On Saturday, Tim Tebow wore Psalms 23:1 on his eye-black:
The Lord is my shepherd; I shall not want.
As I was in Las Vegas, I should have recognized "23" as an omen of Florida's point total.
Monday, October 19, 2009
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Tebow, Florida Escape With Homecoming Win
I'm about to get on a red-eye flight from Las Vegas back to New York, but I'm still filled with adrenaline from Florida's win over Arkansas. Or should that be "near-loss to Arkansas?"
Let's be clear: Championship teams win games -- even ones they aren't supposed to. They find a way to win, where others stumble.
That was Florida today. Frankly, that was Tim Tebow today. The turnovers weren't pretty. The early game plan for him wasn't effective.
But when it mattered, Tebow stepped up: With that huge TD toss to Thompson. With those scrambles. With those key completions on the final drive to set up the game-winning FG.
This team is now the epitome of that "game manager" idea from last week: They do what it takes to win. It's not pretty. But it works.
More later.
Let's be clear: Championship teams win games -- even ones they aren't supposed to. They find a way to win, where others stumble.
That was Florida today. Frankly, that was Tim Tebow today. The turnovers weren't pretty. The early game plan for him wasn't effective.
But when it mattered, Tebow stepped up: With that huge TD toss to Thompson. With those scrambles. With those key completions on the final drive to set up the game-winning FG.
This team is now the epitome of that "game manager" idea from last week: They do what it takes to win. It's not pretty. But it works.
More later.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Tim Tebow's Final Homecoming
"Let's do it again. I'm coming back!"
That was Tim Tebow, declaring his intention to return for his senior season at Florida.
He did it because he liked his platform as college football's most popular player of all time. He did it because he wanted to lead Florida to its first undefeated season ever. He did it because he wanted to work on his game for the NFL.
And he did it because he loves college, loves his life at college and loves the University of Florida.
That makes Tebow's final homecoming game bittersweet. It's not quite the same as his final game at The Swamp -- "homecoming" has always been a little more about the formal pomp.
But it is one more milestone in Tebow's final year at Florida.
As a huge Florida fan himself, Tebow has a natural affection for traditions like homecoming -- I don't think the moment will be lost on him, even if he can't wander among the tailgates like he will in future seasons, as a returning alum.
It's not like Tebow needs a whole lot of extra motivation, but wherever he finds it -- in dispelling the claim that he is now a "game manager" QB (even if Tebow himself supports the theory), in reclaiming his pre-concussion focus -- it will carry the subtext that this is his final homecoming game as a student.
I'm sure the University Alumni Association has its own countdown until Tebow becomes a donation-making graduate.
Arkansas has been a perky team this season -- its offense, led by Ryan Mallett, is very good (although they have never seen a D like this before). But its defense is not very good, and Tebow and Co. should find plenty of opportunities to dazzle the crowd.
That was Tim Tebow, declaring his intention to return for his senior season at Florida.
He did it because he liked his platform as college football's most popular player of all time. He did it because he wanted to lead Florida to its first undefeated season ever. He did it because he wanted to work on his game for the NFL.
And he did it because he loves college, loves his life at college and loves the University of Florida.
That makes Tebow's final homecoming game bittersweet. It's not quite the same as his final game at The Swamp -- "homecoming" has always been a little more about the formal pomp.
But it is one more milestone in Tebow's final year at Florida.
As a huge Florida fan himself, Tebow has a natural affection for traditions like homecoming -- I don't think the moment will be lost on him, even if he can't wander among the tailgates like he will in future seasons, as a returning alum.
It's not like Tebow needs a whole lot of extra motivation, but wherever he finds it -- in dispelling the claim that he is now a "game manager" QB (even if Tebow himself supports the theory), in reclaiming his pre-concussion focus -- it will carry the subtext that this is his final homecoming game as a student.
I'm sure the University Alumni Association has its own countdown until Tebow becomes a donation-making graduate.
Arkansas has been a perky team this season -- its offense, led by Ryan Mallett, is very good (although they have never seen a D like this before). But its defense is not very good, and Tebow and Co. should find plenty of opportunities to dazzle the crowd.
Would You Bet On Tim Tebow?
Forgive the sparse posting yesterday. I have been in Las Vegas for a conference -- my first time here, actually.
I just wandered past my hotel's sports book, where Florida is a 25-point favorite over Arkansas, and it begs the question: Would I bet on Tim Tebow?
Not existentially -- but with my cold, hard cash?
The answer was surprisingly easy: No way.
It's actually a no-win proposition: If I bet on Tebow and think the Gators will win by more than 25 points, I may find myself disappointed with a 20-point win. If I bet on Arkansas to lose by less than 25 points, I may find myself disappointed with a 30-point rout.
No judgments, but I can't imagine how anyone bets on their own team, unless they are doing it straight up. (But at a 25-point spread, a straight-up bet would net me pennies for my dollar.)
At least for me, better to leave it be and not mix my fandom with my urge to correctly predict college football games more nationally.
I just wandered past my hotel's sports book, where Florida is a 25-point favorite over Arkansas, and it begs the question: Would I bet on Tim Tebow?
Not existentially -- but with my cold, hard cash?
The answer was surprisingly easy: No way.
It's actually a no-win proposition: If I bet on Tebow and think the Gators will win by more than 25 points, I may find myself disappointed with a 20-point win. If I bet on Arkansas to lose by less than 25 points, I may find myself disappointed with a 30-point rout.
No judgments, but I can't imagine how anyone bets on their own team, unless they are doing it straight up. (But at a 25-point spread, a straight-up bet would net me pennies for my dollar.)
At least for me, better to leave it be and not mix my fandom with my urge to correctly predict college football games more nationally.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Tebow's Religious Critics Miss The Mark
Tim Tebow's public religious expression has hit the radar this week.
USA Today religion columnist Tom Krattenmaker put up a column on Monday questioning the very visible way Tebow expresses his religion. Fort Myers News-Press columnist Sam Cook took that column and ran with it -- fairly far off the deep end.
Let's start with this: Both columnists are entitled to their opinion. And, as someone Jewish and with a predominantly secular view of the world, I think I have an appropriately skeptical filter by which to evaluate Tebow.
And what I would say is this: I have scrutinized and analyzed Tebow's expression of his faith about as intensely as anyone, and both critics are plagued by a shallow understanding of how Tebow expresses his faith -- at least as it happens on the football field.
Maybe this is just great expectations management -- and that would be in line with Tebow's interest in harnessing the power of influence -- but, if anything, Tebow is remarkable for the selectivity he displays in showcasing his values on the field.
Start with this: Faith is core to who Tebow is. Whatever one's core belief system or priority might be, it will be next-to-impossible to remove it entirely from the rest of your life. Let's not make judgments about what that priority might be.
When you watch Tebow play football, you get one expression of that faith: The eye-black. And, frankly, if you were interested in expressing yourself and whatever you did to express yourself instantly became the No. 1 most-searched term on Google, you'd do it, too.
And I do see it as expression: I think that Tebow wears the eye-black as an expression of his faith -- if folks want to see what that expression means, that's their choice. It's not like he's forcing you to go Google "Phil 4:13."
After the eye-black? Well... that's about it.
Want to know what Tim Tebow does first when he throws a touchdown? He jumps into the arms of his linemen. Then he might do the Gator Chomp. What you don't see him doing -- at least regularly -- is the "clasped-hands" thing that Danny Wuerffel used to do.
Have you ever listened to Tim Tebow give a post-game interview on the field? He doesn't start with "First, I'd like to thank my lord and savior, Jesus Christ." Actually, he starts with something far more banal: "That was a great win." And "My teammates played great." And "I feel so good for all of Gator Nation."
Does he end the interview with "God bless?" Yes. I'd hardly call that in-your-face proselytizing.
There is a very important reason -- I'd even go so far as to call it a self-serving reason -- that Tebow, in fact, does NOT put his religion in the face of fans, as his critics have misleadingly characterized:
As a student of influence, Tebow knows that if he was heavy-handed about it, he would be marginalized by the masses, including the mass media. If he was in-your-face about it, his efforts would have the opposite effect -- you'd be turned off to him... and his message.
Compare the way Tim Tebow talks to the media with the way Bob Tebow talks to the media. Bob is much more vocal in his proselytizing -- that may be a reason why you don't see him being interviewed on TV all that often. But Bob isn't a public figure -- he is a very dedicated missionary.
Tim is obviously dedicated, too, but is a public figure. As such, Tim has a much keener and intuitive understanding of influence and message management.
Tebow may have core beliefs about the salvation of the soul, but he often talks of far more earthly goals: Getting people to live in more socially mindful ways -- effectively, it's nothing more dogmatic than the Golden Rule.
Tebow knows that there are plenty of people out there -- the vast majority of people -- who have no interest in being saved. So his goal with them is to simply inspire them to be better people, better contributors to society. That's why he helped raise money for a pediatric unit of Florida's Shands hospital. That's entirely non-secular, and something everyone can rally around.
In that way, Tebow is actually quite the humanist. Is he a secular humanist? No. But there should be room for both kinds, right?
I have no idea how Tim Tebow feels about me and my soul. I can suspect that he thinks that because I don't believe in Jesus Christ, I'm damned. He probably has genuine concern for me about that, even if I myself am not concerned.
But I can also suspect that if he and I sat down to chat, his mission would not be to convert me. He knows that's not what I'm interested in -- and that, if pressed, I would tune him out. Instead, I would imagine he would ask me how I could use my media platform to help raise money for the hospital -- or the charity of my choice, frankly.
In fact, if I ever get the chance to talk with Tebow -- for this blog, or otherwise -- it is precisely this topic of how he thinks about the public consumption of his values that I'd find most fascinating to talk about.
It is really easy -- too easy, actually -- for critics to focus on the very publicized display (even distraction) of the eye-black and leap to the conclusion that Tim Tebow is somehow inflicting his religious values on the rest of us in a way that reinforces that religion has no place in sports.
I think it's more interesting -- and accurate -- to see the bigger picture: What Tebow ISN'T doing, as much as what he is doing.
For more on this, please see my post from August 31st about Tebow's Christianity...and his Humanism.
USA Today religion columnist Tom Krattenmaker put up a column on Monday questioning the very visible way Tebow expresses his religion. Fort Myers News-Press columnist Sam Cook took that column and ran with it -- fairly far off the deep end.
Let's start with this: Both columnists are entitled to their opinion. And, as someone Jewish and with a predominantly secular view of the world, I think I have an appropriately skeptical filter by which to evaluate Tebow.
And what I would say is this: I have scrutinized and analyzed Tebow's expression of his faith about as intensely as anyone, and both critics are plagued by a shallow understanding of how Tebow expresses his faith -- at least as it happens on the football field.
Maybe this is just great expectations management -- and that would be in line with Tebow's interest in harnessing the power of influence -- but, if anything, Tebow is remarkable for the selectivity he displays in showcasing his values on the field.
Start with this: Faith is core to who Tebow is. Whatever one's core belief system or priority might be, it will be next-to-impossible to remove it entirely from the rest of your life. Let's not make judgments about what that priority might be.
When you watch Tebow play football, you get one expression of that faith: The eye-black. And, frankly, if you were interested in expressing yourself and whatever you did to express yourself instantly became the No. 1 most-searched term on Google, you'd do it, too.
And I do see it as expression: I think that Tebow wears the eye-black as an expression of his faith -- if folks want to see what that expression means, that's their choice. It's not like he's forcing you to go Google "Phil 4:13."
After the eye-black? Well... that's about it.
Want to know what Tim Tebow does first when he throws a touchdown? He jumps into the arms of his linemen. Then he might do the Gator Chomp. What you don't see him doing -- at least regularly -- is the "clasped-hands" thing that Danny Wuerffel used to do.
Have you ever listened to Tim Tebow give a post-game interview on the field? He doesn't start with "First, I'd like to thank my lord and savior, Jesus Christ." Actually, he starts with something far more banal: "That was a great win." And "My teammates played great." And "I feel so good for all of Gator Nation."
Does he end the interview with "God bless?" Yes. I'd hardly call that in-your-face proselytizing.
There is a very important reason -- I'd even go so far as to call it a self-serving reason -- that Tebow, in fact, does NOT put his religion in the face of fans, as his critics have misleadingly characterized:
As a student of influence, Tebow knows that if he was heavy-handed about it, he would be marginalized by the masses, including the mass media. If he was in-your-face about it, his efforts would have the opposite effect -- you'd be turned off to him... and his message.
Compare the way Tim Tebow talks to the media with the way Bob Tebow talks to the media. Bob is much more vocal in his proselytizing -- that may be a reason why you don't see him being interviewed on TV all that often. But Bob isn't a public figure -- he is a very dedicated missionary.
Tim is obviously dedicated, too, but is a public figure. As such, Tim has a much keener and intuitive understanding of influence and message management.
Tebow may have core beliefs about the salvation of the soul, but he often talks of far more earthly goals: Getting people to live in more socially mindful ways -- effectively, it's nothing more dogmatic than the Golden Rule.
Tebow knows that there are plenty of people out there -- the vast majority of people -- who have no interest in being saved. So his goal with them is to simply inspire them to be better people, better contributors to society. That's why he helped raise money for a pediatric unit of Florida's Shands hospital. That's entirely non-secular, and something everyone can rally around.
In that way, Tebow is actually quite the humanist. Is he a secular humanist? No. But there should be room for both kinds, right?
I have no idea how Tim Tebow feels about me and my soul. I can suspect that he thinks that because I don't believe in Jesus Christ, I'm damned. He probably has genuine concern for me about that, even if I myself am not concerned.
But I can also suspect that if he and I sat down to chat, his mission would not be to convert me. He knows that's not what I'm interested in -- and that, if pressed, I would tune him out. Instead, I would imagine he would ask me how I could use my media platform to help raise money for the hospital -- or the charity of my choice, frankly.
In fact, if I ever get the chance to talk with Tebow -- for this blog, or otherwise -- it is precisely this topic of how he thinks about the public consumption of his values that I'd find most fascinating to talk about.
It is really easy -- too easy, actually -- for critics to focus on the very publicized display (even distraction) of the eye-black and leap to the conclusion that Tim Tebow is somehow inflicting his religious values on the rest of us in a way that reinforces that religion has no place in sports.
I think it's more interesting -- and accurate -- to see the bigger picture: What Tebow ISN'T doing, as much as what he is doing.
For more on this, please see my post from August 31st about Tebow's Christianity...and his Humanism.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Tim Tebow vs. Ryan Mallett
Who is the 2nd-best QB in the SEC? With Jevan Snead's collapse -- and Arkansas' break-out passing game -- it has to be Razorbacks QB Ryan Mallett.
Let's go one step further: I think that Mallett will be judged the better NFL prospect -- perhaps among the best NFL QB prospects in college football. (Yes, including Sam Bradford.) Mallett is like a taller Matt Stafford with an even better arm.
But Mallett is no Tebow -- don't let it escape you that in the Sporting News' latest NFL Mock Draft, they have Tim Tebow going 9th overall (within TimTeblog.com projections of Tebow going in the Top 10). Good news: 2nd QB taken. Bad news: To the Raiders. Ugh.
Remember when everyone thought Louisville's Brian Brohm was the best NFL prospect in college football -- then he came back to school instead of going into the draft and his stock collapsed.
Mallett -- coached by Brohm's old mentor, Bobby Petrino -- will see that, see what happened to Sam Bradford this season, see how much money Matt Stafford made and skedaddle into the NFL after this season (as a redshirt sophomore, he is eligible).
Anyway, all that adds up to an intriguing match-up between Mallett and Tebow this weekend. Of course, Tebow gets to play against Arkansas' soft defense, and Mallett will be challenged by what could turn out to be the best defense in the history of college football. Good luck with that.
With 48 hours until Florida-Arkansas, check out Jeremy Fowler's insightful tale-of-the-tape between Tebow and Mallett.
I'm in Las Vegas -- for the first time ever, actually -- for a sports-blog conference. Don't think I won't be talking up TimTeblog.com and you terrific readers as the future of sports media.
More a little later.
Let's go one step further: I think that Mallett will be judged the better NFL prospect -- perhaps among the best NFL QB prospects in college football. (Yes, including Sam Bradford.) Mallett is like a taller Matt Stafford with an even better arm.
But Mallett is no Tebow -- don't let it escape you that in the Sporting News' latest NFL Mock Draft, they have Tim Tebow going 9th overall (within TimTeblog.com projections of Tebow going in the Top 10). Good news: 2nd QB taken. Bad news: To the Raiders. Ugh.
Remember when everyone thought Louisville's Brian Brohm was the best NFL prospect in college football -- then he came back to school instead of going into the draft and his stock collapsed.
Mallett -- coached by Brohm's old mentor, Bobby Petrino -- will see that, see what happened to Sam Bradford this season, see how much money Matt Stafford made and skedaddle into the NFL after this season (as a redshirt sophomore, he is eligible).
Anyway, all that adds up to an intriguing match-up between Mallett and Tebow this weekend. Of course, Tebow gets to play against Arkansas' soft defense, and Mallett will be challenged by what could turn out to be the best defense in the history of college football. Good luck with that.
With 48 hours until Florida-Arkansas, check out Jeremy Fowler's insightful tale-of-the-tape between Tebow and Mallett.
I'm in Las Vegas -- for the first time ever, actually -- for a sports-blog conference. Don't think I won't be talking up TimTeblog.com and you terrific readers as the future of sports media.
More a little later.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Tim Tebow On Cover Of Sports Illustrated
This week's Sports Illustrated cover was presumably an easy choice: Tim Tebow versus LSU:
Tebow Thought of Day: Game Manager, Cont'd
With all this talk about Tebow-as-"game-managing" QB and the emphasis on Florida's punishing ground game to go with its dominating D, it looks like Tebow will come a lot closer to resembling Nebraska's legendary Tommie Frazier this year than we would have thought in the preseason.
Frazier, too, led a punishing, dominating running game (with, by the way, an effective and underrated passing TD rate: 18 TDs, 6 INTs... to go with his 16 rushing TDs and 7.1 ypc average) combined with the best defense in the country. Sound familiar?
And consider that -- relying on the steamroller run game, a magnificently skilled "game-manager" QB and a dominating D -- those Frazier Nebraska teams of '94 and '95 are considered the greatest of all time. (At least, for now.)
Frazier, too, led a punishing, dominating running game (with, by the way, an effective and underrated passing TD rate: 18 TDs, 6 INTs... to go with his 16 rushing TDs and 7.1 ypc average) combined with the best defense in the country. Sound familiar?
And consider that -- relying on the steamroller run game, a magnificently skilled "game-manager" QB and a dominating D -- those Frazier Nebraska teams of '94 and '95 are considered the greatest of all time. (At least, for now.)
Tebow Recognizes Value of Game Manager
"We just have to manage. A big part of my job is to manage, put the offense in good situations, get first downs and be very conservative with turnovers. We'll be putting our team in a position to win."
-- Tim Tebow, on the conversion of Florida's offense from "good gosh-amighty" to "good enough." This quote speaks to the heart of my analysis from yesterday about Tebow as "game manager."
More from Tebow on this subject -- essentially supporting my thesis that Urban Meyer's "Plan to Win" doesn't necessarily involve huge performances from Tebow:
"This team is a little different than in the past. We know it's OK if we drive the ball down [then punt] and put our defense in good position. Not many teams are going to drive 90 yards against our defense. We want to play great defense, have zero turnovers, score in the red zone and win the kicking game. That's our plan to win. If we do that, we're going to win a lot of games."
Now, let's be clear: That doesn't mean that Tebow can't or won't have a big role -- it just means he will pick his spots: A drive-sustaining first-down plunge here, a timely pitch to Demps for a red-zone TD there... but, more than anything, simply chewing up the clock, grinding down defenses and limiting turnovers.
Heisman Watch: Tebow Still Leads Poll
I can't remember the last time a "game manager" QB won the Heisman -- but Tim Tebow is going to make a run at it. Tebow still leads the HeismanPundit.com straw poll of voters -- obviously, his performance against LSU defied statistics and was more about the kind of mythology that Heisman voters seem to like.
That said: Still feels like Colt McCoy, No. 2 this week with a slim lead over -- sigh -- obligatory Notre Dame QB [Jimmy Clausen], is the guy to beat. McCoy's performance against Oklahoma on Saturday could be make-or-break.
(Of note: Nebraska DT Ndamkong Suh entered the Top 5, with two 1st-place votes. This is no Charles Woodson situation, where a defensive player goes both ways to curry favor with Heisman voters; Suh is simply dominant on the D-line. I could see Tebow -- as a Heisman voter himself -- appreciating the low-hype, high-bulldozing value of Suh as "best player in college football.")
If stats do matter -- and I would argue that Heisman voters would have to nullify big stats as a requirement if they are to keep rationalizing Tebow as the No. 1 contender -- this weekend should help Tebow. Despite his new role as "game manager" QB, Tebow should have a much bigger day offensively against Arkansas' porous defense than he did against LSU.
That said: Still feels like Colt McCoy, No. 2 this week with a slim lead over -- sigh -- obligatory Notre Dame QB [Jimmy Clausen], is the guy to beat. McCoy's performance against Oklahoma on Saturday could be make-or-break.
(Of note: Nebraska DT Ndamkong Suh entered the Top 5, with two 1st-place votes. This is no Charles Woodson situation, where a defensive player goes both ways to curry favor with Heisman voters; Suh is simply dominant on the D-line. I could see Tebow -- as a Heisman voter himself -- appreciating the low-hype, high-bulldozing value of Suh as "best player in college football.")
If stats do matter -- and I would argue that Heisman voters would have to nullify big stats as a requirement if they are to keep rationalizing Tebow as the No. 1 contender -- this weekend should help Tebow. Despite his new role as "game manager" QB, Tebow should have a much bigger day offensively against Arkansas' porous defense than he did against LSU.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Tim Tebow As The New Trent Dilfer
Let's start with this: I am thrilled to have the Tebow post-concussion stuff behind us. We can finally concentrate on the next opponent, the rest of the season, etc.
What I found most interesting about the game on Saturday night was Tebow's tentativeness -- with good reason, mind you.
But the net result was that he was a different quarterback. Out was "Tebow Smash"; in was Tebow as... game manager?
My Yahoo column today about Tebow dives right into this modified version of Tebow. They didn't take the wraps off -- they put the wraps on.
And that's not a bad thing -- and I'm not just talking about the attempt to keep him healthy.
"Game manager" QBs get a bad rap, despite the success of archetypes like Trent Dilfer for the Ravens (2000), Craig Krenzel for Ohio State (2002) and even Chris Leak in 2006.
The common thread: They were all championship-winning QBs, although they had to subordinate their individual skills to their team's core strengths.
In Florida's case in 2009, that's the defense. That's the special teams. That's the running backs. That's Aaron Hernandez. Tebow is a strength, too -- just not the exclusive one.
And so we see the Tebow we got in Baton Rouge -- limited, safe passes (for the most part). Limited, safe runs (for the most part). And, ultimately, success.
Tebow was what I had predicted John Brantley would be if he had started: Good enough.
To his credit -- and probably the only way he would have gotten in or stayed in the game -- Tebow modified his game to match the opponent and his teammates' strengths.
If that makes him Trent Dilfer 2.0, so be it. Tebow still has the potential to pop off the 9-yard scramble, the 2-yard surge or the wobbly toss to a streaking WR off a play-action to himself.
I noted this in the column: Tebow in 2006 was a phenom. Tebow in 2007 was an individually brilliant stat-stuffer. Tebow in 2008 was a champion and a Ferrari driver.
The only thing left for Tebow to accomplish in college was to modify himself into the "game manager" who simply wins games. And, in Tebow's case, wins titles.
Will Arkansas' defense allow for "Tebow to be Tebow" in a way that LSU's defense -- and the proximity to the concussion -- didn't? Probably.
But there was nothing on Saturday night to indicate that if Tebow DOES play more within himself -- more "smart" (his words) -- the Gators can't keep rolling along.
What I found most interesting about the game on Saturday night was Tebow's tentativeness -- with good reason, mind you.
But the net result was that he was a different quarterback. Out was "Tebow Smash"; in was Tebow as... game manager?
My Yahoo column today about Tebow dives right into this modified version of Tebow. They didn't take the wraps off -- they put the wraps on.
And that's not a bad thing -- and I'm not just talking about the attempt to keep him healthy.
"Game manager" QBs get a bad rap, despite the success of archetypes like Trent Dilfer for the Ravens (2000), Craig Krenzel for Ohio State (2002) and even Chris Leak in 2006.
The common thread: They were all championship-winning QBs, although they had to subordinate their individual skills to their team's core strengths.
In Florida's case in 2009, that's the defense. That's the special teams. That's the running backs. That's Aaron Hernandez. Tebow is a strength, too -- just not the exclusive one.
And so we see the Tebow we got in Baton Rouge -- limited, safe passes (for the most part). Limited, safe runs (for the most part). And, ultimately, success.
Tebow was what I had predicted John Brantley would be if he had started: Good enough.
To his credit -- and probably the only way he would have gotten in or stayed in the game -- Tebow modified his game to match the opponent and his teammates' strengths.
If that makes him Trent Dilfer 2.0, so be it. Tebow still has the potential to pop off the 9-yard scramble, the 2-yard surge or the wobbly toss to a streaking WR off a play-action to himself.
I noted this in the column: Tebow in 2006 was a phenom. Tebow in 2007 was an individually brilliant stat-stuffer. Tebow in 2008 was a champion and a Ferrari driver.
The only thing left for Tebow to accomplish in college was to modify himself into the "game manager" who simply wins games. And, in Tebow's case, wins titles.
Will Arkansas' defense allow for "Tebow to be Tebow" in a way that LSU's defense -- and the proximity to the concussion -- didn't? Probably.
But there was nothing on Saturday night to indicate that if Tebow DOES play more within himself -- more "smart" (his words) -- the Gators can't keep rolling along.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Tebow Quote of the Day: Steve Young
"He was also encouraging me not to push it and different things that would help, as far as sleeping, just resting your mind, doing things, not pushing it. Something big he said, what I do is you always want to go run a sprint, see how it feels. Well, then you’re taking a little step back. He said, ‘Just take time off, and then when they say do your tests, then you’re OK. Don’t keep testing yourself.’ And that was something, I’m kind of a competitor, so I like to do that. But just let yourself rest and you’ll be back soon enough."
-- Tim Tebow, today discussing the impact of conversations with Steve Young last week. The No. 1 obstacle for Tebow to overcome against LSU was going to be his own default setting to "push it." If he can harness that appropriately, he may not be the same "Tebow Smash!" as before the concussion, but he will probably be a more effective and complete quarterback.
-- Tim Tebow, today discussing the impact of conversations with Steve Young last week. The No. 1 obstacle for Tebow to overcome against LSU was going to be his own default setting to "push it." If he can harness that appropriately, he may not be the same "Tebow Smash!" as before the concussion, but he will probably be a more effective and complete quarterback.
Tebow Quote of the Day: The Plane Ride
"I think God kept me healthy on that flight, because most of the time, I would have gotten sick on that plane ride. I was sitting on the plane, holding on the whole time, trying not to get sick. I was very happy and thankful that I didn't."
-- Tim Tebow, about the Gators' turbulent plane ride to Baton Rouge, which layers in another chapter to Tebow mythology. (Presumably, if he had gotten sick on the plane -- even if it was from the turbulence, not post-concussion symptoms -- the docs probably would have made him sit.)
-- Tim Tebow, about the Gators' turbulent plane ride to Baton Rouge, which layers in another chapter to Tebow mythology. (Presumably, if he had gotten sick on the plane -- even if it was from the turbulence, not post-concussion symptoms -- the docs probably would have made him sit.)
Tebow vs. LSU Post-Script: Good Enough
I agree with Yahoo's Matt Hinton: It is disingenuous to suggest that Tim Tebow was "superhuman" against LSU -- that it was Tebow's efforts that carried Florida to the win.
Was it impressive (even thrilling) to see Tebow take the field -- at all -- just two weeks after his concussion? Absolutely.
But as long as Florida's defense was shutting down LSU -- limiting them to 3 points and effectively zero offense -- it seems wild-eyed to suggest that, say, John Brantley couldn't have led Florida's offense to the more than 3 points necessary to win the game.
I'm with Urban Meyer: There was a bit of "courageous" in Tebow for playing the entire game -- even after a (justifiably) tentative start, making a few key plays himself in the 2nd half.
But let's not confuse Tebow's performance with WHY Florida win: It was the defense, which is not just the best in the country this season, but sizes up as among the best of all time.
Tim Tebow doesn't have to be Superman -- not with this defense.
At least for now, that's probably for the best.
Was it impressive (even thrilling) to see Tebow take the field -- at all -- just two weeks after his concussion? Absolutely.
But as long as Florida's defense was shutting down LSU -- limiting them to 3 points and effectively zero offense -- it seems wild-eyed to suggest that, say, John Brantley couldn't have led Florida's offense to the more than 3 points necessary to win the game.
I'm with Urban Meyer: There was a bit of "courageous" in Tebow for playing the entire game -- even after a (justifiably) tentative start, making a few key plays himself in the 2nd half.
But let's not confuse Tebow's performance with WHY Florida win: It was the defense, which is not just the best in the country this season, but sizes up as among the best of all time.
Tim Tebow doesn't have to be Superman -- not with this defense.
At least for now, that's probably for the best.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Tebow Is Back: Conservative Approach Wins
In the end, Florida did exactly what I predicted they could and would do:
They beat LSU at LSU without Tim Tebow.
Now, obviously, Tim Tebow played (thrillingly) -- but it's not like he was TIM TEBOW, otherworldly greatest-player-of-all-time QB.
He was Tim Tebow, game-manager. He threw just 16 passes, with just one TD. He had 17 carries and averaged barely more than 2 yards per carry, with most of those 38 yards on a few key carries.
Oh, it was good enough -- more than enough, actually.
Why? For the same reasons I thought Florida would win the game with John Brantley at QB: Defense. Special Teams. Creating LSU turnovers and limiting their own. Red zone efficiency. Urban Meyer's "Plan to Win."
Meyer: "Obviously, Tim came out and played his heart out. Our offensive line did a good job of protecting him for the most part. We were somewhat conservative. So much of that game plan depends on how your defense is playing and special teams. Those two phases were tremendous. This is a great win."
It was a great win -- instantly, one of the Top 5 wins of the Tebow Era. Yes, because of the context of what the win was -- but also because of what the win was NOT. It was not "classic" Tebow, in that he was dominating. It was classic Tebow in that he did whatever was necessary to help Florida win the game -- even subordinating his style to fit the extreme situation.
"I'm not going to go out there and play tentative and scared. That's not me," Tebow said. "I did try to play smart."
The gameplan was so interesting in the first half -- it was a tentative offense, run by a seemingly tentative Tebow. And it worked -- thanks to the running backs. (Has Emmanuel Moody had a better game for Florida?)
In the second half, we saw a glimpse of -- as Meyer put it last week -- "Tim being Tim." Taking the ball himself and plunging up the middle. But this more conservative Tebow was still very effective, in his own non-spectacular way.
Coming into the game, I was EXTREMELY nervous about the prospects of Tebow playing -- I was concerned that he would exacerbate the concussion. And, yes, throughout the game, when they called his number, I cringed.
(Tebow had no such problems: "Actually I liked it. First time I got hit, everything felt good, I was like all right. I'm ready to go.")
And while I thought that Florida could beat LSU without Tebow playing like his 2007 or 2008 versions, I was thrilled to see him in there -- thrilled to see him playing within himself (even a temporarily conservative "himself") and within Florida's protectionist game plan.
And between Tebow, the running backs, Aaron Hernandez, the special teams (besides Sturgis' FG miss) and -- of course, more than anything -- the otherworldly defense, which might not just be the best in the country this season but among the best of all time, Florida is back on track as the team to beat.
Tebow is back. Not necessarily the old Tebow. But how could you not like this new Tebow?
They beat LSU at LSU without Tim Tebow.
Now, obviously, Tim Tebow played (thrillingly) -- but it's not like he was TIM TEBOW, otherworldly greatest-player-of-all-time QB.
He was Tim Tebow, game-manager. He threw just 16 passes, with just one TD. He had 17 carries and averaged barely more than 2 yards per carry, with most of those 38 yards on a few key carries.
Oh, it was good enough -- more than enough, actually.
Why? For the same reasons I thought Florida would win the game with John Brantley at QB: Defense. Special Teams. Creating LSU turnovers and limiting their own. Red zone efficiency. Urban Meyer's "Plan to Win."
Meyer: "Obviously, Tim came out and played his heart out. Our offensive line did a good job of protecting him for the most part. We were somewhat conservative. So much of that game plan depends on how your defense is playing and special teams. Those two phases were tremendous. This is a great win."
It was a great win -- instantly, one of the Top 5 wins of the Tebow Era. Yes, because of the context of what the win was -- but also because of what the win was NOT. It was not "classic" Tebow, in that he was dominating. It was classic Tebow in that he did whatever was necessary to help Florida win the game -- even subordinating his style to fit the extreme situation.
"I'm not going to go out there and play tentative and scared. That's not me," Tebow said. "I did try to play smart."
The gameplan was so interesting in the first half -- it was a tentative offense, run by a seemingly tentative Tebow. And it worked -- thanks to the running backs. (Has Emmanuel Moody had a better game for Florida?)
In the second half, we saw a glimpse of -- as Meyer put it last week -- "Tim being Tim." Taking the ball himself and plunging up the middle. But this more conservative Tebow was still very effective, in his own non-spectacular way.
Coming into the game, I was EXTREMELY nervous about the prospects of Tebow playing -- I was concerned that he would exacerbate the concussion. And, yes, throughout the game, when they called his number, I cringed.
(Tebow had no such problems: "Actually I liked it. First time I got hit, everything felt good, I was like all right. I'm ready to go.")
And while I thought that Florida could beat LSU without Tebow playing like his 2007 or 2008 versions, I was thrilled to see him in there -- thrilled to see him playing within himself (even a temporarily conservative "himself") and within Florida's protectionist game plan.
And between Tebow, the running backs, Aaron Hernandez, the special teams (besides Sturgis' FG miss) and -- of course, more than anything -- the otherworldly defense, which might not just be the best in the country this season but among the best of all time, Florida is back on track as the team to beat.
Tebow is back. Not necessarily the old Tebow. But how could you not like this new Tebow?
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Tebow's Eye-Black: Thessalonians 5:18
Tebow is cleared to play, on the field for warmups with the 1st team and sporting the following on his eye-black:
Thessalonians 5:18
"In every thing give thanks: for this is the will of God concerning you."
In essence: Give thanks, no matter what your circumstance.
Tebow seems to be indicating that even though this has been arguably the toughest two weeks of football of his life, he is thankful for it -- as well as the chance to be back on the field tonight.
(Watch Google Trends tonight -- I guarantee that Thessalonians 5:18 will be a top search.)
Thessalonians 5:18
"In every thing give thanks: for this is the will of God concerning you."
In essence: Give thanks, no matter what your circumstance.
Tebow seems to be indicating that even though this has been arguably the toughest two weeks of football of his life, he is thankful for it -- as well as the chance to be back on the field tonight.
(Watch Google Trends tonight -- I guarantee that Thessalonians 5:18 will be a top search.)
Tebow Gameday at LSU: Who Knows?
This has been the longest two weeks in the history of Florida football fandom. (At least it has been for me -- I'd be curious if anyone DIDN'T agree.)
I'm not even sure that the questions and concerns will be answered at 8 -- or post-game.
Whether the Gators win or lose -- with or without Tebow -- it doesn't solve the essential question: Is Tim Tebow 100 percent healthy?
Will we cringe every time he plunges up the gut -- whether that is tonight or next week or next month? Or, at this point, are his chances of another concussion no greater than anyone who has never had one?
Oh, sure, if Tebow leads the Gators to a win -- that's one scenario. If he plays and they lose, that's another. If Brantley leads the team to a W without Tebow -- that's another. If Brantley-led Florida loses -- that's the last biggest scenario.
Most of the extreme anticipation for tonight is that the outcome -- and how we get there -- is entirely unclear.
Over the past two weeks, I (and we) have dissected this as far as it will go. My feeling is that Florida can win the game without Tebow.
Maybe that is just projection: I am so nervous about Tebow's health that I don't WANT to see him out there tonight -- but I still obviously want a Gators win.
If he plays, I will be holding my breath with the rest of you. But I suspect that if Florida follows Meyer's Plan to Win -- if they rely on their all-world defense, special teams, O-line and short-game skill-position players like Demps and Hernandez -- they can win. They will win.
Even without Tebow.
I'm not even sure that the questions and concerns will be answered at 8 -- or post-game.
Whether the Gators win or lose -- with or without Tebow -- it doesn't solve the essential question: Is Tim Tebow 100 percent healthy?
Will we cringe every time he plunges up the gut -- whether that is tonight or next week or next month? Or, at this point, are his chances of another concussion no greater than anyone who has never had one?
Oh, sure, if Tebow leads the Gators to a win -- that's one scenario. If he plays and they lose, that's another. If Brantley leads the team to a W without Tebow -- that's another. If Brantley-led Florida loses -- that's the last biggest scenario.
Most of the extreme anticipation for tonight is that the outcome -- and how we get there -- is entirely unclear.
Over the past two weeks, I (and we) have dissected this as far as it will go. My feeling is that Florida can win the game without Tebow.
Maybe that is just projection: I am so nervous about Tebow's health that I don't WANT to see him out there tonight -- but I still obviously want a Gators win.
If he plays, I will be holding my breath with the rest of you. But I suspect that if Florida follows Meyer's Plan to Win -- if they rely on their all-world defense, special teams, O-line and short-game skill-position players like Demps and Hernandez -- they can win. They will win.
Even without Tebow.
Friday, October 9, 2009
Latest Report: Tebow "Definitely" Will Play (Updated)
So there's an unconfirmed report that Tebow will "definitely" play tomorrow night. (I'm sorry: The report says he will definitely START. Give me a break.)
I'm skeptical -- what if Florida is winning decisively... what's the point of playing Tebow? (Let alone STARTING him?)
Further, what's the point of announcing with ANY certainty that Tebow will play? Why put pressure on the coaches to follow through, even in the event the context to play isn't right?
This also seems out of character for Meyer's normally tight-lipped coaching staff. I have a hard time believing that they would selectively leak to a local TV reporter.
In the end, something like "he will definitely play" sounds more like someone's idea of wishful thinking than reality.
I'm not saying he WON'T play. I still think that Florida will be executing well enough that Tebow won't NEED to play, that Meyer won't need to risk playing him unnecessarily.
It is possible that necessity will raise itself. But I'm not quite sure I see the logic in playing Tebow just for the sake of giving him a couple of snaps in what should be a game Florida can control.
*****
UPDATE: Saurian Sagacity with a terrific point -- folks were saying "definitely" about Percy Harvin before the SEC Championship Game last year. So it's likely either wishful thinking, bad sourcing or intentional disinformation (um, "gamesmanship.")
I'm skeptical -- what if Florida is winning decisively... what's the point of playing Tebow? (Let alone STARTING him?)
Further, what's the point of announcing with ANY certainty that Tebow will play? Why put pressure on the coaches to follow through, even in the event the context to play isn't right?
This also seems out of character for Meyer's normally tight-lipped coaching staff. I have a hard time believing that they would selectively leak to a local TV reporter.
In the end, something like "he will definitely play" sounds more like someone's idea of wishful thinking than reality.
I'm not saying he WON'T play. I still think that Florida will be executing well enough that Tebow won't NEED to play, that Meyer won't need to risk playing him unnecessarily.
It is possible that necessity will raise itself. But I'm not quite sure I see the logic in playing Tebow just for the sake of giving him a couple of snaps in what should be a game Florida can control.
*****
UPDATE: Saurian Sagacity with a terrific point -- folks were saying "definitely" about Percy Harvin before the SEC Championship Game last year. So it's likely either wishful thinking, bad sourcing or intentional disinformation (um, "gamesmanship.")
Tebow LSU Pick: Won't Play, Gators Win Anyway
Tim Tebow will be on the sidelines, in uniform, for tomorrow night's game at LSU. He will be cleared to play. He will be roaming the sidelines, inspiring his teammates. He will act as an assistant QB coach, talking John Brantley through the game.
And Tebow will not play.
The goal will be to do enough to beat LSU without needing to call on Tebow.
And John Brantley will be good enough -- limited mistakes, thanks to an offensive game plan intentionally designed to keep Brantley from trying to do too much.
Florida's defense will be spectacular -- worthy of its best-in-the-nation designation. Florida's special teams will be key, particularly in winning field-position battles. Florida's RBs will carry the load -- Jeff Demps is a TD machine. Surprise players will take direct snaps.
Tim Tebow is the best player on Florida's team. He is the best player in college football. He may even be the best player in college football history.
And even still, Florida will beat LSU at LSU...without Tebow.
Florida 27, LSU 16
That Florida could beat LSU at LSU without Tebow: What does that say about Tebow? What does that say about this team? Plenty of time to talk about that next week.
Put your own game predictions -- a score, how you think the Tebow scenario will play out -- in the comments.
More posts up until gametime, as developments demand.
And Tebow will not play.
The goal will be to do enough to beat LSU without needing to call on Tebow.
And John Brantley will be good enough -- limited mistakes, thanks to an offensive game plan intentionally designed to keep Brantley from trying to do too much.
Florida's defense will be spectacular -- worthy of its best-in-the-nation designation. Florida's special teams will be key, particularly in winning field-position battles. Florida's RBs will carry the load -- Jeff Demps is a TD machine. Surprise players will take direct snaps.
Tim Tebow is the best player on Florida's team. He is the best player in college football. He may even be the best player in college football history.
And even still, Florida will beat LSU at LSU...without Tebow.
Florida 27, LSU 16
That Florida could beat LSU at LSU without Tebow: What does that say about Tebow? What does that say about this team? Plenty of time to talk about that next week.
Put your own game predictions -- a score, how you think the Tebow scenario will play out -- in the comments.
More posts up until gametime, as developments demand.
Tebow vs. LSU: Will He Play?
Will Tim Tebow play? With a little less than 36 hours until kickoff in Baton Rouge, this has become THE story of the game.
Here's what we know -- or think we know:
*Tebow will be cleared to play.
*Urban Meyer won't decide IF Tebow will play until kickoff -- or, in my opinion, well into the game, when he can see if Tebow absolutely MUST play.
*Florida's complementary parts -- the defense, the special teams, the RBs -- are enough to beat LSU at LSU with John Brantley as QB.
I think that Meyer will NOT play Tebow if he can help it.
*****
Here is a very interesting analysis by the Palm Beach Posts's Ben Volin summarizing the 9 reasons Brantley will play -- and should play -- and why Tebow won't and shouldn't.
And here is my Sporting News column from this morning about why Florida won't need to go to Tebow, which brings up all sorts of interesting postscripts of its own next week.
Here's what we know -- or think we know:
*Tebow will be cleared to play.
*Urban Meyer won't decide IF Tebow will play until kickoff -- or, in my opinion, well into the game, when he can see if Tebow absolutely MUST play.
*Florida's complementary parts -- the defense, the special teams, the RBs -- are enough to beat LSU at LSU with John Brantley as QB.
I think that Meyer will NOT play Tebow if he can help it.
*****
Here is a very interesting analysis by the Palm Beach Posts's Ben Volin summarizing the 9 reasons Brantley will play -- and should play -- and why Tebow won't and shouldn't.
And here is my Sporting News column from this morning about why Florida won't need to go to Tebow, which brings up all sorts of interesting postscripts of its own next week.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Media Tebow LSU Picks: A Cop-Out, Then Redemption
I really am a big fan of Robbie Andreu's work as the Gators reporter for the Gainesville Sun. But it is a cop-out for him to lead his LSU prediction post with this:
And I'm not even concerned with whether Andreu thinks Tebow will START -- in fact, I don't think anyone thinks that. I want to know if Andreu thinks Tebow will PLAY... at all.
I don't think it's too much to ask the hometown beat reporter to offer up a prediction -- or at least some dogged connect-the-dots reporting of the between-the-lines coachspeak that would give us some insights into which way he thinks the coaches and medical staff are leaning -- on this. If he isn't going to make a prediction, he should at least point readers to the relevant evidence that will help them make their OWN prediction.
Robbie redeems himself with what comes next, which echoes something I've been saying for two weeks:
Meyer’s plan to win will be in full effect for this one. That means play strong defense, take care of the football, score in the red zone, win special teams and the battle for field position.
Most of all, I love that he agrees with my opinion that the Gators will win the game:
My official game prediction is coming tomorrow. If you've been keeping up here, it won't surprise you.
One thing I’m not going to predict is whether Tim Tebow starts Saturday night. Let’s just say I won’t be shocked if he does, I won’t be shocked if he doesn’t.Way to take a stand. You know the topic as well as anyone, but won't provide an educated guess? Who cares if you're wrong? Will you lose your job? No. Will Meyer not talk with you? No.
And I'm not even concerned with whether Andreu thinks Tebow will START -- in fact, I don't think anyone thinks that. I want to know if Andreu thinks Tebow will PLAY... at all.
I don't think it's too much to ask the hometown beat reporter to offer up a prediction -- or at least some dogged connect-the-dots reporting of the between-the-lines coachspeak that would give us some insights into which way he thinks the coaches and medical staff are leaning -- on this. If he isn't going to make a prediction, he should at least point readers to the relevant evidence that will help them make their OWN prediction.
Robbie redeems himself with what comes next, which echoes something I've been saying for two weeks:
But I will predict this: the Gators are good enough to win this game without Tebow. They’re better on both lines of scrimmage than LSU, they’re better on defense, they’re better on special teams.Amen to that. And he seconds my take that Meyer's "Plan to Win" has never been about Tebow exclusively, but areas of the game where the Gators can excel -- with or without Tebow:
Meyer’s plan to win will be in full effect for this one. That means play strong defense, take care of the football, score in the red zone, win special teams and the battle for field position.
Most of all, I love that he agrees with my opinion that the Gators will win the game:
So, here’s the prediction. It won’t be pretty (unless you really love defensive football), but the Gators will have enough to get it done no matter who starts at quarterback: Florida 24, LSU 21.Read the whole thing -- while the opening frustrated me, Andreu's analysis is nuanced and dead-on. And I'm not just saying that because I've been spouting similar theories all week.
My official game prediction is coming tomorrow. If you've been keeping up here, it won't surprise you.
Tim Tweetbow: Tebow Tweet of the Day
The definitive Tebow-related Tweet of the Day, courtesy of the Orlando Sentinel:
UPDATE: More, per Fowler and the Sentinel:
"But the feeling among the team seems to be growing that Tebow will be medically cleared to play. After that, a tough decision must be made."
I'll stick with this: Play him only in the most dire of circumstances of Brantley's failure -- which I don't think will occur, given the way the system will hedge against his problems.
@osgators: Nothing will be official till Saturday, but the buzz is leaning toward #Tebow playing barring no concussion aftereffects.What are we talking about here? A couple plays? A couple series? Will he be expected to run? Will the game scenario -- close, blowout, Brantley struggling (turnovers or ineffectiveness) -- matter?
UPDATE: More, per Fowler and the Sentinel:
"But the feeling among the team seems to be growing that Tebow will be medically cleared to play. After that, a tough decision must be made."
I'll stick with this: Play him only in the most dire of circumstances of Brantley's failure -- which I don't think will occur, given the way the system will hedge against his problems.
Tebow Must-Read: "Empty Tebow" Xs & Os
Drop what you're doing and read this incredible analysis of Florida's Tebow-less ("Empty Tebow") offense by Smart Football's Chris Brown (published just now on Yahoo's Dr. Saturday). So much good stuff in here, I can't even begin to pull out highlights. Just read it.
*****
OK, I couldn't help myself. This was the rambling fanboyish email I sent to Chris in response to reading his column:
And yet I'm so confident -- makes-me-uncomfortable confident -- that the Gators will win, even without Tebow playing.
*****
OK, I couldn't help myself. This was the rambling fanboyish email I sent to Chris in response to reading his column:
I am so thrilled you broke down Florida's offense under Brantley.You bet that read like a hopped-up message-board post. (Maybe I'll republish it at GatorSports.com Message Boards or GatorCountry.) That's how excited I am about the game Saturday night. So many unknowns. So many possible scenarios.
I think he'll start and play the whole game -- mainly because I don't think Florida will lose, and if Florida gets a lead or even keeps it close -- presuming Brantley isn't keeping it close by turning the ball over -- Meyer will leave Tebow on the bench, because, in the end, the risk is so high. Too high.
And, though it might implode the worldview of many Tebow fans, Brantley is good enough -- and this Florida team around him is great enough -- that he can be the QB to win the game at LSU.
Consider that for a sec: A QB making his first start ever at LSU at night against a purportedly Top 5 team will helm the team to a win. That says one thing about LSU, another about Tebow's value (real vs. perceived) and another about how ridiculously good this Florida team is AROUND Tebow.
What keeps getting overlooked: Florida's defense is the best in the country. It might be the best of all time. They should be able to hold LSU to under 20 points -- maybe under 13 or 14. I *presume* that Florida's D will score a TD of its own.
I also presume that Florida's special teams -- again, best in the country -- will score a TD. (Or trigger a game-changing punt-block or limit LSU's return game significantly.)
So the rest of the team is spotting Brantley -- and the defense -- 14 points. Even if Brantley can't get in the end zone, field position battles -- which Meyer excels at -- should put Florida in 2-3 FG opps, minimum. That's 20-21 points, clearing the "20" hurdle the defense will have to hold LSU to.
And that doesn't even count Jeff Demps, who has scored a TD every game this season -- as a runner, he is every bit as explosive as Percy at Harvin's most healthy. He should get his, too. That's 27-28. There's no way that LSU scores 27 on this defense.
UNLESS: Brantley fumbles or throws INTs that create easy points opportunities for LSU.
Which brings me back to my point: Unless Brantley is incompetent -- not just mediocre -- Tebow won't play. If Brantley is atrocious, Urban may play Tebow. But the more likely scenario is that Urban doesn't put Brantley in a position to be atrocious. He will put him in a position to avoid big mistakes, even if that also avoids big plays. He doesn't need them -- at least on offense, from the QB. They can come from Joe Haden on D or Brandon James on PR or Jeff Demps running the ball.
With a team like Florida's around Brantley, Meyer can afford to do that. See the way he handled Chris Leak in '06. Conservative -- and the only stumbling block that year was at Auburn, when Muschamp figured out Meyer's offense and the green Gators' D -- not this group of 2010 and 2011 NFL rookies -- couldn't get a stop. LSU ain't getting Auburn's chance.
OK, I'll end my rant now.
And yet I'm so confident -- makes-me-uncomfortable confident -- that the Gators will win, even without Tebow playing.
Tebow vs. LSU: 2006 (The Jump Pass)
The Jump Pass.
That sort of says it all, doesn't it?
For Tim Tebow, the 2006 LSU game was a coming-out party. Prior to that, he had a few moments -- notably the win-influencing (if not precisely game-winning) 4th-down conversion against Tennessee -- but nothing mythological.
Tebow had only 11 plays, but -- oh -- what plays: He was 2/2 passing... with 2 TDs. And he had 9 carries for 35 yards (a respectable 3.9 ypc given that LSU's defense was very good and they knew Tebow would be running) and a rushing TD that tied the score 7-7 at the end of the 1st quarter.
The jump pass came with just seconds to play in the 2nd quarter. The score was still 7-7. Behind Chris Leak, Florida had driven 7 plays, from their own 28 to LSU's 14 (after a UF false-start penalty). Two LSU penalties later, the Gators were on LSU's 4...
Tebow Time.
Tebow plunged through the pile 3 yards, setting up 2nd and goal from LSU's 1, with 28 seconds to play. Then, with the half about to end, Tebow lined up again, with the assumption by everyone -- most of all, by LSU, that Urban would bet on a Tebow plunge.
Instead, Tebow hesitated, faked and went up the air. He double-clutched -- like a basketball shot, I remember Verne Lundquist saying immediately -- and the ball found Tate Casey, who fell backwards like a toddler, gripping the ball like it was the first catch of his life.
The legend of the "Jump Pass" was created. Here's the video (it's blurry, but homemade, which makes it a lot more exciting than the standard TV clip):
The Gators would use the win as a springboard. Despite losing at Auburn one week later -- how deflating! -- Florida would sprint through the SEC title game and into their first national title of the Tebow Era.
Kirk Herbstreit had one of the best Tebow-related quotes ever, which he relayed in the preseason when he was doing his GameDay media tour. He discussed his first trip in person to see Tebow, at The Swamp for the LSU game. And he recounted that Tebow got more crowd support than anyone -- and it was loud:
"I said to (Chris) Fowler it’s like he's Roy Hobbs from the movie 'The Natural.'"
Agreed.
If my infatuation with Tim Tebow didn't come on his very first play as a Gator -- and I would argue its genesis was his first carry in the first game (a TD against Southern Miss in the season-opener) -- the Jump Pass was the moment when I and everyone else were overwhelmed by Tebow Mania. It was his 5th game ever.
To Herbie's point, Malamud's fictional "The Natural" is probably the closest thing to the real-life Tebow myth. (Roy Hobbs and Tim Tebow aren't precise analogies, but they remain appropriate: Both are idealized "naturals" in their given sports.
The only difference: Tebow is real. LSU's senior class -- the ones on the field and the sidelines at The Swamp in 2006 -- would know that better than anyone.
That sort of says it all, doesn't it?
For Tim Tebow, the 2006 LSU game was a coming-out party. Prior to that, he had a few moments -- notably the win-influencing (if not precisely game-winning) 4th-down conversion against Tennessee -- but nothing mythological.
Tebow had only 11 plays, but -- oh -- what plays: He was 2/2 passing... with 2 TDs. And he had 9 carries for 35 yards (a respectable 3.9 ypc given that LSU's defense was very good and they knew Tebow would be running) and a rushing TD that tied the score 7-7 at the end of the 1st quarter.
The jump pass came with just seconds to play in the 2nd quarter. The score was still 7-7. Behind Chris Leak, Florida had driven 7 plays, from their own 28 to LSU's 14 (after a UF false-start penalty). Two LSU penalties later, the Gators were on LSU's 4...
Tebow Time.
Tebow plunged through the pile 3 yards, setting up 2nd and goal from LSU's 1, with 28 seconds to play. Then, with the half about to end, Tebow lined up again, with the assumption by everyone -- most of all, by LSU, that Urban would bet on a Tebow plunge.
Instead, Tebow hesitated, faked and went up the air. He double-clutched -- like a basketball shot, I remember Verne Lundquist saying immediately -- and the ball found Tate Casey, who fell backwards like a toddler, gripping the ball like it was the first catch of his life.
The legend of the "Jump Pass" was created. Here's the video (it's blurry, but homemade, which makes it a lot more exciting than the standard TV clip):
The Gators would use the win as a springboard. Despite losing at Auburn one week later -- how deflating! -- Florida would sprint through the SEC title game and into their first national title of the Tebow Era.
Kirk Herbstreit had one of the best Tebow-related quotes ever, which he relayed in the preseason when he was doing his GameDay media tour. He discussed his first trip in person to see Tebow, at The Swamp for the LSU game. And he recounted that Tebow got more crowd support than anyone -- and it was loud:
"I said to (Chris) Fowler it’s like he's Roy Hobbs from the movie 'The Natural.'"
Agreed.
If my infatuation with Tim Tebow didn't come on his very first play as a Gator -- and I would argue its genesis was his first carry in the first game (a TD against Southern Miss in the season-opener) -- the Jump Pass was the moment when I and everyone else were overwhelmed by Tebow Mania. It was his 5th game ever.
To Herbie's point, Malamud's fictional "The Natural" is probably the closest thing to the real-life Tebow myth. (Roy Hobbs and Tim Tebow aren't precise analogies, but they remain appropriate: Both are idealized "naturals" in their given sports.
The only difference: Tebow is real. LSU's senior class -- the ones on the field and the sidelines at The Swamp in 2006 -- would know that better than anyone.
Should Tebow Play: Mr. College Football Weighs In
Echoing what I've been arguing for a week, "Mr. College Football" Tony Barnhart delivers his analysis of whether Tim Tebow will/will not and should/should not play:
Because here is what you can’t do. You can’t put Tim Tebow out on the field and ask him to play at anything less than full speed. You can’t ask him to finesse this situation. That is not his nature. Tebow’s personality and competitive drive will not allow him to do that.And that makes playing him very uncertain.
If Tebow is on the field he can’t hold anything back. If he has to hold anything back, then Tim Tebow should be in street clothes and the team needs to rally behind John Brantley.
The team can win with John Brantley, even if they don't rally behind him (and there are no reasons they wouldn't/shouldn't).
If there is ANY doubt—no matter how slight—about Tim Tebow’s condition then he should not play.
Amen.
I still think that Tebow will dress. Brantley will start. As long as the Gators are ahead or in the game with existing personnel (read: Brantley), Tebow won't play -- because he wouldn't NEED to play to win the game.
If Brantley is absolutely horrible -- defined more by turnovers (fumbles and INTs) than simply missed/poor passes -- but the Gators are still in it, I could see Meyer playing Tebow.
But Brantley isn't going to be horrible - mainly because, barring dumb turnovers, the system is built to inoculate him from being horrible. Mediocre? Maybe. But definitely GOOD ENOUGH.
And Brantley being "good enough" is enough for a loaded Florida team to beat LSU in Baton Rouge.
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