get closer to the Draft, I will go back through the brief history of Tebow's draft stock. But he was ALWAYS going to end up at the end of Round 1 or the beginning of Round 2. Even after the Senior Bowl. That's the nature of his draft stock: Only going up.

Someone will take a chance, particularly after they see the progress he has made after just a few weeks of intensive workouts -- presumably just a fraction of the development time he will have following being drafted.

Part of the psychology of that draft stock always rising is that a team thinks it can be the one to "turn" him. But part of it is that there is a team that thinks he will be fine -- no "turning" necessary. Part of it is that they see how he can contribute in all sorts of innovative ways.

Part of it is that, suddenly, the QB draft class looks mediocre -- taking a "risk" on Tebow isn't any bigger than risking it on Clausen or McCoy or even gimpy-shouldered Bradford. And next season -- beyond Jake Locker and, perhaps, John Brantley -- the class looks pretty thin, too. And so all of a sudden, giving Tebow 2 years to develop doesn't seem so risky.

And, yes, part of it is a team recognizing that Tebow brings an unprecedented level of fanatic following to the team.

I just don't get why everyone is so surprised that his stock is rising.

Perhaps the most exceptional thing about Tebow is the way that he has absolutely defied the bearish pronouncements of the draftnik-industrial complex.

Again: Tebow's draft stock is not going to drop. Period. At worst, he is a top-of-the-2nd-round pick. And, based on his current trajectory, being picked in the 1st round is not out of the question at all.

Folks should stop talking about it like it is some kind of shock or surprise.

Tebow in Palm Beach via OnlyGators

A good read for a Sunday morning: OnlyGators.com had a chance to talk with Tim Tebow yesterday during Tebow's autograph-signing session in Palm Beach. Nice work by Adam here.

(The signings get a bad rap from Tebow-haters. Yesterday, Tebow also met with a group from the Special Olympics and made a $50,000 donation to his foundation. And he did a "Gator Walk"-style "Tebow Walk" to shake hands and stayed until everyone in line had their stuff signed.

(More from the event from Volin, who was on the scene for the hometown Palm Beach Post.)

NFL Tebow: Workout with Seahawks

Per Volin, Tim Tebow did a private workout with the Seattle Seahawks in Gainesville yesterday.

The Seahawks, of course, were one of the "Gang of Six" teams that had publicly expressed interest in Tebow -- through a private workout or other signaling.

The Seahawks also emerged as an intriguing contender to draft Tebow this week when Bob Tebow was quoted that Tebow was a lock for the Top 15 of the draft.

The Seahawks are the team with picks between 11 and 15 most likely to take Tebow.

NFL Tebow: Drafted In Top 15?

This is coming out as a slow-roll, but last week Bob Tebow said that if Tim Tebow doesn't go to the Jaguars at No. 10 of the NFL Draft, he will go in the Top 15.

Let's start with the floor: Tebow will not go later than the top few picks of the 2nd round.

But the real question is the ceiling Could Tebow go in the 1st -- not just the 1st, but the top half?

If the Tebow team was convinced he was going in the 1st round, they would definitely have him in NYC for what would be a triumphant moment.

(Nevermind that I strongly believe he should be in NYC for the unprecedented prime-time 2nd round, which will be The Tebow Show, if he wants it to be.)

The folks at Pro Football Talk -- hardly a place of Tebow partisanship -- thinks there is something to the 1st-round talk.

Let's scan picks 11-15:

(11) Broncos: Just traded for Brady Quinn. Nope.
(12) Dolphins: Henne. Spent a 2nd on White. Nope.
(13) 49ers: Not drafting another Meyer QB.
(14) Seahawks: Hmm.
(15) Giants: Backup to Eli? Not as a 1st.

The Seahawks are intriguing. Pete Carroll has already indicated his interest in giving Tebow an individual workout. But Carroll just traded for Charlie Whitehurst. And Tebow doesn't really fit the Carroll mold of "USC statuesque" QB. But Tebow fits Carroll's rah-rah cultural style. And the Seahawks have two 1st-round picks. They can go OT (safe) with pick 1, then Tebow.

The other option is that a wildcard (not necessarily Wild Card) team would trade up into the 11-15 range to get Tebow. Besides the Broncos last year, NFL teams horde those 1st-round picks -- they don't come cheap and they don't get used unless a team REALLY wants a player.

That said: All signs point to at least one NFL team ending up REALLY wanting Tebow. Perhaps even enough to trade up into the 1st round.

Will he go Top 15? For a long time, I thought he was a lock to the Jags at No. 10 -- not so much anymore. Will he go 1st round? I'm skeptical, but I certainly wouldn't rule it out.

Here's what we know: If 32 1st-round slots come and go and Tebow hasn't been picked, there will be a frenzied scrum to get to the top of the 2nd round the next day to get him.

Tebow on Thompson: Everyone Chill

"I don't think Deonte meant anything by that. He was just stating facts. Brantley is a guy who throws on timing. You know when the ball is coming and when it's not."

-- Tim Tebow, on Deonte Thompson's comments that John Brantley was a "real" quarterback. This incited a two-layer kerfluffle:

(1) That Thompson might have been slighting Tebow. My feeling is that Thompson didn't intend a slight, and that Tebow's read is the same as mine: Brantley is - for lack of a better phrase - a more "traditional" QB than Tebow was. I don't think anyone will dispute this.

In fact, I have said here repeatedly that by the end of the 2010 season, Brantley will be the No. 2-rated NFL QB prospect for the 2011 Draft, behind Jake Locker (not unlike Mark Sanchez's one-year leap).

(2) This thing yesterday where Urban Meyer went off on the Sentinel's Jeremy Fowler for printing the Thompson quote. Urban can do what he wants, frankly; similarly, it's not Fowler's job to make Meyer happy. Here's the thing:

The original sin here wasn't Fowler quoting Thompson; it was everyone in sports media totally mis-reading Thompson's quote, for maximum sensationalism. That, in turn, brought out Meyer's defensiveness (or attempt to re-frame power over the media in the post-Tebow era).

As with the ridiculous Wonderlic anecdote yesterday, let's let Tebow have the last word -- and the role of cooling off over-heated media... and coaches.

(h/t: PB Post)

-- Dan

Tebow-Wonderlic Story: Debunked by Tebow

UPDATE: Debunked! In a "typical Tim" move -- and indicative of how you should judge the original story -- Tebow actually called Mike Florio, the editor of Pro Football Talk, and told him the story was absolutely not true.

It's a show of respect to Florio -- and it is a show of how secure (not to mention media-savvy) Tebow is to call Florio directly to debunk the rumor, after it became the odd sports meme of the day. Florio stands by his sources but also can't deny the sincerity of Tebow's denials -- which included giving names of guys in the room that Florio could call to confirm Tebow's story. I think that short of the guy who was alleged to have said the quote coming forward with another story, you have to trust Tebow.

By the way: What a smart move by Tebow to call PFT directly. I cannot remember an athlete's scandal-management -- even when the "scandal" is hardly a scandal -- as facile and savvy as Tebow displayed this afternoon. That's how seriously Tebow (and Team Tebow) take his reputation. Tiger Woods -- and every other athlete -- could take a lesson.

Even if it reinforces that, indeed, Tebow has never called the editor of THIS blog....

ORIGINAL POST:

I would be remiss if I didn't mention the underground Tebow story that is going around the Internet this morning, via Pro Football Talk:

Apparently, the day of the Wonderlic, Tebow and his fellow draft prospects were about to take the test and Tebow asked if there could be a moment of prayer before the test.

The response from one fellow draftee: "Shut the f--- up."

Tebow fans and the Tebow-fatigued alike should never be surprised at any forms of hostility or mockery directed at Tebow -- frankly, that's been happening online for years.

There's quite a bit of schadenfreude resulting from the quote -- although not even close to the level during the whole "Tebow crying" thing after the SEC championship game.

As with everything Tebow, it is going to get way more attention than any other player would get. And it cuts to a lot of the controversy regarding Tebow's demonstrative display of values.

It strikes me as more an example of Tebow schadenfreude than a larger issue about Tebow's style and how it might translate in a pro setting.

I have a couple of other responses:

*From Tebow's perspective -- knowing who he is -- it couldn't hurt to ask. He probably didn't foresee the level of vitriol coming back at him, but maybe he probably should have.

*Tebow would never have done it -- wrong time and place, for starters -- but I'd be curious if that player (will we find out who it was?) would say that to Tebow's face in a different setting.

What I mean by that is -- not that Tebow would ever kick someone's ass for mocking him -- Tebow could have knocked that dude the f--- out, to repeat the salty language. Anyone doubt it?

We have never really seen personally vengeful Tebow -- aside from that altogether more fun unsportsmanlike-conduct penalty in the 2008 season national title game.

I suspect there would be a whole lot of Biblical-level whooping going on. Again: Not that he would ever engage in that. He is much too disciplined.

Last thought: Not that I doubt Tebow's ability to focus, but if the story is true, is it possible that the pre-test interaction bothered him enough to knock a couple of points off his test score?

-- Dan

Tebow EA NCAA Football 2011 Deal?

The speculation -- I'd call it a presumption -- that Tim Tebow would be the cover athlete for EA's NCAA Football 2011 video game may be coming to conclusion.

Per Fowler at the Sentinel, Tebow's agent Jimmy Sexton confirmed that Tebow was doing some promotional work for EA last week. Tebow wouldn't do that unless there was something there.

Last year, in the days leading up to the Draft, EA held an event in NYC for its NCAA Football 2010 cover athletes -- along with other college stars.

Even if Tebow doesn't decide to come to New York for the Draft, if he was going to be on the cover of the EA game, he would definitely come to New York for that promotional event.

I still think he will come to New York for the event -- the context of the Draft has changed so dramatically from even a year ago; the 2nd round is its own event.

Besides: Tebow is THE star of the Draft, wherever he is taken. Even if he doesn't go in the 1st round, his draft status for the 2nd will be the biggest storyline of Thursday night/Friday.

As much as anyone, Team Tebow should realize that Tebow's case is entirely exceptional, in every way -- and that includes a 2nd-rounder/backup QB being a video-game cover star.

-- Dan


Faked Photoshop via TebowZone.com

NFL Tebow: Tony Dungy a Fan

"Somebody, I think, is going to take him in the first round. I'd be surprised if by the end of the first round somebody hasn't taken him. ... And I think it will pay off for them."

-- Tony Dungy, on Tim Tebow. I wouldn't go that far. I'd be surprised if Tebow DID go in the 1st round, although I don't disagree with Dungy about Tebow's pro potential.

(Dungy also brings up that draftniks doubted Steve Young, who didn't blossom until he was -- go figure -- in the right context: Playing for the greatest offensive mind in NFL history.)

Belichick Likes Tebow: What It Means

We already knew that Bill Belichick was a Tim Tebow fan. There was no way Belichick was NOT going to praise Tebow, when asked about him.

The Patriots coach is very close to Florida coach Urban Meyer, and had -- numerous times -- talked about how intrigued he was by Tebow, particularly in creating favorable mismatches using a mobile QB.

In fact, Belichick's praise of Tebow was a huge reason why -- for a long time (going back to September 2008) -- I was entirely convinced that the Patriots would be the team to draft him.

I also continue to think that Belichick is, by far, the best coach for Tebow in the NFL. And, for Tebow more than any other player, coaching context will matter.

Belichick is not only the most innovative head coach in the league, but he has complete job security. That is the ultimate combination to maximize the value of Tebow. In turn, Tebow -- and Meyer -- trust Belichick implicitly to maximize Tebow's talents.

Here is what Belichick had to say about Tebow, following Tebow's workout for the Patriots this weekend:

Great career, great player. I think it’s obvious that within the last six weeks, that he’s worked on his mechanics and they’ve improved, which is a credit to him. He’s very coachable and he works very hard. I’m sure that whatever he feels he needs to do, he’ll work very hard at, whatever that is. Athletically, he tested very well at the combine, which you can see on the field.

My sense of Tim Tebow is that if you asked him to play nose, he’d play nose. I think he’s that kind of kid. Whatever you ask him to do, I think he’d do.

The Patriots certainly have enough draft picks in the 2nd round to make a play for Tebow. It isn't Belichick's style to trade up, but he might have to, if he really wants to take Tebow.

I honestly think that Belichick would unleash Tebow on the league in a way that no other NFL coach could or would. It's not just using him as a QB, but anywhere. (By the way, while there's no way that Belichick pulls Brady on 4th-and-2 against the Colts, I think that if Brady was unavailable, Belichick is entirely confident he could have devised a scheme for Tebow to get those 2 yards and seal the game's result in favor of the Pats.)

Here is arguably the biggest takeaway: There is no more powerful endorsement -- at least for the media continuously re-framing Tebow's draft status -- like that of Belichick.

And even if Belichick is playing pre-draft mind-games -- and, although the NFL is all-business (and Belichick the most all-business of anyone in the league), I cannot see him abusing his close relationship with Urban Meyer by using Tebow to angle for other, non-Tebow draft dealing -- his comments will give Tebow's draft stock a huge boost.

-- Dan

Would Tebow Really Skip NFL Draft?

There is a new rumor that Tim Tebow might not go to New York for the NFL Draft. The most popular and intriguing player in the Draft might not be at the Draft?

I suppose it is possible that Tebow doesn't want to be stuck in the green room into the 2nd round. But if that is his motivation, I think he is mis-reading the new context.

The new format of the Draft -- without precedent, in any sport -- means that even if he doesn't go in the 1st round, he can be the star of the 2nd round, held on Friday.

If he isn't taken, Tebow's draft status will be THE storyline following the 1st round -- not Sam Bradford going No. 1, not anything else.

And the clamor around who might take him in the 2nd round -- how high he might go -- will be the topic people want to talk about right up until he is drafted.

By attending -- even if he lays low on Thursday and doesn't actually sit in the green room -- he will benefit from all of that.

Let's offer two alternatives:

(1) Skip the 1st round, banking on the idea that he won't be selected in the 1st, but fly up to NYC for the 2nd round; everyone wants to see it.

(2) Show up for the 1st round, but skip the green room and instead crash the ESPN broadcast table, asking for a seat. Then proceed to talk about all the teams and draftees.

But there are plenty of options related to attending, besides this knee-jerk idea from the experts that Tebow will be sitting glumly in the green room, looking like a loser.

Everything about Tebow's pre-NFL career -- all three months of it -- has been marked by insane amounts of interest. Why would that change on Draft Days?

-- Dan

NFL Tebow: Peter King Agrees With Me

Does Peter King read TimTeblog.com? Oh, I'm quite sure he doesn't (even though I used to edit his "Monday Morning QB" column back in the day for SI.com), but King has an item about Tebow in his MMQB column today that meshes entirely with what I've been writing here for months:

The NFL Draft's a month from today, and this weekend has proven one thing to me: Tim Tebow's going higher than we thought he would.

Even after Tebow performed with much-improved mechanics in his on-campus pro day Wednesday in Gainesville, I thought it might be good enough to get him into the second round, but who wanted to spend a second-rounder in a very deep draft on a guy you might need to redshirt for two years?

But something interesting has happened this weekend. Most agents are happy to tell you where their client will be visiting before the draft and which teams he'll be working out for. A top player is usually happy to talk about a conversation he had with Bill Belichick or advice he got on how to throw the ball from Mike Holmgren. Not Tebow's agent Jimmy Sexton over the weekend. And not Tebow. Both said they'd like to keep the opinions from the teams to themselves, and they'd like to keep which teams are interested to themselves, partly because the teams had requested as much.

Of course, it's an open secret that Washington coach Mike Shanahan worked out Tebow in Gainesville on Saturday, and that Cleveland, Seattle, New England and Buffalo will either do so or already have. But you won't get that from the Tebow camp.

What this tells me is teams interested in Tebow don't want the other teams interested in Tebow to know how interested they are. If, for instance, the Seahawks want to add Tebow to the Matt Hasselbeck/Charlie Whitehurst stable and they hold the 60th overall pick in Round 2 (which I now think will be too low for Tebow), they don't want to telegraph their interest in case they plan to try to move into the 40s to get him. With New England having three picks in the second round (44, 47, 53), the Patriots could be in prime position to take Tebow and groom him as either a long-term replacement for Tom Brady (I don't buy that, with Brady wanting to play eight more years) or as a durable, versatile offensive weapon who could play multiple positions.

I now think Tebow's going in the 28 to 45 range, to a team willing to be patient with him at quarterback and maybe to allow him to help the team in other ways immediately. That's how much he helped himself with the aggressive remaking of his throwing motion at his workout Wednesday.

"I got a lot of slack out of my motion,'' he told me Sunday night. "I'm holding it higher, releasing it quicker. It's kind of like in golf, not going back as far on your backswing. I'm not going back as far with my arm, but I don't feel I'm losing any power or any accuracy when I throw.''

I asked Tebow if he thought he'd be a first-round pick, and there was a long pause.

"Heh-heh,'' he said, chuckling a little uncomfortably. "Not sure. Good question. I believe with all my heart that I'll be an NFL quarterback, but who takes me, and where, I don't know.''

Unpack that:

*28-45 range: The end of the 1st round? Wow, even I won't be that bullish. But I'll also be a little more bullish than thinking Tebow will be around halfway through the 2nd.

*Teams keeping their workouts on the down low. I've noticed this. And you don't hear about it from either side -- the individual teams or Team Tebow.

*Tebow will go much higher than conventional wisdom dictated a month ago -- or even a week ago. I have been saying this for months. His stock is only going to keep going up.

A little less than 5 weeks until the draft, and Tebow's status will continue to be THE storyline.

-- Dan

NFL Tebow: Get The Facts

There have been plenty of unflattering things written about Tim Tebow's NFL potential -- some opinion, some reporting other peoples' opinions.

What you don't see too often is a full-throated defense of Tebow's NFL potential. Well, now you've got one, from one of the most trusted sources in NFL analysis: Cold Hard Football Facts.

I had been waiting for CHFF to dig into the Tebow debate, and they deliver with a serious argument that not only will Tebow do fine, but that he is undervalued.

But Tebow didn't just put up big stats ... he put up supremely efficient stats. He was more accurate, and produced more big passing plays, and was more likely to put the ball in the end zone, and more likely to keep it out of the hands of opposing defenders, than any of the recent collection of No. 1 passing phenoms to come out of the SEC.

Tebow was, by any measure, a better player, a better quarterback and, yes, a better passer than any of these No. 1 picks.

Read the whole thing here -- then read their sidebar on why his mechanics thing is overrated as an issue of concern.

Meanwhile, I did not know that Charlie Casserly said that Tebow would be drafted no earlier than the 4th round. Not "He's a 4th-round talent," which is how McShay and Kiper feel about it.

But even those two draftniks have come around to the idea that Tebow's draft stock is way ahead of the less bullish analysis that is out there from scouts.

I stand by my latest projection: Top of the 2nd round. Perhaps not the first pick of the 2nd round, but no more than 10 picks into the 2nd round.