Thursda Tebow Morning Reads

I summed it up yesterday afternoon. Nothing really new heading into Thursday morning. Still, a few must-reads:

*Fowler's wrap-up of Wednesday practice news. (Sentinel)

*Goodman's poll of Florida reporters: 12-12 on will-he/won't-he play (didn't ask me -- boo)

*More concussion-expert analysis (Sentinel)

*EDSBS' Concussion Watch updated: Matthew McConaghey (EDSBS)

More later.

Win Without Tebow: Meyer Ideal Game Plan

Building on that last post, if there is an "ideal" game scenario against LSU for Urban Meyer, it is that Florida controls the game to the point where they can win without playing Tim Tebow.

This is where Meyer's "Plan to Win" comes into play: Defense. Special teams (kickoff coverage; punt blocks and coverage; Brandon James' kickoff and punt returns). Red-zone efficiency. Turnover battle (forcing them from LSU, limiting them from Florida's offense).

None of those are predicated on Tim Tebow playing. 75 percent of the game's result will hinge on nothing to do with John Brantley:

Florida's best-in-nation defense stifling LSU's offense... Florida's best-in-nation special teams producing on coverage and returns... Florida's ability to get points -- any points, including field goals -- when they are inside LSU's 20...

The remaining 25 percent -- turnovers -- is where John Brantley comes into play. Obviously, he can't control if Emmanuel Moody fumbles the ball. But he can control his own ball-security, both on the ground and through the air. Even if Florida forces no LSU turnovers, limiting their own turnovers to zero will go a long way to allowing the Gators to escape LSU with a win.

This won't be pretty. This won't be "best-team-of-all-time" material -- except to the extent that beating a Top 5 opponent on the road at their virtually unbeatable home stadium when your best player is out with injury... well, that's pretty "best-team-of-all-time" stuff.

But the goal will be to get a lead, then hold that lead. If the defense can pitch a shutout -- and the offense doesn't allow for any defensive TDs by LSU (pick-6 or fumble recovery for a TD) -- John Brantley's job just got a lot easier. If the D can hold LSU to 10 or less, there's no reason this Florida offense -- with or without Tebow -- can score 11 or more points.

The ultimate goal feels like escaping LSU without further injury to Tebow. If they can win the game in the process -- without Tebow's help -- that is the ideal.

Maybe Tebow Will Play, Maybe He Won't(But Ideal Will Be "Win Without Tebow")

Tim Tebow may or may not play against LSU. And that is exactly what Urban Meyer is preparing for. Here is the latest quote from Meyer:

"We’re game-planning as if there’s a chance Tim could play, and there’s a chance he won’t play. And that’s going to be pretty much the response until the foot hits the ball."

Per Volin:

Meyer said on Wednesday that he "absolutely" will err on the side of caution with Tebow, and acknowledged that he may sit out his Heisman-winning quarterback even if he is cleared to play.

And here's an immensely helpful guide from the Sentinel's Jeremy Fowler, laying out the pros and cons of using Tebow versus John Brantley.

For me, there's only one factor for Tebow: Risk of further injury, with a related secondary point that after being out for 10 days, he won't be able to perform like he is accustomed to -- to tie it to the first point, he won't be able to help himself, and he will put himself in a position for further injury.

I think that Urban Meyer won't play Tebow, although there is an extreme case where he might: If the game is close and Brantley has proven utterly ineffective -- the score is 0-0 or 3-3 or 6-6 (with Brantley-triggered turnovers like fumbles or INTs) and a handful of possessions by Tebow might be the difference between winning and losing.

But (a) I don't think even that will sway Meyer to play Tebow, and (b) I don't think Brantley will struggle. Even if he can't score TDs, I think the defense and special teams could put up 14 points by themselves (not counting FGs), easing the burden on Brantley -- the defense will hold LSU in check. And if the game is a blowout -- either way -- Meyer won't play Tebow.

20 points can win the game for Florida -- there are plenty of ways to get there, without Tebow.

Meyer's ideal game plan will be to scrape out a win...without Tebow.

Tim Tebow Practices, Not Cleared to Play

Big news: Tim Tebow practiced today. In pads, no less.

Now, he wasn't exposed to any contact, which is sort of like me going out there to practice with Florida's first team.

And Tebow hasn't been cleared to play Saturday...yet.

But short of his first practice contact -- coming who-knows-when -- generating tough reviews from the docs, all signs point to Tebow being cleared to play at LSU.

Now, whether he WILL play at LSU is another story.

The Gators can win without him.

Tebow Quote of the Day: Gary Danielson

"I really feel that if Tebow doesn’t play, the pressure is really off the Florida football team."

-- CBS Sports college football analyst Gary Danielson on Tim Tebow and the "will-he-or-won't-he, should-he-or-shouldn't-he" question vs. LSU, as told to the Orlando Sentinel's crackerjack Andrea Adelson.

This gibes with the one of the points I made in my Yahoo column today. If Florida loses, it's: "Hey, they played without Tim Tebow." If Florida wins, it's "Hey, they won even without Tim Tebow."

And most people -- not me, obviously -- are not giving Florida a chance if Tebow doesn't play. I don't think they understand how good this defense is, how good the special teams are, how good the running backs are and -- most of all -- how solid John Brantley is.

Barring pick-6 INTs thrown by Brantley or bad ball-security on their half of the field (which is covered under Meyer's "Plan" under "don't turn the effing ball over"), how many points will LSU's good-not-great offense score on this ridiculously good Florida defense? 14? 20 tops?

Now consider that Florida's D is the one likely to trigger the turnover or pick-6. And their special teams will spring Brandon James for a punt return TD. And then John Brantley is responsible for one TD -- and, based on his existing productivity levels, you can pencil in Jeff Demps for that. And even if the Florida offense CAN'T score a TD, try two or three Sturgis FGs.

It won't take a prolific offensive output for this Florida team to beat this LSU team -- it will take otherworldly defense, solid special teams (James scoring, but also containing LSU's Holliday), limiting turnovers (while causing some) and scoring in the red zone (either TDs or FGs, it almost doesn't matter).

Read the entire interview, because Danielson nails the reasoning why Florida -- even without Tebow -- has a great shot at winning. (Hint: It has everything to do with Meyer's style and his "Plan To Win," as noted in the Yahoo column.)

Tebow Tuesday Reads: Andreu and Low

"But given the concerns about Tebow’s health and the fact he hasn’t practiced, maybe the decision will be made to go ahead and start Brantley and see how the sophomore does. ... If Brantley is successful, let him go the distance and let Tebow rest some more. It would be a positive on two fronts. It would help Brantley get ready to take over as the starter next season, and it would help Tebow get back to where he needs to be to lead this team down the stretch for what could be a championship run for the Gators."

-- Gainesville Sun Florida beat writer Robbie Andreu, with some sensible advice. (The whole post does a great job of synthesizing a huge issues this week, namely: Even if cleared, can Tebow be ready by Saturday?)

And here's a new post by ESPN.com SEC blogger Chris Low, who does a nice job wrestling with the "Should he play/shouldn't he play?" question. (Speaking of my weekly Yahoo column, consider that I spotted that should/shouldn't as THE issue of the week... last week.)

This posted now, because we're all killing time waiting for a practice report, given Joe Schad's eyewitness tweet an hour ago that Tebow was in pads heading for the practice field. Big development.

Tebow vs. LSU or Tebow vs. Himself?

My latest Tebow-related Yahoo column is live, and the crux is that Tim Tebow could play or not play against LSU -- and Florida could win or lose -- and his status is still THE determinative story of the game. To summarize:

LSU beats Florida without Tebow? "Yeah, but the Gators didn't have Tebow."

Florida beats LSU without Tebow? "Wow, the Gators won even without Tebow."

LSU beats Florida with Tebow? "Yeah, but Tebow was not Tebow."

Florida beats LSU with Tebow? "What CAN'T Tebow do?"

I also reiterate my week-long positions:

(1) I think Florida can/will beat LSU -- even AT Death Valley -- without Tebow.

(That's a combination of Florida's sick defense, sick special teams, sick RBs and very capable backup QB, plus LSU not looking particularly overwhelming the last two weeks.)

(2) Even if he's "cleared" to play, isn't the (re-)injury risk particularly acute?

Check out the complete column here. There's a lot more in there, although Teblog regulars will find echoes of strings of thought over the last 9 days.

(What? You're not a regular? With 3-5 new Tebow-related posts published per day, you should be! Give it a try! Bookmark it and check back throughout the day. And tell your friends who might not know about it and would like it! OK, I'll now end my appeal for your attention.)

EDSBS Strategies for Tebow vs. LSU

Another great Tebow-related post from EDSBS with a mix of serious and hilarious strategies that Florida might employ if/when they put Tim Tebow in the game -- that's obviously the assumption made in his post. I'm still not convinced.

Of the "serious" strategies, the most likely would be the RunRunRunRunRun option, combined with the "max protect" option. The least likely seems to be the Oklahoma/Texas Tech pass-so-much-and-so-quickly-you-never-get-touched. The one I like the best is breaking out the Haden-led Wildcat-ish formation every half-dozen snaps.

Of the hilarious strategies, I really like the idea of just putting him in the red jersey and hope LSU gets confused.

With Brantley or Tebow, I think it looks a lot like the offense in 2005 and 2006 when Chris Leak was having trouble -- my question: Who plays the "2006 Tebow" single-wing specialist role? Joe Haden? One of the RBs? Remains to be seen.

BTW: No one does the mixture of inspired analysis and funny like Orson. If you like his schtick -- or mine, for that matter -- you can catch us both in Las Vegas next week at the Blogs With Balls conference. Cheap tickets still available!

Tebow LSU Update: No Decision Yet

"Today's a big day. Tomorrow is a big day. That's (evaluation is) going on right now. Tuesday-Wednesday are huge when you're out nine, 10 days now. It's all about steps. We'll know more today."

-- Urban Meyer to USA Today, about Tebow's status for LSU on Saturday. In typical Meyer fashion, he's being as honest as he can be, but he's not in a position to say anything definitive.

Kudos to the Palm Beach Post's intrepid Ben Volin, whose reporting that John Brantley is the likely starter -- even if Tebow is cleared to play -- has been leading Tebow-related discussion today.

Let's say Tebow is cleared, but Brantley starts -- there's no guarantee that Tebow would play. If it looked like the Gators had the game in hand -- or, I suppose, were being routed (theoretical point, at best) -- I don't think they would play him.

Tebow Quote of the Day: Kenny Carter

"All I know is he's Tim Tebow, and my money is on him."

-- Florida RB coach Kenny Carter, to Miami Herald Gators beat reporter Jo Goodman, on whether or not Tebow will play against LSU.

More from Carter:

"It's rather presumptive to think that Tim's not playing. He may be playing."

Urban Meyer on Tebow: "Looks Better"

"Tim looks better. Other than that, I don't know."

One more:

"Can Tim play quarterback against a very good defense without practicing? I don't know that."

-- Urban Meyer, from his press conference today, on the state of Tim Tebow.

More from Meyer:

*Tebow is headache-free.
*Tebow's post-concussion symptoms are gone.
*Tebow is not cleared to practice yet.
*When he is, Tebow will not get hit in practice.
(See this PBP post from Volin about that.)
*No certainty on when the team will announce Tebow's game status.

Still: That's all good news. All you want to hear is about positive progress. Still makes me nervous, but I sincerely believe that Urban Meyer wouldn't do anything to jeopardize Tim Tebow's short-term and long-term potential.

*****

Brantley Watch: Meyer said that Deonte Thompson is back at full strength. This is huge. He is Florida's best WR and a deep threat to take advantage of Brantley's arm strength and keep LSU from stuffing the box, keying on the Demps-Rainey-Moody-Gillislee quartet.

Tebow Update: LSU Game Week Kickoff

Wow, last week felt like it went on forever, didn't it?

And while Tim Tebow is presumably recovering nicely from his concussion -- "ahead of schedule," per Urban -- there are a couple of essential unknowns... and possibly unknowables:

*Will Tebow be recovered -- or recovered enough (presuming there is no magic "100 percent recovered" diagnosis from any reputable doctor) -- to be cleared to play against LSU?

*If Tebow isn't cleared, what does the projection look like of when he WILL be cleared? Arkansas week? More? (Secondarily: How does Brantley size up in preparing to start at LSU?)

*If Tebow is cleared, to what extent is he cleared to play -- can he not run, not run headfirst, not take a sack? (Begs the question: If Tebow can't play like Tebow, is he really "recovered?")

That last point is huge: It was Urban himself who said Florida won't play him "'til Tim is Tim." Well, not being able to run 12-15 times per game if necessary -- and headfirst -- is not "Tim."

*****

Alligator Army kicks off LSU game week by calling this "The Most Important Week of Tim Tebow's Career." It is certainly the most uncertain -- there may be no status until Saturday.

The post is worth a read, broken into three scenarios: (1) "Tebow plays, Florida wins"; (2) "Tebow plays, Florida loses"; (3) "Tebow doesn't play."

I would layer on top of that the most critical hypothetical of all: "Win OR lose, what if Tebow exacerbates the concussion?"

That is the thought that has me cringing at the thought of him playing -- let alone taking any kind of hit.

(Remember that it was a freak knee to the head by his own teammate that triggered the concussion, not the hit from the lineman -- even if Florida offensive linemen commit penalty after penalty to avoid Tebow getting hit, what's to stop the freak play -- like last week?)

-- D.S.

Tebow Quote of the Day: Robbie Andreu

"When he comes back from his concussion (and it could be as soon as the LSU game this week), that big, veteran offensive line needs to take care of Tebow like never before. No blown assignments, no sacks, no blindside sacks on the quarterback. Whatever it takes, hold if you have to, but keep Tebow on his feet and away from as much contact as possible. There's no question, those fast, physical SEC defenses see Tebow as a target now. The coaching staff can do its part by taking some of the running responsibility off Tebow's plate. Tebow's the guy, and the Gators obviously need him to reach Atlanta."

-- Gainesville Sun beat reporter Robbie Andreu, on why "Protecting the Franchise" (Tebow) is the Gators' No. 1 priority for the rest of the season.

I have a couple of questions about this:

Quote: "Whatever it takes, hold if you have to, but keep Tebow on his feet and away from as much contact as possible."

Question: If the offensive line has to commit penalty after penalty in order to make sure that Tebow doesn't get hit -- presumably because Andreu is concerned about the effects to Tebow if he does get hit -- isn't that a tiny indication that Tebow might not be ready to come back? Getting hit is a reality for any QB -- if Tebow can't take a hit anymore, that is a HUGE problem.

Quote: "Tebow's the guy, and the Gators obviously need him to reach Atlanta."

Question: Obviously? Really? Sure, with a healthy Tebow, Florida is one of the great teams of all time... but isn't it possible that with Brantley playing in his place, Florida is still so stacked -- on defense, with RBs, on special teams, with coaching brilliance -- that they can still win every game the rest of the way? They'll be favored in them, even without Tebow. LSU is the toughest remaining game before Atlanta -- if Florida can win at LSU without Tebow, do they really need him to reach Atlanta? I don't think so.

Very important caveat: I'm NOT saying that Florida isn't better with a healthy Tebow than without him -- obviously, they are.

What I am saying is limited to the very specific point Andreu references: Tebow playing isn't a precondition for Florida getting to Atlanta. If Tebow's season ended last week at Kentucky -- ack! god forbid! -- the Gators would still be favored to reach Atlanta. Even without Tebow. They are just that loaded.

I am as enthusiastic as everyone else that Tebow be fully recovered and help this team fulfill it's "all-time great" potential. But it is a testament to just how good this team is that even without Tebow, they could still march unbeaten into Atlanta -- and beyond.

Tebow Sunday Morning Update

There was no Gator game yesterday, obviously, but most avid Gator fans were probably paying close attention the the LSU-Georgia game in Athens, which -- until the final 4 minutes -- was hardly a match-up of two powerful teams.

Yes: LSU on the road during the day is not nearly the same team as LSU at home at night. But after watching LSU the past two weeks, they have not looked like a Top 5 team (or even a Top 10 team) and certainly have not looked like a team that can beat Florida -- with or without Tebow.

"With or without Tebow": This is key. From the way LSU has looked -- plus the things we know about the strength of this Florida team without Tebow (the best-in-nation defense, the best-in-nation RB platoon, the best-in-nation special teams), that feels like enough to supplement a solid (if not spectacular) game from Brantley next Saturday night.

My prediction is that -- no matter how "ahead of schedule" Tim Tebow might be -- I cannot imagine that Florida doctors will clear him at "100 percent," which by definition means that he is as healthy (and ready for persistent Tebow-like contact and play-calling) as he was before the concussion. They might clear him to play, but I imagine they would be holding their breath any time Tebow took a snap. (Does that sound like "100 percent" confidence to you?)

I think that -- like Harvin vs. Alabama in the SEC title game last year -- conservatism will rule...

...Especially as the coaching staff gets more bullish on the idea that this team -- this team -- is so good that they can go into Death Valley and beat LSU... with John Brantley as the QB.

How I Became a Florida Gators Fan

The bye week is fortuitous: Today is my 5th wedding anniversary. Actually, it probably would be more representative if there WAS a Florida game today, as my relationship with my wife is essential to my Florida fandom -- and, consequently, my enthusiasm for maintaining TimTeblog.

While you wait out a fairly unimpressive LSU-Georgia game -- and, combined with last week's LSU performance at Mississippi State, begin to feel that Brantley (plus the D, RBs and special teams) will be more than enough next week, Tebow or no Tebow -- get my Gators fandom backstory.

Tebow Update: "TeBye Week"

Who else feels like they need the bye week -- if only to take a breather from the insanity over the past 7 days? Consider: A week ago right now, things were VERY different.

Today, let's sit back and scout next week's opponent: LSU, in a prove-it game at Georgia (following last week's shoulda-lost at Mississippi State).

There will be plenty of time tomorrow -- and the rest of next week -- to obsess over will he/won't he (and should he/shouldn't he), plus Brantley-Watching, game-planning and overall mania.

The bye week is not just a rest/recovery day for the team, before the season gets REALLY intense -- it's a good Saturday off for fans, too. This year, more than ever.

Tim Tebow vs. John Brantley for LSU Game

Capturing a lot what I've been arguing all week:

"[B]ecause of Tebow's current condition, there is no difference between he and Brantley in terms of who is most qualified to play against LSU. Brantley lacks Tebow's experience and intensity, Tebow lacks Brantley's preparation and health. For that, Brantley needs to start against LSU, with Tebow in uniform but only appearing in a relief appearance."

-- Alligator Army, with the practical argument for why John Brantley should start.

(My only quibble: Tebow shouldn't even appear in relief, even if Brantley goes down with injury or is plagued by ineffectiveness. The Gators' RB-heavy system will hedge any QB ineffectiveness.) Read AA's whole post.

There will be a LOT more on Brantley next week. It sounds like Tebow will return to practice next week, in some form or another. (The whole "ahead of schedule" meme.) But I project Brantley will still be getting the starter's reps at practice.

Remainders: More on Tebow ConcussionFrom Slate and Team Speed Kills

I neglected to link to this terrific Slate column on Tebow's concussion. If you haven't seen it yet, it's a must-read.

One more must-read: Team Speed Kills making a lot of sense in settling down and cutting through much of the noise surrounding the Tebow concussion.

Extra credit for TSK for referencing the way Urban Meyer and the Florida medical staff handled Percy Harvin -- arguably the team's offensive MVP -- before the SEC title game last year:

They wanted him to play.
They couldn't clear him.
He didn't play.

(To my ongoing point: The Gators still won.)

Read 'em both.

Tebow Recovery: "Ahead of Schedule"

Tim Tebow is "ahead of schedule" in his recovery from Saturday's concussion.

That's from a tweet from the Orlando Sentinel, citing unnamed team sources.

Now, you never know what's truth, what's spin, what's meant to get into Les Miles' head, what's meant to set up what will inevitably be a controversial decision to play (or not play) him....

Still: Let's take it at face value, and let's stick with the important point:

It matters less that he is ahead of schedule as it relates to playing again than he is ahead of schedule in recovery, for its own sake.

Tebow Fans: Welcome OnlyGators.com!

There are two invaluable Twitter feeds for any Gator fan: OSGators (from the Orlando Sentinel, plus their individual tweeps) and OnlyGators, Florida football media's Rookie of the Year.

Now, OnlyGators has expanded beyond Twitter (and Facebook) to launch its own site, naturally named: OnlyGators.com. Be sure to add it to your RSS reader or daily rotation.

Tebow Update: No Decision Until... When?

It is obvious that Urban Meyer and Florida's medical staff won't make a decision about Tim Tebow's status until late next week -- perhaps even gameday.

John Brantley's dad has the same idea, per the Orlando Sentinel: "I wouldn't be surprised if they take it all the way until game time."

The primary reason is, of course, it will be tough enough to figure out Tebow's readiness in the full 14 days from the concussion, let alone a moment sooner.

The secondary reason is strategic: It wouldn't do Florida any good to reveal to LSU which QB will be playing -- the systems they run will be distinct, so why not make LSU burn limited practice time prepping for an offensive set they won't see?

I stick by my assessment: For all his inexperience, John Brantley is exceptionally talented -- when combined with UF's defense, RBs and special teams, Brantley is talented enough to lead the Gators to a win. (Yes: Even on the road at LSU, something that not even Tebow has done.)

That's all he needs to be: Good enough. That's how good the rest of the team is.

Tebow Injury Update: Levity Via EDSBS

The Tim Tebow concussion discussion has been extremely serious, since Saturday (has it only been 6 days?) -- EDSBS was out in front on just how serious the situation was.

But one of the joys of EDSBS is that Orson has a way of also being able to take issues of gravitas and find a little fun in them -- almost an antidote to the mostly maudlin commentary.

Thus: The EDSBS Tim Tebow Concussion Watch, which features a scale of lucidity that ranges from Gary Busey, through Mr. Bill, Lou Holtz, Emmitt Smith, Matthew McConaghey, Malcolm Gladwell and, ultimately, the big blue guy from "Watchmen." In that order.

Now, back to your regularly scheduled maudlin hand-wringing...

Tebow Quote of the Day: Michael Wilbon

The Washington Post's (and PTI's) Michael Wilbon, on the "Should Tebow play?" decision:

I'm not about to suggest that the University of Florida doctors and trainers would take any liberties with Tebow. But I've always thought that players, or their parents, should have access to independent doctors, at the school's expense.

In a case like this, wouldn't Tebow be better off if he wanted an opinion from a physician not compromised by whether or not he should play at LSU? And suppose the two doctors disagree, which is often the case with concussions. Then Tebow would have multiple opinions to consult. And it wouldn't be a bad thing if Tebow wound up with Troy Aikman's phone number. The best information for Tebow might come from a Hall of Famer whose career ended early because of concussions.

Wilbon isn't necessarily close to the situation, but from his influential position in the PTI chair (a chair I have sat in! while being on TV, even!) it will drive the national opinion about it.

Tebow Injury Update: New Video of Hit

This likely won't be up long, but this new field-level camera angle (presumably from the stands) made its way to YouTube. SEC likely to yank it shortly, but for now, here it is. (via Buster Sports)



The Buster Sports take seems to indicate this angle makes the hit look worse -- disagree. The original ESPN replay angles provided a clearer angle than this. Doesn't make it any less disturbing.

Tebow AM Update: Meyer's Gaming, Cont'd

Great read this morning from Alligator Alley about the almost-assured gamesmanship from Urban Meyer leading up to the LSU game.

It's a good follow-up to the TimTeblog post here yesterday afternoon -- that Meyer's use of the media to express optimism about Tebow's participation in the LSU game is as much about getting into Les Miles' head (and game prep) as it is to update the world on Tim's status.

(Come on: AA! Show us some love!)